Matt's Picks (4 Live)
The Pirates are playing much better since Don Kelly took over. ...
The Mets have the fewest home losses in the majors. ...
Matt's Past Picks
The Athletics are playing a bit better of late but have dropped 11 straight on the road. They have lost the last four starts of lefty Jeffrey Springs anywhere. Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has given up three earned run or fewer in seven straight (1.33 ERA overall this year at home) and has a career 3.45 ERA in 57.1 innings vs. the A's. When LA scores first, it is 18-11.
Probably could flip a coin at this point. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky owns a career .884 save percentage and a 3.38 goals against average through 14 games in the Stanley Cup Final. Not great numbers. But just at home, those numbers are .929 and 1.84, respectively. The Cats won three of four at home vs. the Oilers in the 2024 Final and also won on home ice in the RS matchup. Certainly doesn't hurt to have the last line change defensively against Connor McDavid and that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is iffy. But I also nearly played Edmonton +1 ... this series feels that close.
The Jays have won four straight but I struggle to believe they sweep the Twins, one of MLB's best home clubs, especially with Toronto's bullpen quite taxed. Closer Jeff Hoffman saved both in the series so far, for example. Sunday starter Bowden Francis (2-7, 5.84) had a breakout final few months in 2024 but has massively regressed in 2025. Francis is tied for the MLB lead with 17 HRs allowed. The Twins' Joe Ryan has a 2.89 home ERA and had a dominant '24 start against Toronto.
End of a trip and having already won this series, a letdown spot for Houston. Likely no Josh Hader or top setup man Shawn Dubin for the Stros as both pitched Friday and Saturday. No Jose Altuve in the lineup. Obviously a tad more motivation for the Guardians to avoid a pretty rare home sweep. Tanner Bibee has a 2.43 home ERA.
The Rays cashed for us today -- without former All-Star 1B Yandy Diaz, who got a rest day -- and I see no reason not to back them again Saturday vs. awful Miami. Tampa's scheduled starter on the mound is Taj Bradley, who has allowed fewer than three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and gone seven strong in back-to-back. That lone start in there Bradley allowed more than two earned? May 16 in Miami when he gave up five runs over four. But I consider that largely a fluke, and Bradley's home splits are better. The Rays have won four straight and the Marlins have dropped five in a row and totaled just 13 runs.
Looks like the Mets F5 will fail and I don't feel like being underwater today, even if only slightly, so let's throw a half-unit on this. Don't consider it a chase as I'm gonna watch it (with the hockey) and want a rooting interest. Kinda interesting the Giants have a much better record, are home and a starting pitcher with better numbers yet decent dogs. Braves No. 1 catcher Drake Baldwin (.310, 7 HR) is sitting. Solid price at +1.5.
Note that some rain is in the forecast in Denver. I have some modest trap game worries for the Mets, but New York's Kodai Senga has been so good (1.60 ERA) and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela so bad (1-10, 7.14 ERA) that we have to play the F5.
Florida outplayed Edmonton for much of Game 1 before falling in overtime -- just a terrific hockey game overall. Florida had been 31-0 under head coach Paul Maurice in the playoffs when leading after the first period or the second period in a game. The Panthers have lost B2B games in these playoffs just once. Sam Bennett had two goals in the loss and has an active four-game road goal streak, equaling the team record he set across the first two rounds earlier this year.
It would be so baseball if the Marlins won this standalone game after being humiliated to start the week by being swept at home by Colorado. Pitcher Edwin Cabrera has been quite good of late but historically has been much worse (and wilder) on the road. Tampa Bay has won three straight and 10 of its past 11 at its temporary home of Steinbrenner Field.
Didn't expect a Jarace Walker injury to prod me to play an NBA Finals prop, but here we are. Walker is a reserve Pacers forward who has averaged about 16 minutes per game in these playoffs. He will miss at least the first two of the Finals due to injury. Most of those minutes in theory should go to fellow reserve Obi "Wan" Toppin. He's averaging 3.3 boards in the playoffs and was at 4.7 in the conference finals. If this is a blowout, Toppin also probably sees an uptick in minutes. As it is, the Pacers will need more size against the OKC twin 7-footers. If Toppin sees at least 20 minutes, I think this easily cashes.
This might be utterly stupid with winds blowing out a bit in LA, but no Francisco Lindor (or former batting champion Jeff McNeil, who has a six-game hitting streak) for the Mets, and no Freddie Freeman (or Max Muncy, who had two homers Tuesday) for the Dodgers. That's a lot of thunder.