Matt's Picks (4 Live)
I think Toronto should be favored as the Dinos should have everyone available -- Scottie Barnes is good to go after missing the last game for personal reasons. OKC is down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (missing his homecoming in Toronto), Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, probably Alex Caruso and maybe Chet Holmgren (rest in front of a B2B). The Thunder somehow managed to beat the Cavs down all those guys but Holmgren Sunday but that was at home. The Raptors have won four of five and also won in OKC earlier this season when SGA was playing. The Thunder also have a bigger game Wednesday in Detroit in a possible NBA Finals matchup and with the top overall seed in the playoffs perhaps on the line.
Georgetown has lost four straight but all close. Marquette has dropped three in a row and is last in the Big East. It lost at home to GU, 78-69 on Dec. 17, and the Hoyas didn't have 7-footer Vince Iwuchukwu then but do now. He's averaging 11.1 points, 5.6 boards and 1.0 blocks. With twin 7-footer Julius Halaifonua, the Hoyas should dominate Marquette down low. That pretty much happened in that first matchup. GU hasn't won at home vs. MU since February 2017. Every model I check has the Hoyas by at least five (ours by nine). So does KenPom. Marquette has not won a single road game (which makes me a tad nervous now). This feels like a generous price forcing my hand.
Akron is one of the top offensive team in the country in averaging 89.4 PPG. So if it gets there, can't Buffalo score about 68 points? The Bulls average 78.6 PPG and are expected to get back leading scorer Daniel Freitag (20.0 PPG) tonight. He has been out since Feb. 3. Our model has 164 points scored, and Torvik has about the same.
Not even near my radar originally but George Washington is expected to be without leading scorer Rafael Castro (15.0 PPG) yet again and second-leading scorer Garrett Johnson (12.9 PPG) is iffy. LaSalle has a ton of guys out led by its two leading scorers in Jaeden Marshall (12.0 PPG) and Jerome Brewer (11.2 PPG) as well as No. 4 guy Josiah Harris (9.0 PPG). The Explorers managed only 59 points on Saturday and average 65.3 PPG on the year, among the worst nationally. Our model has 145 total points.
Well this might be a first for me as well: Playing -1.5 on a soccer team. And I wouldn't domestically but Inter was stunned 3-1 in Norway in the first leg of this Champions League tie, so it has to win by two (some of our books have -2 as the spread) at home Tuesday to simply force a penalty shootout to advance. So needless to say, the Italians should be playing major aggressively -- not ideal that captain Lautaro MartÃnez is out, to be sure, but I still can see a two-goal result.
At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
I didn't think I would play a draw to be honest and would much prefer Draw No Bet here but that's too expensive (-240). So let's take a shot. United has taken off under interim manager Michael Carrick and is unbeaten in its last nine Premier League games, its longest such run since a 14-game streak between January and May 2021. But four of those are draws, and forward Patrick Dorgu (three goals) is out. Everton has lost five of its past nine league home games with two of those draws. Defender Jake O'Brien is suspended. Can't beat the price anyways. Half unit.
Truly apologize, I am backward right now. Slumps happen but jeepers. Need the NHL back. I wish someone could explain to me how the JV Thunder got out to a 23-point lead on a fully healthy Cavs team. It's ridiculous. So is Wright State getting pummeled at home. To paraphrase Spock, it's illogical. I cannot go out on the NBA on that OKC silliness. Strangely have done well of late on moneyline underdogs even though it goes against most of what I believe. The Lakers were blasted in Boston earlier this season so maybe a tinge more motivation. The LA offense is clicking on a two-game winning streak (124.5 PPG). Think LA should be -2ish.
So I may just have to come to grips that this will be a losing CBB season. Still six weeks or so to rally but clearly this isn't a favorites year. I have never played a game where all the models didn't agree but now I'm starting to think in the transfer era that models are generally worthless. And I'll have to consider this in football too going forward. I mean Indiana, and I'm talking football. Just a different world now. Glad the players have some power. Wright State leads the Horizon and absolutely should win. This is low imo. Also the home finale in Wrightville/Whoville (Dayton if don't know, which is Whoville), and we love those.
The Super Bowl and Olympics are over -- what a fabulous hockey game and do think there will be value fading a handful of NHL teams when they restart but that's later. Time to focus. Usually this is when I take off as now we know who is trying. Never thought I'd play -180 against the Thunder in OKC, but they are without SGA, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell. Cleveland is down no one. Not sure who scores today for the Thunder. Won't be Lu Dort (OKC's highest O/U point total is 18.5 - the Chetster). Strange backing a road moneyline favorite but time to shake things up a bit. Also in honor of ClevelandFan becoming one of our Discord moderators.
This type of match is exactly why I was pining for Draw No Bet. I don't think Sunderland loses at home but not super confident wins, either. This takes the pressure off. Love it. Midfielder Granit Xhaka, which is about the manliest name ever, is expected back from injury for the Black Cats. He has missed the past four. Gotta get a few soccer plays in pre-USA vs. Canada.