

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Picks
5 Live PicksCan the Cards hold the Rams to 34? ...
How will Rashid Shaheed fare vs. Denver? ...
Can the Flames hang within two in Vegas? ...
Our model has 63 total points. ...
The Flyers are the worst team in the NHL. ...
This is Minnesota's only home game of the six-game preseason, so if the Wolves are going to play all their main guys a fair amount one last time before next week's season opener, it's surely tonight and not Friday in Chicago. I don't see any starters even as iffy. The Pistons haven't had Cade Cunningham or Jalen Duren yet, and I'm hoping they are held out until Detroit's preseason and home finale Friday. Maybe the Wolves are still angry they were swept in the 2025-26 regular season by the Pistons.
There are two ways to look at tonight in my opinion regarding the starting pitchers. Maybe both are pulled early since the bullpens are both rested. But this is the first of three straight days with games (presuming there is a Game 5). So I think the managers would prefer to see their starters go at least five to help out the 'pens. Our model has Robert Gasser at 5.6 IP. I don't know about that, but he has gone at least 3.2 IP every outing this year but one.
New York FC is winless in three and remains a bit short in the midfield due to injury. It has totaled just three goals in that span and sits 16 points lower in the Eastern Conference table than Leo Messi and Inter Miami, so this ML seems moderately reasonable. DNB is definitely too expensive. Messi's club leads the MLS in goals with 68 and he does individually with 23. A win clinches a playoff spot apparently. Inter won 3-2 at Yankee Stadium in March -- Messi had a goal -- and is unbeaten in the past seven (3W) in the series. I'd imagine only a draw beats us; Inter Miami is unbeaten in its past six at home in all competitions.
Today's Atletico Madrid-Man United match was why I prefer DNB so much. Atleti was up in the 78th minute and I'm like, well, I'm not losing this surely but will I win it? And thankfully did. Made watching the last 25 minutes or so all the more enjoyable. Let's do similar Wednesday on Real Betis, which is tied for second in La Liga. The hosts have lost only one of their last 11 UEFA competition group stage/league phase matches (eight wins) and have scored two or more goals in their last nine home European games. Porto is unbeaten domestically but lost 2-0 at home to Man City in its league phase opener. The visitors have one win in their past eight in Spain.
I would greatly prefer -1 here but those are so hard to find now -- regulation line is -105 on the Ducks and that'd be fine be me too. That said, this feels quite low considering the winless Flames have lost all five games by multiple goals. No, I'm still not playing -1.5. Anaheim has a few injuries at forward, which probably did lower this some, but No. 1 goalie Lukas Dostal (3-1-0, 2.95 GAA) has been confirmed. The Ducks defense will get a boost as Drew Helleson will be making his season debut off injury. Anaheim just won 4-2 in Calgary on Saturday behind backup Ville Husso. The model has a 1.4-goal win tonight, which is unusual.
We get another early start to college football with this Conference USA matchup on Tuesday. Jacksonville State is unbeaten at home and impressively won at defending league champion Kennesaw State last Wednesday. Jax State's 12-1 weekday CUSA record is the best in the league over the last three years. FIU has lost both road games by double digits. The model has the hosts by 3.
Such a great and frankly unlikely win by Cleveland in Game 1 down 2-0 entering the sixth. I didn't even bother to check again until morning, assuming that was in the bank. Nice 6:30 a.m. WTH!! wake-up moment. Tampa Bay hasn't lost back-to-back at home in almost two months exactly. Most of its top relievers led by closer Bryan Baker were not used in the opener. Tonight starter Freddy Peralta has been dynamite for weeks, while counterpart Parker Messick was shaky in the ALDS.
Both No. 1 goalies are starting in Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy and New York's Dylan Garand. We all know how good the future Hall of Famer Vasy is in any given season (2.29 GAA so far in 2026-27). The rookie Garand has been lights out since taking over for out-for-season Igor Shesterkin. Garand is third in the league with a 1.20 GAA. When these clubs met also at MSG on Oct. 1, there were six total goals scored with Vasy and Igor in the nets.
The winless Flyers are easily the worst offensive team in the NHL with eight total goals scored so they are pretty much an auto-fade Under 6.5 ... and 7.5 in some cases. Seattle is among the NHL scoring leaders but I'm not buying that as the Kraken didn't go get Connor McDavid or anything in the offseason. Maybe dragging a bit too in a third road game in five nights. The SL Model has this has the lowest-scoring game of the night. It's our only 6.5.
It's Frozen Frenzy Tuesday in the NHL! Might have to play at least a little something on all 16 games off site. Second of a back-to-back for Buffalo, which already has ruled out top blueliner and captain Rasmus Dahlin after he left Monday's win over Florida injured. The Sabres have played just one road game thus far and lost that by three goals. Both of their goalies played Monday, and that's not ideal in the front end of a B2B. These teams played a great seven-game conference semifinal back in May, won by Montreal.

