

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Picks


Vitor Petrino is 3-0 since moving to heavyweight. ...
Spurs are likely missing a few players in its opener at Brentford. ...
Here. We. Go!
CBS Sports Network game at 8 ET from Houston. I have no idea how many NWSL teams make the playoffs -- dang it, I hate not knowing things so had to look (8) -- and neither of these clubs likely get there. The Stars, who recently made a coaching change, are the league's worst club with just 13 points through 19 matches and astonishingly only nine goals scored. And leading scorer Jordyn Huitema (4G) is done for the season. Top assister Ryan Connaughton (2A) will miss a second straight game. Houston sits 11th in the table, so the playoffs aren't impossible, and no key players are out. The Dash can spread the scoring wealth and have had six different players score game-winners so far.
Teams are separated by a point in the Eastern Conference table but while FC Cincinnati isn't listing a single player on the availability report tonight, New York FC has eight guys out led by second-leading goalscorer Hannes "Teen" Wolf (5G, 2A), leading assister Maxi Moralez (6A, 1G) and top defender Thiago Martins. At least that's what ChatGPT told me; obviously I went and double-checked when it mentioned Pele, so it actually took more time. FC Cincinnati is 10-3-1 at home in all competitions this season and won the past three there in MLS action. These teams drew 4-4 in late April. Those three NY guys I mentioned all played.
With Carlos Rodon lasting only four innings in Tuesday's win the for the Yankees, the bullpen was used plenty including pretty much all high-leverage guys, so that may matter here. Starter Will Warren (6-6, 4.42 ERA) dominated Baltimore in two early-season starts, but he was great back then. Not so much lately with a 7.71 ERA in 9.1 innings this month. The O's were hot and got back the WC race, so perhaps some urgency here on a two-game skid. Chris Bassitt is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA at home. Very solid price at +1.5 especially with our model projecting a win.
Happy to report as of this morning that we have team totals for MLB, so let's try one. The model has the Twins scoring 4.5 today at Target Field, where it's pretty decent hitting weather. It's only second big-league start of the year for Atlanta's AJ Smith-Shawver off TJS. His first: 4.1 IP, 2 runs on July 29 at the Mets. Minny scored exactly four in winning the first two of the series against better starting pitchers and has scored at least four in five of the past eight. Maybe for the first time in my MLB betting life, I'm rooting for extra innings!
Frankly nothing short of unacceptable for a team trying to get a playoff spot/division title with 40 days left in the season, like Houston, to lose a home to a bad Angels team. L.A. is tied for the overall worst mark and the has the fewest road wins with 20. Rookie pitcher George Klaussen (1-1, 5.22) was really good last time out but horrible in two road starts. And now I want a Claussen pickle, which are the bomb. I will admit Houston pitcher Cristian Javier has not been very good overall, but he pitched well in Anaheim a few weeks ago.
Probably asking for trouble adding a third game with road teams doing pretty well lately, but that Washington lineup today is horrendous after leadoff hitter CJ Abrams. The Nats have lost five of six and look more and more disinterested by the day. Rookie lefty Jackson Kent was knocked around a bit in his MLB debut last time out. A rookie pitcher in his first road outing in the Show is always something I like. Texas has lost five of six but those were away. It is 32-27 at home. Pitcher Cal Quantrill (4-4, 3.44 ERA) is competent.
The Royals saved Monday from being an MLB disaster but this has little to do with them and mostly about the Athletics, who clearly already have started thinking about tee times on Sept. 28, the day after the RS. Their pitching staff might be worse than Colorado's at this point, and it's Jack Perkins (2-9, 7.27 ERA) tonight. In his past three, he has allowed 18 runs in just 13.1 innings. The last time the A's won any game he pitched whether staring or relieving was June 10. Now that's a jinx! The Royals at least got a look at home for two innings back in April when he was a pure reliever. If the A's switch out Perkins, this voids.
First leg of a Champions League qualifying playoff tie with a 3 p.m. ET start as Dinamo Zagreb, the most successful Croatian Football League side ever, welcomes Viking FK of the Norwegian Eliteseren. The winner of the tie gets to the league phase. The reigning Croatian champions are in Europe for the 21st season running, while it's the first time Viking has reached the UCL since 1992-93. This is the teams' first-ever fixture, and Viking's first match against a Croatian team. Dinamo Zagreb is unbeaten all-time at home vs. Norwegian clubs (W3 D1), outscoring them 9-3. Dinamo also won its last UCL qualifying two-leg tie this year quite easily by a combined score of 7-1. Viking is off a road domestic loss last Friday.
Similar to Pittsburgh, Kansas City gets two key guys back from injury in Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino. Lineup actually looks not terrible for the first time in weeks. Sacramento's sure does, though, and the A's have lost the past nine times that Mason Barnett (1-3, 6.16 ERA) has taken the hill in any form. Counterpart Michael Wacha has a 2.91 home ERA. This is clearly too high for a pretty bad Royals team but you know -1.5 isn't an option for me. If you don't mind the push, -1 is about 44 cents cheaper. K.C. has been solid at home, it just can't win away or beat lefties (and that's not Barnett).
MLB has been a bit perplexing lately, so I'll switch to a dog (albeit favored in this format). Pittsburgh gets two key guys back off the injury in Nick Gonzales (missed past two) and Oneil Cruz (last played June 6). It also gets top reliever Yohan Ramirez (6-3, 2.67 ERA) back from the paternity list. Detroit has lost three straight and those were home. Framber Valdez has been wildly inconsistent and batters are hitting .270 off him away and .276 at night. The Bucs will use an opener in Carmen Mlodzinski (3.79 ERA). Our model has Pittsburgh winning. But I'll take a one-run loss as the Pirates are a stellar 20-9 ATS as home dogs. No Spencer Torkelson (20 HR, 63 RBI) for Tigers.
Last season, Elche finished as La Liga's worst away team with just eight road points and 13 total goals. Deportivo was promoted from the Segunda Division from last campaign so can't say I know a ton about that side yet, but in three August friendlies ahead of this opener none topped 2.5 total goals scored. Los Herculinos allowed the fourth-fewest goals in Segunda in 2025-26 with 44 in 42 matches and kept 11 clean sheets.
In a bit of a rut at the moment in MLB (mainly on the dang Dodgers), but I can't ignore it when the Mariners' Bryan Woo pitches away from Seattle. Great there in 2026 but 1-8 with a 6.22 ERA away. Why don't the M's let him follow an opener or something? A few Astros have good splits off him led by Christian Walker (.385, 2 2B, HR). Houston owns an .859 OPS against right-handed pitching at home over the last 30 days, best in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is in terrific shape because the team didn't use anyone of note in Saturday's blowout loss. A few injured regulars are out for the Mariners led again by outfielder Taylor Ward.
