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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past two NBA seasons, Matt has returned $3,215. And over the past three college basketball seasons, Matt is up $2,704. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    LAST 31 NFL ML PICKS
    +1070
    RECORD: 22-9-0
    +1070
    22-9 IN LAST 31 NFL ML PICKS

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    Matt's Picks (4 Live)

    Dec 03 2023, 9:25 pm UTC
    League
    Cleveland
    @ L.A. Rams
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit0.5
    +1070
    22-9 in Last 31 NFL ML Picks
    +295
    4-1 in Last 5 CLE ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Browns could be very short-handed in LA. ...

    Pick Made: Nov 27, 5:21 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 9:25 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    @ Philadelphia
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit1.0
    +712.5
    30-19-1 in Last 50 NFL Picks
    +397.5
    9-5 in Last 14 PHI ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Should the Eagles really be home dogs vs. the Niners? ...

    Pick Made: Nov 28, 11:57 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 6:00 pm UTC
    League
    Arizona
    @ Pittsburgh
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit1.0
    +712.5
    30-19-1 in Last 50 NFL Picks
    Analysis:

    Minkah Fitzpatrick returns for Pittsburgh vs. Arizona. ...

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 12:23 am UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 6:00 pm UTC
    League
    L.A. Chargers
    @ New England
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit1.0
    +665
    25-18-1 in Last 44 NFL Picks
    +442.5
    14-8 in Last 22 NFL O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Weather could be a factor in Chargers-Patriots. ...

    Pick Made: Nov 29, 4:38 am UTC

    Matt's Past Picks

    Dec 02 2023, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    New York
    119
    @ Toronto
    106
    Money LineToronto -140
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +710
    13-1 in Last 14 NBA Picks
    +360
    8-1 in Last 9 NBA ML Picks
    +1276
    36-15 in Last 51 NY ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I was leaning Raptors regardless simply as the Knicks played last night in what should have been a scrimmage but ended up being a down-to-the wire battle against the horrid Pistons. Julius Randle, who played 38 minutes (Jalen Brunson played 40 -- ah, Tom Thibodeau, the Derrick Rose ruiner in Chicago), has been downgraded to questionable. This number is available (went up about 10-15 cents) but clearly would shift in either direction if ruled out. When a guy is downgraded day of, that usually means out.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 8:02 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Louisville
    6
    @ Florida State
    16
    Over / UnderUNDER 47 -110
    WIN
    Unit0.5
    +1436.5
    60-45-1 in Last 106 CFB Picks
    +724.5
    12-5 in Last 17 CFB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    So now Florida State's backup/new starting QB is in some question? Wow. I already was leaning Under the total simply because the weather in Charlotte looks like ... London with rain and fog expected. Guess we'll just play the total now in case Tate Rodemaker does sit, although I can't believe that would really happen (obviously if he's hurt, he's hurt, but why are we finding this out now?) and it might be a bit of gamesmanship. I'm still not sure FSU doesn't win even with third-string freshman Brock Glenn but then I'd truly love the Under.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 7:47 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 7:00 pm UTC
    League
    Tampa Bay
    1
    @ Dallas
    8
    Over / UnderUNDER 6.5 -124
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +420
    31-17 in Last 48 NHL Picks
    +244.5
    35-26-3 in Last 64 NHL O/U Picks
    +206
    6-3-4 in Last 13 TB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    FanDuel opened this Saturday matinee at 5.5 but did its patented flip so I'll just take 6.5 now in case it goes back, and I'm certainly not online as much on weekends to monitor plus the early start. Shoot, at 2 p.m. ET on a Saturday, I still may be cleaning glitter off myself. You don't want to know. It's two of the world's best goalies in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jake Oettinger. That hasn't been confirmed yet, but Oettinger got the last game off so I guarantee he starts barring something unforeseen. No reason why Vasy would not play.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 6:43 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Memphis
    108
    @ Dallas
    94
    PropKyrie Irving UNDER 40.5 Total Points + Assists -118
    WIN
    Unit0.5
    +400
    5-0 in Last 5 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Normally my first inclination when a star like Luka Doncic is ruled out is to hammer the Over props (points, etc.) of the No. 2 on said team, which in this case is Kyrie Irving. But am I reading this right: 40.5? So he gets 30 and 10 and we still win? That also would entail Kyrie actually caring/trying hard for a full game and we KNOW that's not happening. Also don't think he's comfortable being the alpha male. But I may never do an optimistic bet on Kyrie because he's such a tool and doesn't realize how lucky he is. And if he's shooting more, his assists obviously should go down.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 5:55 pm UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    St. Peter's
    72
    @ Niagara
    67
    Money LineNiagara -122
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1226.5
    61-30 in Last 91 CBB Picks
    +916
    34-14 in Last 48 CBB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I miss when Fridays meant clubs, chasing the fairer sex, etc. Now? Sadly, it's all about the Niagaras and Quinnipiacs and Fairfields and Riders of the world this time of year. Feel like the Golden Bachelor and I'm decades from there. But, hey, give me a really grainy stream of any of these games I bet and a little Jager on ice and it's all good (with a win). The SL Model has Niagara by nine. Three home games matter most in college basketball: Overall opener, conference opener and finale. This is the MAAC opener for the Purple Eagles, who are the top shooting team in the league. Why aren't they called the Falls? Saint Peter's is last in FG percentage.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 5:03 pm UTC
    Dec 03 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Louisville
    6
    @ Florida State
    16
    Money LineFlorida State -125
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1436.5
    60-45-1 in Last 106 CFB Picks
    +1264
    28-12 in Last 40 CFB ML Picks
    +22
    2-1 in Last 3 FSU ML Picks
    Analysis:

    About +210 if you parlayed this and FSU -140 to get into the playoff. Anyone who thinks an unbeaten champion of a Power 5 conference isn't getting into the playoff just because of the Jordan Travis injury ... I'll be happy to take any wagers. Should Texas not get in because star RB Jonathon Brooks is also lost for the year? Talking head nonsense. I despise the Noles, but they absolutely would deserve it. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker isn't some freshman walk-on from Ridgemont High (alright Hamilton!) as the RS junior has been in Tallahassee since 2020 (my condolences). FSU has the superior defense and that it will be rainy in Charlotte should play into the Noles' hands. May have to ponder Under, too.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 6:24 am UTC
    Dec 02 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Oregon
    31
    @ Washington
    34
    Point SpreadWashington +10 -105
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1436.5
    60-45-1 in Last 106 CFB Picks
    +300
    3-0 in Last 3 CFB ATS Picks
    +190
    3-1 in Last 4 OREG ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Was only playing if it got to 10. Is Oregon better? Clearly oddsmakers think so and if compare common opponents, etc., there's evidence despite the first meeting's result. But the Ducks aren't THAT much better than unbeaten UW at a neutral site. This reminds of last year's title game when everyone assumed rolling USC would avenge a regular-season loss to Utah. How'd that work out? Maybe this is just wishful thinking because this should be the most entertaining of all the power conference title games. I'm quite sure Kalen DeBoer has been using this disrespect all week. UO may be without injured starting CB Jahlil Lawrence, who has recorded 27.0 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, one interception and one sack this season.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 4:07 am UTC
    Dec 01 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Milwaukee
    113
    @ Chicago
    120
    PropCoby White OVER 15.5 Total Points -128
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +400
    5-0 in Last 5 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I'm at the point where I hate the (current iteration) Bulls, which I never thought I would say. MJ's heyday was my favorite sports time ever. They are a true disaster and now Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are both out against a bitter rival. Whatever man, just trade them. Someone has to score tonight and Coby White thinks he's a gunner. Should get to this even if it takes 20 shots.

    Pick Made: Dec 01, 12:44 am UTC
    Dec 01 2023, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Atlanta
    137
    @ San Antonio
    135
    Point SpreadSan Antonio +7.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit0.5
    +710
    13-1 in Last 14 NBA Picks
    +274
    7-3 in Last 10 NBA ATS Picks
    +395
    5-1 in Last 6 SA ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    It would be so Chargers .... err Hawks to lose to a team on a 12-game losing streak but this does feel like a bit of a tricky spot for Atlanta following back-to-back double-digit losses to fellow Eastern Conference playoff contenders and the fourth game of a five-game trip with a big one at Milwaukee up next. All the key Spurs have been cleared to play. I truly thought about playing the San Antonio ML, which means Gregg and the Pops will be down by 20 at the first media timeout. Our model has Atlanta by 5.

    Pick Made: Nov 30, 11:53 pm UTC
    Dec 01 2023, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    UNCW
    66
    @ East Carolina
    74
    Over / UnderUNDER 144 -110
    WIN
    Unit0.5
    +1226.5
    61-30 in Last 91 CBB Picks
    +22.5
    4-3 in Last 7 CBB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Key injury news here in that ECU's Ezra Ausar is out -- I nearly played East Carolina ML and glad I didn't as he averages 13.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Not saying the Pirates lose, but if they were on the road I'd now take UNC Wilmington. Instead, let's throw a sprinkle on the total as all the models liked Under even before this news.

    Pick Made: Nov 30, 11:26 pm UTC
    Dec 01 2023, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Indiana
    132
    @ Miami
    142
    Money LineMiami -140
    WIN
    Unit0.5
    +710
    13-1 in Last 14 NBA Picks
    +360
    8-1 in Last 9 NBA ML Picks
    +827.5
    20-8 in Last 28 IND ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I truly hate backing the Heat because they go through such lulls in every game that it drives me crazy. And I tell you this, I am so glad this is not an In-Season Tournament game because Miami's court on TV looked like Satan's bowling alley. I still don't see colors right. Indiana is down at least one big man in Jalen Smith and possibly another in Isaiah Jackson as well as backup point guard TJ McConnell (latter two are questionable). Jimmy Butler is good to go and that's what we were waiting on.

    Pick Made: Nov 30, 11:01 pm UTC