Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Last play of the NBA season. Been pretty, pretty good (Larry David) profit-wise. Didn't start great but about after the AS break, did decent. I'm a TJ McConnell fan. Might be because he reminds me of me -- slow white dude with not huge talent, can't jump over a piece of Dunder Mifflin letter stock but plays hard and can shoot. And McConnell has obliterated this number in back-to-back games as perhaps Indiana's best player in both of them. Maybe Rick Carlisle found some weird matchup that works. See you around Oct. 21 for next season. (I'm sure I pick an exhibition game or two beforehand to get ready.)
Not a big fan of that Boston lineup today with Wilyer Abreu sitting - he had two hits and an RBI in each of the first two games of the series. Who the heck is Nate Eaton? I'm not sure Nate's own friends have him in fantasy baseball but he's starting at the hot corner today. The Giants' Robbie Ray is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA at home. The Red Sox have a good OPS vs. lefties like Ray but a lot of that is thanks to guys like Abreu, Rafael Devers (now with SF) and Alex Bregman (still on IL). Won't go crazy because Boston pitcher Lucas Giolito has been good of late but also has a few starts this year where pounded.
I am a big Logan Gilbert fan but I can't believe the Cubs are getting +1.5 at home at a decent price against an inferior club. Yeah, the M's hurt us a little Friday with the "Big Dumper" going yard twice. I'm pretty much always going to say "Big Dumper" where possible because I think it is easily the best nickname out there. I don't think Cubs starter Colin Rea is very good, but his home splits are much better. And we don't even need a win.
Obviously no weather concerns in Toronto; the retractable roof at Rogers Centre is rarely open. Jays starter Chris Bassitt (5-0, 2.74 ERA at home) is more than capable of five shutout innings against a bad lineup so as long as the White Sox's "Yo" Adrian Houser isn't terrible, and he hasn't been yet, then we should at worst push here. A couple of Jays regulars are sitting led by former World Series MVP George Springer.
At this price, may as well punch to 3.5 -- remember the Earl Weaver Orioles? They played for a three-run homer. That's kinda why I think getting over 3 is important in a scenario like this, but I'm fine with +2.5. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has slightly worse road splits and a 4.25 ERA career at Coors Field. The D'backs have a few injury concerns as well. I honestly could not care less what the final score is, but I believe the Rockies are capable of losing, say, 8-6 or something like that.
Was thinking of taking the rest of the weekend off because I am slumping. But this happens; to my recollection, there are about three stretches in a given MLB season that last a few weeks where there are bonkers results -- we are definitely in that mix currently. Win here and I'm out. Quick aside, I could not respect Shohei Ohtani more for waving off his bench last night. Hard not to like that guy Dodgers fan or not. The Orioles are playing better, but Zach Eflin has a 5.18 road ERA and a decent number of Yankees have good splits off him, although Aaron Judge is not one. I like that NYY blew a late lead (what I'm talking about) and lost last night.
If given the option, I would play -1 on most MLB games over -150ish. This is below that number, but I'm just so happy to have the offering that I'll go ahead and risk the push. San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong has a 1.78 ERA at home. And we of course get some Rafael Devers payback fun today.
Prepared to lose this (only gonna sprinkle a little) because the Snakes are in Denver, but don't know that I've seen a cheaper price on Under 1.5 hits ever. Granted, I was in diapers or not alive when the likes of Rod Carew, George Brett or Tony Gwynn were chasing .400 ... and also pretty sure O/U 1.5 props didn't exist then. But you get the point. Ketel Marte is batting .289 on the season and is 8-for-23 career off Rox starter Austin Gomber. So I get it. Still playing something. It's not easy to get two hits. Sometimes I go an entire RBI Baseball game without allowing two hits, but I do have a wicked curve in that game.
It will be warm in the Twin Cities -- I remember Midwest summers; they lasted about 4 days -- but otherwise it appears not great hitting weather with winds in a fair amount from right field at Target Field. The MLB weather site I go to first says "very poor" forecast for hitting but also has an ad for Enron on it, so not sure whether to trust. The forecast might be from June 20, 2001. It looks to be an excellent pitching matchup between fire-balling Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski (five scoreless in MLB debut) and Twins ace Joe Ryan (2.93 ERA). I will look at 5 as I tend to think that at worst pushes. This will likely all depend on Misiorowski.
The White Sox were swept in a home doubleheader on Thursday. They have lost eight in a row, and the bullpen, not that it's any good, is wrecked after Thursday. Today's starting pitcher, Davis Martin, is 1-5 with a 4.62 ERA away. The Jays were pummeled at home yesterday by Arizona but at least reset the bullpen. This ML would be well over -200 if not for Jays journeyman Spencer Turnbull (1-0, 2.08 ERA) on the mound. He probably only is out there three innings or so. Toronto is 10 games over .500 at home and Chicago 7-31 on the road. Would really like -1 here too.
Playing just a little here as I always like to have an opinion on a Cubs home Friday matinee if possible -- I can hear the Old Style theme song in my dome thinking about a beer-filled sunny bleacher day at Wrigley Field; and Old Style is truly horrific, but it sure tastes good in that scenario. I do have a bit of a man-crush on Seattle starter George Kirby so can't say I love this. But with the winds blowing out today, that would sure appear to favor the much better offensive team in the Cubs. Pitcher Matt Boyd is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home.
If Tyrese Haliburton plays 40+ minutes on Thursday for Indiana, this probably won't win. But if he's limited at all with the calf injury, much less somehow doesn't play, then TJ McConnell would easily be the No. 1 beneficiary. He played arguably his best game of the playoffs in Game 5 as well (22 PA). Our model has McConnell at 16.2 PA for what is likely Indiana's season finale.
I wanted to go into Witness Protection after Wednesday. Holy Moly Batman was that ugly. Even some teams I didn't play that I nearly did also lost. Hopefully only such day of season. We are into the weird Bermuda Triangle stretch where guys are looking toward the break. As bad as things have been for the Yanks of late, I expect a massive bounce-back today. The Bombers crush lefties and face one in Tyler Anderson, he of the 6.31 road ERA and 9.00 ERA this month overall. No Angels have very good splits off New York's Carlos Rodon (8-5, 3.01 ERA).
I believe the Nats are playing for Manager Dave Martinez's job today. He's probably gone after the season regardless, but if they lose an 11th straight game and third in a row at home to historically bad Colorado, then he should be fired as should the entire front office, the ball boys and the people who sell programs (they still have those?). Rox starter German Marquez has an ERA near 8.00 on the road. His team hasn't won four straight games since May 2024. Arguably Colorado's three best hitters in Hunter Goodwin, Thairo Estrada and Ryan McMahon are sitting. It's almost as if the Rox are getting a little cocky today ...