


NBA
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@jordanpaytonsn1I was really curious what Aaron Judge's price would be on Over/Under 0.5 home runs in Colorado. I don't care if he's playing on the moon (does the wind blow out on Luna?), I'm taking Under at less than -200. Judge might hit four dingers tonight, no doubt about it. But he also might be walked four times. Winds are actually blowing in some at Coors Field, not that it probably matters when it comes to Judge.
I was wondering if we'd get a flip at one of our books to 3.5 and there we go at Caesars. I'm still stinging from the Rockies not covering +3 the other day vs. the Phillies when leading 3-1 entering the seventh inning. They lost by six because, I mean, they are the Rockies. But I tend to think they play decently well on a holiday weekend in front of rare full houses with the Yankees making a very rare visit to Denver. NYY pitcher Clarke Schmidt has a 7.20 road ERA, but he'd still be the ace of Colorado's rotation. There probably won't be a save situation, but Yanks closer Luke Weaver is surely not available after pitching the past three nights.
May well push, or I suppose lose, but I worry about Stuart Skinner's confidence again. The Edmonton netminder was horrible the first two games of the playoffs and benched but then eventually forced back into action due to Calvin Pickard's injury. Skinner played great the last two of the conference semifinals and the first two periods of Game 1 in Dallas before allowing five goals in the third. So we'll go ahead and roll the dice on this great number. Dallas has won seven straight home games.
I don't think I've gotten a Padres game right, fade or back, since late April. I swear every year it's them, the Giants and the Blue Jays that just Rubik's Cube me. Sure, I Kobayashi Maru'd the Cube eventually by simply breaking it and gluing back together. That's when I knew I was devious. Course, I was 44 when happened so I may have issues ... Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to make his return on Friday from a torn ACL. That's enough to play the Braves by itself. Oh, and Chris Sale is pitching.
Toronto had to play an 11-inning game on Thursday, used basically every reliever it has and then traveled to Tampa (where it has never played a RS game before). The Rays were off on Thursday, so decent advantage there. The Jays are three games under .500 away. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen looks back in pre-injury form with a 2.93 ERA and off five shutout innings. No Toronto players have crazy-good splits off him.
Standalone game, so we generally like to have an opinion on those. I have no idea why the Red Sox are getting +1.5 in Game 1 of the DH as pretty much all their regulars are in, and it's not Lucas Giolito in the opener (Game 2) but Brayan Bello. He was shelled last time out but had been good at Fenway otherwise in 2025. On the road, batters are hitting .293 off Orioles lefty Cade "Maury" Povich (1-5, 5.23). He is 0-2 with 5.28 in three career appearances vs. Boston. The O's are 8-17 on the road.
Julius Randle has completely blown past this number in five straight games and nine of the past 10. And we are getting 18.5 (BetRivers-affiliated books tend to be a bit contrarian) when I see red-hot expert Mike Barner played this at 19.5. Our model has JR at 18.8 points.
I'm a big George Kirby guy and in fact the Mariners righty was my longer-shot AL Cy Young pick in 2024. He was quite good but not that good. Kirby hasn't pitched in the Show in 2025 due to shoulder inflammation and only got to 64 pitches in his final rehab start, so this seems a bit overpriced on Seattle as if Kirby will go eight strong. Maybe five. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. was one of the AL's better pitchers as recently as 2021 but injuries have derailed his career. He has been good in two of his three starts this year and was shredded in the other. Houston is 15-9 at home. One-run loss fine by me.
This is my absolute last time fading Florida on the road in the 2025 playoffs should the Cats bite me again. I just can't imagine with how good Carolina has been on home ice that it would lose again there. This is the season. The Panthers clearly got into the Canes' heads with some physical play in Game 1. Carolina did outshoot, outhit and outdraw (won in faceoff circle) Florida. The Hurricanes are 2-0 in games following losses this postseason, outscoring opponents 9-2 with one shutout.
Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.
Haven't really done much on Marty this year since he left the White Sox, but he's back in "form." After a hot start by his standards, which means a .237 average on April 21, Maldonado is down to .188 on the year and 3-for-21 with eight strikeouts this month. If he gets a hit off Jays starter Kevin Gausman, it's a duck snort or something lucky. And then maybe the Padres sub him out for offense if they are down in the later innings.
Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.
The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.