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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 49 NFL ML PICKS
+1938
RECORD: 37-12-0
# 4 NFL EXPERT
+1938
37-12 IN LAST 49 NFL ML PICKS

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Matt's Picks (2 Live)

Jan 26 2025, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Washington
@ Philadelphia
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+353
46-30 in Last 76 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Saquon Barkley's yardage total is the highest in history. ...

Pick Made: Jan 21, 11:08 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 26 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Calgary Flames
@ Winnipeg Jets
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+1918
46-18-1 in Last 65 NHL Picks
+1714
26-6-1 in Last 33 NHL ATS Picks
+132.5
5-4 in Last 9 WPG ATS Picks
Analysis:

Calgary is in the second of a back-to-back on Sunday. ...

Pick Made: 3:07 am UTC on Sugar House

Matt's Past Picks

Jan 26 2025, 3:30 am UTC
League
Milwaukee
117
@ L.A. Clippers
127
+1374.5
55-32 in Last 87 NBA Picks
+647
12-5 in Last 17 NBA ML Picks
+2496
58-20 in Last 78 MIL ML Picks
Analysis:

I played a little hoops back in the day and there was always this one dude who gave me trouble defensively: Keith. There is a great Family Guy skit where Peter has to enter a vault and is asked the most unattractive male name in history to get in. Answer: "Keith." Why I remember (worked). Everyone has that one person who has their number, both good and bad in life, imo. Point is, that I'm a basketball nerd at times and this will be fun to see Giannis and Kawhi go head-to-head. If there's one guy in the NBA who can "moderately" slow the Freak it's Kawhi. Looks like everyone of note will play, which is a nice change in the Association these days.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 10:17 am UTC on BetMGM
Jan 26 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Detroit
113
@ Orlando
121
+1374.5
55-32 in Last 87 NBA Picks
+647
12-5 in Last 17 NBA ML Picks
+1067.5
17-5 in Last 22 ORL ML Picks
Analysis:

Appears that Magic lead guard Jalen Suggs will return after missing the past 10 due to injury as he was at shootaround so the team should have its Opening Night starting five for the first time in several weeks. Probably a bit of urgency as well with Orlando on a season-high five-game skid -- otherwise this probably would at least -180. The Pistons lost by 11 in O-Town on Nov. 23. Cade Cunningham missed it for Detroit but so did Paolo Banchero for Orlando.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 5:50 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 26 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Los Angeles Kings
2
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
3
+1918
46-18-1 in Last 65 NHL Picks
+1714
26-6-1 in Last 33 NHL ATS Picks
+1407.5
23-7-1 in Last 31 CLB ATS Picks
Analysis:

The books run on computers just like the rest of us. So, yeah, LA might be -170 better in the Matrix. But the Blue Jackets have nearly bought me a hot tub this season at home: NHL-best 17-7 ATS on familiar ice. We won't win them all, but I think we will play them all when Columbus is a home dog.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 1:38 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jan 26 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
New Jersey Devils
4
@ Montreal Canadiens
3
+1918
46-18-1 in Last 65 NHL Picks
+1714
26-6-1 in Last 33 NHL ATS Picks
+267
5-1-1 in Last 7 MON ATS Picks
Analysis:

So we are getting a team +1.5 at home that has been largely rolling of late against a struggling club that has to use its No. 2 goaltender -- Jacob Markstrom is out multiple weeks due to injury suffered last time out -- at basically the same price as road ML? Alright Hamilton!

Pick Made: Jan 25, 4:27 am UTC on BetMGM
Jan 25 2025, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Jaspers
74
@ Mountaineers
64
+314.5
56-37 in Last 93 NCAAB Picks
+231
44-27 in Last 71 NCAAB ML Picks
Analysis:

Well, I was hoping to be 2-0 in the early window and call it a day, but the weirdest week of the season continues with Princeton upset at home, so we are slightly down (thanks Iona for complying). KenPom ranks the Mount 18 spots higher for this homecoming game. The Mountaineers try for the sweep as they won 75-66 at Manhattan on Jan. 10 as slight dogs. The Jaspers have lost three of four and haven't had Fraser Roxborough (7.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) since the calendar flipped, and he remains out. Kudos to the school's athletic department for very in-depth game notes that included injury info. Quite rare for those to include that type of stuff.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 9:13 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 25 2025, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Big Red
85
@ Tigers
76
+314.5
56-37 in Last 93 NCAAB Picks
+231
44-27 in Last 71 NCAAB ML Picks
+130
3-1 in Last 4 CORN ML Picks
Analysis:

Princeton was the overwhelming preseason Ivy League favorite and is playing like it at 3-0 in the league and having won seven in a row overall. The Tigers are 44-6 in their past 50 at home. They will also have the best player on the floor -- although the way this week is going, he probably gets ruled out with cooties -- in Caden Pierce, a six-time Ivy League Player of the Week. But he's not the reigning Ivy POW. That's teammate Xaivian Lee. I have to pick at least one Cornell game per season in tribute to Andy on the Office; have a friend who similarly puts where he went to school in many conversations (ironically Dartmouth). It's irksome as well.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 11:34 am UTC on DraftKings
Jan 25 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Saints
68
@ Gaels
72
+314.5
56-37 in Last 93 NCAAB Picks
+231
44-27 in Last 71 NCAAB ML Picks
+139
4-3 in Last 7 IONA ML Picks
Analysis:

Siena remains a bit short-handed with Peter Carey and Marcus Jackson out. Not their two best players but starters and both played in the first meeting, a 74-73 Iona win on Jan. 5. The Gaels are second nationally in offensive rebounding (15.7 per game) and No. 4 in the NCAA and first in the MAAC in turnovers forced (17.3 per game).

Pick Made: Jan 25, 5:34 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jan 25 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Colorado Avalanche
1
@ Boston Bruins
3
+1918
46-18-1 in Last 65 NHL Picks
+1714
26-6-1 in Last 33 NHL ATS Picks
+413
12-5-1 in Last 18 BOS ATS Picks
Analysis:

I've never been an NHL GM and pretty good chances at this point I never will be unless Jeff Bezos is my uncle that I'm unaware of (Jeff, I am willing to sell nephew-ship for six figures). But what are the Avalanche doing? They traded second-leading scorer Mikko Rantanen on Friday in a three-way deal to Carolina -- which imo makes the Canes the team to beat for the Stanley Cup. I guess the Avs will be deeper after the deal (but definitely not here) and Rantanen was to be a free agent, but wow when you are contending. I cannot imagine this goes over well in the locker room, so be my guest playing Bruins ML.

Pick Made: Jan 25, 2:28 am UTC on Sugar House
Jan 25 2025, 2:00 am UTC
League
Nittany Lions
75
@ Hawkeyes
76
+314.5
56-37 in Last 93 NCAAB Picks
+231
44-27 in Last 71 NCAAB ML Picks
+615
7-1 in Last 8 IOWA ML Picks
Analysis:

You know what they call a polar vortex in Iowa? Spring break. The Hawkeyes crushed me with their shocking home loss to Minnesota on Tuesday as I had them wrapped up in two parlays and every leg hit but them -- so they owe me. Penn State has lost four of five and its lone road win is as mid-major Drexel. Nittany Lions guard Puff "the Magic Dragon" Johnson (10.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is in doubt after missing the past two.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 12:21 am UTC on FanDuel
Jan 25 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
New Orleans
126
@ Memphis
139
+1374.5
55-32 in Last 87 NBA Picks
+94
2-1 in Last 3 NBA O/U Picks
+145
2-1 in Last 3 NO O/U Picks
Analysis:

I'll be honest with you in that I barely understand today's NBA: 243.5 freaking points? Again, I am certainly not a "get off my lawn" type because I am not that old and, well, don't have a lawn but for comparison in the 1998 NBA Finals, MJ's last with those dynastic Bulls, the highest-scoring game was 181 total points -- and that was a shootout as Utah scored 54 in one. Don't think we need to go back to that style of NBA but this is too far the other way. We'll do this on "Grumpy Old Men" principle and with Ja Morant iffy -- missed the morning shootaround. Most models have this around 235 and that's with Morant.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 5:40 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 25 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Utah Hockey Club
2
@ Winnipeg Jets
5
+1918
46-18-1 in Last 65 NHL Picks
+1094
47-25 in Last 72 NHL ML Picks
+1519.5
45-22 in Last 67 WPG ML Picks
Analysis:

Was hoping for -1, but it's not being offered by SugarHouse so we'll risk it as I'm not playing -1.5. Utah is playing as we speak at an excellent Minnesota team, and it's sure hard to see any team potentially win there (HC is up 2-0 as write this) and then at even-better Winnipeg in the span of 24 hours. Plus, the HC might have to Iditarod there late tonight with the weather. Utah just beat Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets in Salt Lake City on Monday, 5-2. That was one of Hellebuyck's worst games of the season. I expect a major bounce-back effort. The Jets are 18-5-3 at home. I'd play the regulation line if we had that option (soon hopefully).

Pick Made: Jan 24, 2:15 am UTC on Caesars
Jan 25 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Golden Flashes
59
@ Bobcats
61
+314.5
56-37 in Last 93 NCAAB Picks
+245
3-1 in Last 4 KENTST ATS Picks
Analysis:

I hate playing road teams but CBB expert Thomas Casale mentioned early today that two top Ohio frontcourt guys might be out again, and I was waiting for confirmation. They are out: AJ Clayton (15.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Aiden Hadaway (10.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG).

Pick Made: Jan 24, 11:33 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jan 25 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Portland
102
@ Charlotte
97
+844
39-19 in Last 58 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

LaMelo Ball is certainly capable of topping this easily but is not assured of playing with a sprained shooting wrist and obviously if he does that might hamper him a bit. There's also the possible blowout factor as while Portland is playing its best hoops of the season on a three-game winning streak, it's the second of a B2B and end of a trip through the East so a natural letdown spot and we might see some guys get the night off. Our model has LaMelo at 26.3 points.

Pick Made: Jan 24, 1:34 pm UTC on BetMGM
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