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Matt Severance
Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 59 NBA ML PICKS
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Record: 42-17
# 1 nba Expert
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Memphis 105 @ L.A. Clippers 117 | 04/22 | 2:00 AM UTC

Memphis +102

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Second of a back-to-back for the Clippers, who came back to win Tuesday in Portland. We already know that Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are out for L.A. again here, and Coach Ty Lue usually rests Paul George and Rajon Rondo in the second of a B2B. Thus, the Grizzlies could be favored by tipoff despite a few key injuries of their own, but we'll take them.

+1408 42-17 IN LAST 59 NBA ML PICKS
+200 5-2 IN LAST 7 MEM ML PICKS
+18 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC ML PICKS

Montreal 4 @ Edmonton 3 | 04/22 | 2:00 AM UTC

Edmonton -125

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Edmonton beat visiting Montreal 4-1 on Monday behind a four-goal third period. Habs No. 1 netminder Carey Price stopped all seven shots in the opening 20 minutes but didn’t come out after the intermission and will miss at least a week in concussion protocols. So that presumably means Jake Allen again Wednesday, and he has been a bit shaky of late -- including allowing three of the four goals Monday. The Canadiens are now 3-10 in their last 13 road games.

+1904 118-73 IN LAST 191 NHL PICKS
+634 11-4 IN LAST 15 EDM ML PICKS

San Jose 2 @ Vegas 5 | 04/22 | 1:30 AM UTC

Vegas -270

WIN

ANALYSIS: I generally try to stay away from such massive favorites unless I am parlaying, but I don't see much of a way the Sharks can win this game -- they might stay within a goal, though, so we won't touch the puckline. San Jose is on a six-game skid and playing a fourth road game in six nights. Vegas has won seven straight overall and is 6-0 vs. the Sharks this year. The goaltending matchup looks lopsided: San Jose rookie Josef Korenar in his second career start and fourth appearance vs. future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury, who is 20-10-0 this season with a 2.09 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. He is 4-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA vs. San Jose.

+1904 118-73 IN LAST 191 NHL PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 SJ ML PICKS
+200 8-4 IN LAST 12 LV ML PICKS

N.Y. Mets 4 @ Chi. Cubs 16 | 04/21 | 11:40 PM UTC

Chi. Cubs +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: We won on the Cubs on the runline at -150 yesterday when they beat the Mets 3-1, and I see no reason why to change anything here at the same price. The pitching matchup was fairly even on Tuesday in good terms and it's fairly even here in bad terms with New York starting lefty David Peterson and the Cubs Zach Davies. At least Davies has had plenty of success in previous years, and Chicago is 3-0 vs. southpaws this year. The only Met hitting right now is Brandon Nimmo, and he's getting this one off.

+926 17-6 IN LAST 23 MLB ATS PICKS
+310 3-0 IN LAST 3 NYM ATS PICKS
+54 2-1 IN LAST 3 CHC ATS PICKS

Golden St. 114 @ Washington 118 | 04/21 | 11:00 PM UTC

Washington +116

WIN

ANALYSIS: Steph Curry is on a ridiculous run right now, but the Warriors are at the end of a grueling road trip and Curry has to run out of gas at some point -- his William Hill Sportsbook Over/Under total for this game is 35.5 points, which is crazy high. The Dubs are without two key reserves in Juan Toscano-Anderson and Damion Lee. Washington is without Rui Hachimura, but I think Curry chasing around either Russell Westbrook or Bradley Beal (or both) all night will take a toll. Washington, on a five-game winning streak, wins in a slight upset. The spread is so low, there's little point taking it and better value on the moneyline.

+1408 42-17 IN LAST 59 NBA ML PICKS
+541 7-1 IN LAST 8 GS ML PICKS
+426 6-1 IN LAST 7 WAS ML PICKS