Pair of lefties today from the desert -- LA is 8-12 vs. southpaws and Arizona 12-6 while ranking No. 6 in OPS against them. Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 1.93 ERA in seven home outings. The one good thing about Tuesday's blowout loss was the bullpen getting reset behind him. The Halos' Sam Aldegheri (2-1, 2.12) has good numbers in limited action this season but has bounced back and forth from the minors over his career, and it's his first road start of 2026. Arizona to not bat bottom nine at -115 is a pretty nice alternative if available to you.
Perhaps Spain's draw yesterday vs. Cape Verde was the worst possible result for a team like Senegal in terms of pulling an upset today because I'm sure Les Bleus coach Didier Deschamps made it a point to address that result to his guys ahead of this match. At No. 17 in the world, Senegal is miles better than Cape Verde and was the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations champion before that was stripped for non-competitive reasons. France's last outright loss in a WC opener was to Senegal in 2002. Not expecting that but hoping for another surprise draw today (or even a one-goal loss). Both teams have scored in France's past five matches overall dating to November. If Senegal scores, I'm feeling pretty good here.
Washington has won three in a row by multiple runs and starts the third-most profitable pitcher in the majors tonight in southpaw Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46 ERA). This most likely is not sustainable for the 30-year-old journeyman but you would be up $860 if you bet $100 on the Nats to each of his outings so far. No Royals have seen him career, and Kansas City fell to a truly hysterical 3-16 against lefty starters with Monday's four-run loss in D.C. (we cashed).
Certainly not close to my favorite Brewers pitcher in Robert Gasser (0-3, 6.38 ERA), but his home splits are fairly better and the Brew Crew have a fully rested excellent bullpen behind him. This is mainly fading the Guardians now without All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez for the foreseeable future. He was placed on the injured list Sunday and might miss eight weeks. Crushing news for the team -- but helps the White Sox in the Central! Tuesday starter Slade Cecconi has a 5.21 road ERA.
Over the weekend, the Royals lost one of their better hitters in Vinnie Barbarino ... err Pasquantino for 4-6 weeks. They can't hit much as is and are 3-15 vs. southpaws. K.C. is also 10 games under .500 away and goes with Mitch Spence on the mound -- Spence is 11-16 with a 4.91 ERA in his three seasons in the Show and was only just called back up. It's lefty Andrew Alvarez (3.70 ERA) for the Nats -- although he might not be out there more 4-5 innings as essentially an extended opener. Washington has won two straight and six of nine overall. Might be the first time have played it all season as a ML favorite. Might be the last if don't win.
This seems like a too-cheap price for Monday's series opener from the desert. Arizona, which might get Lourdes Gurriel back from the IL, hasn't been that great of late but has played a pretty tough and road-heavy schedule. Monday starter Ryne Nelson has largely dominated in his past four home outings. The Angels are quite bad, especially away (12-23). Rookie pitcher Walbert Urena (2.44 ERA) has been a nice surprise and probably why this number is low, but his road splits are considerably worse.
I will be honest with you here. If one of these Rockies-Athletics Under 14 plays was going to lose this weekend from Sin City, it's probably this one because of the 12:05 local start time. Just scorching hot and yep winds blowing out again. I am trying to think of what it would take for me to go watch a Rockies-A's game in Las Vegas in that heat at high noon with no roof (the new A's stadium of course will have one). Maybe Belinda Carlisle's phone number gets it done but doubt that monetarily anything less than 2K and a comped night at the Caesars Palace Nobu Villa (only 40K) would. The starting pitchers really don't matter. The bullpens will decide it.
Mike McClure's model for this bout tonight at the White House gives Justin Gaethje a 32% chance of knocking off unbeaten Ilia Topuria in the main event for the lightweight title. Per Mike's sims, we are getting decent value here because 32% -- I would give Gaethje about a one in three chance too -- equates to +213 on the money line so let's throw a half-unit shot down. Apparently this card will go even if it's raining. Very interested to tune into Paramount+ at 8 ET to see the setup. Then it's probably back to Season 2 of Your Friends & Neighbors for me until the main event.
Very fair price on Carolina's Nikolaj Ehlers considering he has back-to-back three-point games -- although I will say potential elimination games tend to be lower-scoring. I'm a bit surprised that Vegas coach John Tortorella is sticking with struggling Carter Hart in net, but Torts is known to be quite stubborn. Unfortunately, I don't see any sides or totals in our system that I like much as I'd prefer to play something on one in perhaps the last hockey until October. If this were Monday, I'd probably do the same parlay I did for Game 5 at CBS Sports betting site: Knights +2.5 and Carolina Over 2.5 goals -- that's priced +109 at BetRivers. Hoping for a Game 7 ...
I am not one of those people who just auto-bets Paul Skenes or the Miz (I will address him this week in the newsletter when he starts next) or Tarik Skubal or Shohei (pitcher version) but see now we are getting value because Skenes is winless in a career-high five straight games. I would venture to guess that the lookahead lines -- those don't exist in MLB but I have trading experience so a general idea -- would be about -250 a couple of weeks ago. I feel like this is an overreaction number.
Sadly, the Blue Jays just announced that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out against the Yankees, so I no longer like Toronto +1.5 that much. Pretty weak sitting him in a marquee matchup against the AL Cy Young favorite with a team off day coming Monday anyways. So I'm essentially replacing that with this. The Cards have lost two straight one-run games so their bullpen is taxed. NL Rookie of the Year favorite JJ Wetherholt is out. That entire lineup looks rather garbage to me. If the Twins weren't starting struggling lefty Connor Prielipp (2-4, 5.15 ERA) I might just play the ML. But Prielipp has been better at home (2-2, 3.76 ERA).
Same deal as Friday really from Las Vegas. Completely prepared to lose but such an obscene number that it's a must-go -- and hasn't come that close to being topped since that wild 29-run game Monday. If you have ever been to Sin City in the summer, and I have a few times (not a big fan and probably won't return now that you can bet anywhere; miss the 24-hour buffets though), then I probably don't have to tell you the weather. Imagine drinking a Tabasco and Cholula shake whilst sitting in a tanning bed on the sun. Our model has about 11, and 10 were scored last night.
On one of my hottest runs in a long while, and if you had told me even two years ago that soccer would have been a part of that I would have thrown garlic at you assuming a vampire. I do keep random garlic JIC but have Twilight issues. This is not sustainable for me as confident as I am, but if so I'll have you all over at my private Caribbean island (non-weird version) in a year or two. Guess I understand why the Yanks are favored in Toronto with AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler on the mound, but the Jays' Kevin Gausman has been doing this a lot longer and very few Yankees hit him well career. Don't need a win.
Someone in the SportsLine Discord just said the Dodgers have their "Sunday lineup" in today. My dawg Joe is right: No Shohei or Will Smith (on IL) or even very solid No. 2 catcher Dalton Rushing. Who the heck are Santiago Espinal and Chuckie Robinson? Your 8-9 LA hitters, that's who. The Sox might win outright, but I'll definitely take this nice price at +1.5. I can hear former Sox legendary voice Hawk Harrelson now: "And this ballgame is OVAH! Mercy!"
Brad Thomas and I saw the same news today that Ghana top midfielder Thomas Partey will not play in this one because he wasn't granted a visa to enter Canada due to some serious legal charges in London. Seeing what those were, I'm a little surprised he was allowed to enter the USA. Partey, formerly of Arsenal and now Villareal in European football, has 57 caps for his national side and just played in the last warmup. Why is Ghana favored anyways ranked 73rd in the world -- easily the worst of Group L -- and Panama 34th?