Matt's Picks (8 Live)
Wanted to wait and see the result of our early Brentford DNB play before deciding on this, and the Bees did draw -- they dominated Fulham, so that's a bummer but why DNB rocks. Should Wolverhampton lose here and if Tottenham Hotspur beats Brighton & Hove Albion today, Wolves would officially be relegated for next season. Leeds got a stunning (and $$$ hurtful) win at Man United on Monday so I guess I have a small worry about a letdown but Leeds isn't fully clear of relegation worries itself yet. Probably would be with a win. Leeds has registered clean sheets in a quarter of all home league matches this season. Wolves has just seven road goals.
This is a perplexing number -- a fair amount too cheap in my opinion. Again, where a team sits in the table is not everything but it's something and FC Union Berlin is 11th in the Bundesliga (granted, been pretty bad in the New Year) with 32 points and Wolfsburg second-to-last with 21 points. And the Wolves have some injury concerns. They have lost seven in a row away and have never won at FC Union Berlin -- which will have a historic new manager for this one in Marie-Louise Eta. She is the first woman in charge of a men's team in the Bundesliga. Good for her, hope the debut is a success. Wolfsburg is on its third manager of the season.
Brentford has drawn five straight matches in all competitions. The Bees have a shot at European qualification for the first time ever as a win would jump them temporarily into sixth in the Premier League. They have gotten 27 points at home, the eight-best mark in the EPL. Brentford lost the first meeting with Fulham this season and was beaten at home last campaign in the series but hasn't dropped consecutive home EPL matches vs. the Cottagers since 1998. Fulham has just four road wins all season. I'm expecting a draw Saturday morning (ET) but certainly won't bet that when given a very fair DNB number.
1-for-1 on Chicago teams as the Cubs smashed the Mets this afternoon. Did well on that, so let's spin a half-unit into fading the South Siders as they visit the West Coast for the first time. The Sox are 3-8 away, and they just got swept at home by the Rays, losing each by multiple runs. Really thought Chicago would take a step forward a second year in a row. Not so far with the worst record (6-13) and run differential (-40) in the majors. Not like ownership cares. Sac-Town's Aaron Civale (2-0, 1.72 ERA) is pitching better than he actually is, but we'll take a small leap onto what is hopefully the gravy train. Mmm gravy. Might have to hit Fresh Market now ....
I generally try not to double-down on a baseball game because too unpredictable. But I'm already on Rockies ATS and yep I'll throw a half on this. Tomo Sugano has been pretty solid so far; Colorado was not off Thursday and used the bullpen a decent amount in Houston. Sugano has gone six innings in B2B starts and believe it or not it's pitching weather in Denver tonight. So short of getting shelled (possible but hope not x2) or hurt I'd sure think he's allowed to finish five. Would not touch 15.5, though. I may just like saying Tomo Sugano. The model has him at 5.4 innings. Keep the .4.
Prepared to and OK with losing this, but +2.5 on a home team is an almost must play. The Rockies don't appear to be like Baby Geniuses bad this season if you will allow the movie metaphor. More like Battlefield Earth bad. I'll let you do the conversion chart. Rox starter Tomo Sugano "Mr. Roboto" (1-0, 2.16 ERA) actually has better numbers this season than LA's Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 4.00) does. That won't last long. Frankly, at this price I'd go ahead and do +3.5 to avoid the three-run Shohei Ohtani HR top-nine loss and probably will do a fun number even higher in the newsletter. As will say many times, the new "Evil Empire" is going to get every team's best shot away.
Orlando's Paolo Banchero is one of the top-five most disappointing NBA guys of the season. Solid year, but the ex-No. 1 overall pick was supposed to take a leap and went a bit backward. I think Paolo has a statement game. And to me it feels like the Hornets just sherpa-ed (verb?) Mount Everest and nowhere to go but down after an utterly wild win over Miami. That was entertaining. Love to see the Bugs move on, they are fun to watch. Although LaMelo Ball's tatts looks like drawn by a drunken Monet (or Manet, I always get confused).