Matt's Pick (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Big news out of Vancouver that blindsided me (and I think most everyone else) or I would have had it in today's premium newsletter that recently went out for subscribers who have signed up: Canucks No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko reportedly could miss the rest of the series vs. the Preds due to injury. Casey DeSmith had a very solid year as a backup but now we have to back Nashville, which largely dominated the first two periods of Game 1 despite the 4-2 loss. DeSmith has just one game of playoff experience in his career. Simply can't turn down +1.5 in a playoff game even at this price.
A few experts are playing Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases props tonight because he's 4-for-6 with a triple and homer career off Angels starter Griffin Canning -- and that makes total sense, but Henderson doesn't have to get an official total base and can still come around to score. Or just go yard in the top of the first and make us all happy.
Can't remember the last time I turned down playing an Under 6.5 to play an Over 6 but how can anyone trust Avs netminder Alexandar Georgiev the way he has been playing for a few weeks? While I doubt he allows seven himself again as in Game 1, I expect the Jets to get to at least four off him. If so, we surely do no worse than a push. Colorado simply has no other healthy options in net right now.
I'll be willing to bet anyone that Colorado will not score six goals again in the series and lose like it did in Game 1. But therein lies the reason for fading the Avs as like we did Sunday: Goaltending. In a perfect world, no way struggling Alexandar Georgiev gets another start but may have to because Justus Annunen is ill. Too many questions, and we'll back the team with Connor Hellebuyck even if the likely Vezina winner wasn't great himself in the opener. He did face 46 shots. “You’re not tagging any of those goals on him,” Coach Rick Bowness said. “Some of them had seeing eyes. Some of them were bouncing all over the place."
Should Texas be a home dog here? The Mariners have the better pitcher, I suppose, in Logan Gilbert over Dane Dunning, but the lineups are not close. No. 1 Texas catcher Jonah Heim is back from the bereavement list. And Dunning’s lifetime .667 win percentage (16-8) at Globe Life Field is the highest ever by a Rangers starting pitcher in Arlington (minimum 40 starts at home).
The Cards have a little momentum after last night's walk-off win (to snap a four-game skid) over the Diamondbacks, who are sitting reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll today. He's not hitting much yet but still can cause havoc on the basepaths so it's definitely a good thing for St. Louis. Arizona's top rookie this year, shortstop Blaze Alexander (now that's a name), is out a second straight game. Cards pitcher Steven Matz is meh but has thrown five shutout innings in his lone home outing thus far.
Fedde (1-0, 3.10 ERA) has been pretty solid for the White Sox, a rare bright spot, and gone at least five in three straight. He'll surely be traded this summer if this continues. Chicago only got 3.2 innings from yesterday's starter so it needs some bullpen relief. Just a few Twins have ever faced Fedde. In theory, that only helps his cause.
Florida is the better team, but the Lightning will probably come out with a ton of intensity to avoid a 2-0 hole to their bitter rivals, and we know Andrei Vasilevskiy can pull a rabbit out of his hat and win any game in the playoffs. That's why he's a future Hall of Famer. Not predicting that, but the Russian allowed only two in Game 1 and if he does that again obviously we should cash. Maybe 20 cents or so cheaper I back the Panthers again, but we are getting +1.5 about 15 cents less than the Florida ML. Simply hoping for OT so we don't get crushed on an empty-netter by the Cats.
The Suns already are an incredibly thin team after their three All-Stars and likely will be without Grayson Allen tonight -- or if he does play, clearly not 100 percent after injuring his ankle in Game 1. Allen was the NBA's top three-point shooter by percentage during the season and averaged 19.0 ppg in the three-game season sweep against the Wolves but only had four in Game 1 before leaving. Minnesota also has a ton more size and dominated the boards. That's not changing.
Not planning to play this type of price on the road very often this season -- I do think it should be at least -225 -- and the Nationals are playing quite well at home. But I have only two words for you in terms of this Tuesday wager: Patrick Corbin. Definitely listed pitcher on him.
Feels like I fall into an Oilers trap this time of year all the time simply as a Stanley Cup Final with them in it -- especially against Toronto -- would be so fun to watch. It's certainly possible. Edmonton eliminated Los Angeles in six games last season and in seven games in 2022. The Oilers won three of the four games against the Kings this season, including both at home. All of those were after Kris Knoblauch replaced Jay Woodcroft as Edmonton's coach on Nov. 12.
Double payback chance for the Stars as they lost in the 2023 West Finals to Vegas and lost this season's series 3-0 -- although all three games were in 2023. However, Dallas closed winning 17 of its final 21 overall to earn the West's top seed, and Jake Oettinger was brilliant down the stretch. He's really the play here over the Knights' Logan Thompson, who did have a good season himself but largely due to his home numbers. Away, he was 9-9-4 with a 3.24 GAA. Home teams have been killing it so far in these playoffs. That's usually good for us.
Dylan Cease has been pretty good overall for the Padres but he's still walking a lot of guys, and we have seen from his White Sox days that things can go off the rails quickly for him control-wise. Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 3.60 home ERA. Manny Machado has started to hit a bit for San Diego after a slow start but is apparently not starting.
Twins pitcher Chris Paddack is not very good and thus I can't justify Minnesota runline here, but I think at this price we blindly have to fade the just truly horrid White Sox a little on the road. They may well only win 15 or so road games all year with that putrid lineup.