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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 252 NBA PICKS
+3111.25
RECORD: 161-90-1
# 2 NBA EXPERT
+3111.25
161-90-1 IN LAST 252 NBA PICKS

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Matt's Picks (2 Live)

May 24 2025, 11:15 pm UTC
League
Cleveland
@ Detroit
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+2324
59-25 in Last 84 CLE ML Picks
Analysis:

Will Casey Mize have some giddy-up on his fastball? ...

Pick Made: 7:20 am UTC on FanDuel
May 25 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Oklahoma City
@ Minnesota
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+3111.25
161-90-1 in Last 252 NBA Picks
+968
42-23 in Last 65 NBA ML Picks
+246.5
13-6 in Last 19 OKC ML Picks
Analysis:

Can the Timberwolves avoid a 3-0 hole? ...

Pick Made: 8:01 am UTC on BetMGM

Matt's Past Picks

May 24 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
N.Y. Yankees
2
@ Colorado
3
Analysis:

I was really curious what Aaron Judge's price would be on Over/Under 0.5 home runs in Colorado. I don't care if he's playing on the moon (does the wind blow out on Luna?), I'm taking Under at less than -200. Judge might hit four dingers tonight, no doubt about it. But he also might be walked four times. Winds are actually blowing in some at Coors Field, not that it probably matters when it comes to Judge.

Pick Made: Fri 1:41 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 24 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
N.Y. Yankees
2
@ Colorado
3
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+1235
32-10 in Last 42 MLB ATS Picks
+461.5
52-43-1 in Last 96 COL ATS Picks
Analysis:

I was wondering if we'd get a flip at one of our books to 3.5 and there we go at Caesars. I'm still stinging from the Rockies not covering +3 the other day vs. the Phillies when leading 3-1 entering the seventh inning. They lost by six because, I mean, they are the Rockies. But I tend to think they play decently well on a holiday weekend in front of rare full houses with the Yankees making a very rare visit to Denver. NYY pitcher Clarke Schmidt has a 7.20 road ERA, but he'd still be the ace of Colorado's rotation. There probably won't be a save situation, but Yanks closer Luke Weaver is surely not available after pitching the past three nights.

Pick Made: Fri 8:03 pm UTC on Caesars
May 24 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Edmonton
3
@ Dallas
0
+3902
147-73-8 in Last 228 NHL Sides Picks
+2825.5
80-34-8 in Last 122 NHL ATS Picks
+1121.5
24-9-1 in Last 34 DAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

May well push, or I suppose lose, but I worry about Stuart Skinner's confidence again. The Edmonton netminder was horrible the first two games of the playoffs and benched but then eventually forced back into action due to Calvin Pickard's injury. Skinner played great the last two of the conference semifinals and the first two periods of Game 1 in Dallas before allowing five goals in the third. So we'll go ahead and roll the dice on this great number. Dallas has won seven straight home games.

Pick Made: Fri 2:16 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 23 2025, 11:15 pm UTC
League
San Diego
2
@ Atlanta
1
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+903
61-34 in Last 95 ATL ML Picks
Analysis:

I don't think I've gotten a Padres game right, fade or back, since late April. I swear every year it's them, the Giants and the Blue Jays that just Rubik's Cube me. Sure, I Kobayashi Maru'd the Cube eventually by simply breaking it and gluing back together. That's when I knew I was devious. Course, I was 44 when happened so I may have issues ... Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to make his return on Friday from a torn ACL. That's enough to play the Braves by itself. Oh, and Chris Sale is pitching.

Pick Made: Fri 3:08 am UTC on BetRivers
May 23 2025, 11:05 pm UTC
League
Toronto
1
@ Tampa Bay
3
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+833.5
44-23 in Last 67 TB ML Picks
Analysis:

Toronto had to play an 11-inning game on Thursday, used basically every reliever it has and then traveled to Tampa (where it has never played a RS game before). The Rays were off on Thursday, so decent advantage there. The Jays are three games under .500 away. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen looks back in pre-injury form with a 2.93 ERA and off five shutout innings. No Toronto players have crazy-good splits off him.

Pick Made: Fri 1:42 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 23 2025, 5:35 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
5
@ Boston
19
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+1235
32-10 in Last 42 MLB ATS Picks
+500
7-0 in Last 7 BAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Standalone game, so we generally like to have an opinion on those. I have no idea why the Red Sox are getting +1.5 in Game 1 of the DH as pretty much all their regulars are in, and it's not Lucas Giolito in the opener (Game 2) but Brayan Bello. He was shelled last time out but had been good at Fenway otherwise in 2025. On the road, batters are hitting .293 off Orioles lefty Cade "Maury" Povich (1-5, 5.23). He is 0-2 with 5.28 in three career appearances vs. Boston. The O's are 8-17 on the road.

Pick Made: Fri 4:54 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 23 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Minnesota
103
@ Oklahoma City
118
+2262.25
96-42 in Last 138 NBA Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Julius Randle has completely blown past this number in five straight games and nine of the past 10. And we are getting 18.5 (BetRivers-affiliated books tend to be a bit contrarian) when I see red-hot expert Mike Barner played this at 19.5. Our model has JR at 18.8 points.

Pick Made: Thu 3:34 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 23 2025, 12:10 am UTC
League
Seattle
2
@ Houston
9
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+1235
32-10 in Last 42 MLB ATS Picks
+1738
44-19-1 in Last 64 SEA ATS Picks
Analysis:

I'm a big George Kirby guy and in fact the Mariners righty was my longer-shot AL Cy Young pick in 2024. He was quite good but not that good. Kirby hasn't pitched in the Show in 2025 due to shoulder inflammation and only got to 64 pitches in his final rehab start, so this seems a bit overpriced on Seattle as if Kirby will go eight strong. Maybe five. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. was one of the AL's better pitchers as recently as 2021 but injuries have derailed his career. He has been good in two of his three starts this year and was shredded in the other. Houston is 15-9 at home. One-run loss fine by me.

Pick Made: Thu 12:53 pm UTC on Caesars
May 23 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Florida
5
@ Carolina
0
+3902
147-73-8 in Last 228 NHL Sides Picks
+1966.5
94-52 in Last 146 NHL ML Picks
+2055.5
54-26 in Last 80 CAR ML Picks
Analysis:

This is my absolute last time fading Florida on the road in the 2025 playoffs should the Cats bite me again. I just can't imagine with how good Carolina has been on home ice that it would lose again there. This is the season. The Panthers clearly got into the Canes' heads with some physical play in Game 1. Carolina did outshoot, outhit and outdraw (won in faceoff circle) Florida. The Hurricanes are 2-0 in games following losses this postseason, outscoring opponents 9-2 with one shutout.

Pick Made: Thu 1:21 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 22 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Edmonton
3
@ Dallas
6
+3902
147-73-8 in Last 228 NHL Sides Picks
+1966.5
94-52 in Last 146 NHL ML Picks
+1250.5
33-12 in Last 45 EDM ML Picks
Analysis:

Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.

Pick Made: Wed 8:32 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 21 2025, 11:07 pm UTC
League
San Diego
0
@ Toronto
14
Analysis:

Haven't really done much on Marty this year since he left the White Sox, but he's back in "form." After a hot start by his standards, which means a .237 average on April 21, Maldonado is down to .188 on the year and 3-for-21 with eight strikeouts this month. If he gets a hit off Jays starter Kevin Gausman, it's a duck snort or something lucky. And then maybe the Padres sub him out for offense if they are down in the later innings.

Pick Made: Wed 8:35 pm UTC on DraftKings
May 21 2025, 4:35 pm UTC
League
Cincinnati
1
@ Pittsburgh
3
+607.5
19-5 in Last 24 MLB Game Props Picks
Analysis:

Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.

Pick Made: Wed 2:58 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 21 2025, 1:45 am UTC
League
Kansas City
2
@ San Francisco
3
+1845.5
121-61 in Last 182 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+951
37-15 in Last 52 KC ML Picks
Analysis:

The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.

Pick Made: Wed 1:12 am UTC on FanDuel
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