Matt's Picks (5 Live)
I went ahead and added a copy/paste shortcut to my Microsoft Word for "Fade the Twins on the road" as it will get plenty of use on my reliable Commodore 64. I won't win them all -- and won't just blindly do it -- but certainly expect many. Didn't see anything from Wednesday's easy win to think the Royals lose behind Cole Ragans on Thursday. He disappointed in 2025 but his one start vs. the Twins was a dominant win. Minnesota now has dropped three in a row by multiple runs but there's a light at the end of the tunnel as the club finally gets home for the first time after this one. Easy to be looking forward to that.
The Bucks are sitting just about everyone tonight in the second of a B2B, which should mean a lot of minutes for Jericho Sims as he's the only true center available if not a very good one. The 27-year-old has had a few nice games of late when he has gotten minutes, including 17 PR last night in 29 minutes.
On paper, a horrific spot for the Knicks on a three-game skid, in the second of a back-to-back and at the end of a trip. Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson get the night off. New York is 2-4 without Brunson this season. The Grizzlies obviously aren't winning but if they try even a little should be able to cover two touchdowns at home.
Bit of a mixed bag in the early going -- stupid Reds bullpen, yay Cubs -- so I will add a night play. As I've said a few times, I'll be fading the Twins an absolute ton on the road this season and the only time a bit concerned is when ace Joe Ryan is on the hill, which is tonight. So I do like the Under as well, but that Twins lineup is so bad I still don't believe Minny should be favored in Kansas City. Royals counterpart Noah Cameron was terrific as a rookie in 2025 at 9-7 with a 2.99 ERA. Against the Twins, he was 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings. It might rain.
The Cubs aren't hitting a ton yet but this is a naturally tricky spot for the Halos at the end of a season-opening six-game trip and ahead of the team's first off day and then the home opener. I'll just assume 1-2 regulars get this getaway game off. Lefty Yusei Kikuchi was hit around decent in his first 2026 outing. New Cub Alex Bregman has excellent splits off him. Chicago's Matthew Boyd was hammered in his 2026 debut but was utterly dominant at Wrigley in 2025 so hopefully that a one-off. No Angels have great splits off him. Winds apparently howling in Wednesday.
It's a getaway game for both and a few regulars on each side are out. The White Sox's lineup in spots 5-9 look like an easy 10 outs the first two times through for Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. He looked in his previous Cy Young form in the opener with seven shutout innings of Colorado. The game total is only 7.5 so this seems like it should be 4 and indeed most of our books have that. Surprisingly, the first two games of this series with punchless lineups saw double-digit runs scored. I think they will regress to the mean this afternoon.
Paul Skenes on Wednesday for the Bucs, so we get why they are favored as his career numbers against Cincinnati are insane. But the Reds' Andrew Abbott is pretty darn good himself ,and his career numbers vs. Pittsburgh are quite good too. Still prefer that Cincy lineup slightly and at home so one-run loss works just fine. Too good of a price at +1.5 to turn down.
Extremely good price on Arizona's Carlos Santana. I didn't think he'd start tonight considering he's 2-for-23 career with five strikeouts vs. Tigers starter Casey Mize. On the year, Santana is just 1-for-12 with three Ks. He could definitely be pinch-hit for later in the game.
Only 9.5 on our board (9s) so I'll throw a half down. These clubs combined for 15 runs in Game 1, but a much better pitching matchup tonight it would appear in Casey Mize vs. Brandon Pfaadt. Not a huge fan of either lineup overall. Pfaadt had a 3.24 ERA at home last season and no Tigers have seen him much. Ditto Arizona batters vs. Mize. Well, Carlos Santana has 23 at-bats against Mize but two hits for a .087 average.
Seattle has a single win on this six-game trip that concludes in Edmonton. The Kraken have lost their past six trips to Rogers Place and are just 5-9-2 since the Olympic break. Joey Daccord (should be him -- Kraken taking forever to make it official) has lost three in a row and has a 4.52 GAA this year against the Oilers. For Edmonton, Matt Savoie has stepped up in place of the injured Leon Draisaitl with goals in three consecutive games. Connor Ingram has won back-to-back outings in net.