To be clear the Kings don't want to win but have in their past two at home against bad teams. New Orleans has nothing to play for, either, is in the second of a back-to-back and has lost six in a row, the past four by double digits. I could see Zion Williamson and others take a seat tonight in a meaningless game. It's probably the last chance Sacramento has for a home win this season. Just lose by 5 is all I ask. The model has the Kings winning outright. Wouldn't shock me.
How much is Victor Wembanyama worth? Apparently almost 7 points as the Spurs were as high as -4.5, but he will sit in LA. Now, I have learned not just fade teams because their star is out. It's almost as if the opponent is flat not playing him. But the Clips are playing for seeding, healthy and on normal rest. The Spurs have a mega-showdown Saturday in Denver: Wemby vs. Nikola as a lead-in to the Final Four. So I tend to think this might be not a punt game but ... mail it in at the half if down double-digits type one.
The Bucks are sitting just about everyone tonight in the second of a B2B, which should mean a lot of minutes for Jericho Sims as he's the only true center available if not a very good one. The 27-year-old has had a few nice games of late when he has gotten minutes, including 17 PR last night in 29 minutes.
On paper, a horrific spot for the Knicks on a three-game skid, in the second of a back-to-back and at the end of a trip. Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson get the night off. New York is 2-4 without Brunson this season. The Grizzlies obviously aren't winning but if they try even a little should be able to cover two touchdowns at home.
Second of a back-to-back and a random, worthless one-game road trip for the Mavericks so I don't get why they would put up much of a fight. PJ Washington leads a handful of guys sitting out. The Mavs are only favored because the Bucks are tanking, too, and obviously still without Giannis. Welcome to the modern-day NBA.
Second of a back-to-back for the Hornets, but part of the reason I think they were upset last night was looking ahead to this. Boston will be sans Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. That overcomes my back-to-back hesitation. And how much of a load can Jayson Tatum carry this early? He has been playing a lot of minutes. This is also Boston's only visit to Charlotte this season, so it will be a definite home-court advantage-type crowd in a possible first-round East playoff preview.
Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo is likely going to play heavy minutes tonight with not just Anthony Edwards still out but his primary No. 2 in Ayo Dosunmu also sitting. There aren't many guards left on the roster, and 38-year-old Mike Conley can't be playing a ton. Forward Jaden McDaniels, and his 14.8 PPG, is also out, so that's even more potential shot attempts out there. DiVincenzo might top this in points alone, fuhgeddaboutit! Pretty sure I used that wrong ...
We won taking Indiana at home plus a bunch of points vs. the other L.A. team on Wednesday. In their past five roadies, the Clippers nearly and should have lost in Dallas (went to OT), lost twice in New Orleans, barely won at tanking Memphis and lost in San Antonio. Our model has the Clippers only by three as Indiana is apparently playing everyone not already shut down (like former Clipper Ivica Zubac). This might have to be a backdoor cover like Wednesday was, but that money spends the same.
New Orleans has been playing pretty good basketball in recent weeks with no reason to tank and Dejounte Murray back. The Pels haven't lost a game by more than five since March 3. This is mostly a fade of the Pistons, though, even though they are atop the East. They played a wild OT game last night vs. Atlanta with Jalen Duren getting 42 minutes and Daniss Jenkins 45 -- he's starting because Cade Cunningham is still out injured. Being as it's also a third game in four nights, I could see Duren taking a seat, and backup center Isaiah Stewart is still out injured.
End of a six-game trip for the Lakers on Wednesday, so they figure to be on fumes. They looked a bit tired in a close win last Saturday in Orlando and then very much so in Monday's loss in Detroit. Maybe LeBron James gets this one off after playing 39 minutes in Motown. Luka Doncic has played at least 38 minutes every game this trip. Hey, give him the night off, too. Marcus Smart is doubtful and Rui Hachimura iffy. Looks like the Pacers might try for one game with pretty much everyone who isn't done for the year expected to play in obviously one of the marquee home games of the season. Indiana has covered three straight.
Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.
Will the tanking Mavericks try at all is the main question because they are rested and pretty healthy. The Clippers have lost four straight, and it's the end of a three-game trip with Kawhi Leonard in question. With really not a ton to play for locked into the Play-In Tournament, I'd certainly just rest Kawhi if not close to 100% until get back home, but that's me. Trade acquisition Bennedict Mathurin is out again. He has been quite good since coming from Indiana, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Our model has L.A. by three and it projects Kawhi as playing.
I did not expect Houston to be swept in a two-game home series by the Lakers on Wednesday, I will admit that completely. And maybe I'm a bit opaque on the Rockets for some reason, but they should not lose again at home to the Hawks even if Atlanta has won a league-best 11 in a row. Front of a B2B for the Hawks and no Jonathan Kuminga, who has been a tremendous trade pickup and a guy I wished the Bulls acquired. Nah, they just got a bunch of 2035 second-round picks.
So tough to sweep one of these baseball-type series on the road in the NBA even against a bad team, much less a good one like Houston. I touch on this in today's newsletter, but I expect a very motivated Kevin Durant tonight after he played terribly in Monday's home loss to the Lakers. The Rockets also didn't have second-leading scorer and All-Star center Alperen Sengun, and he's back tonight. L.A. is rolling but also the front of a back-to-back with LeBron maybe peeking ahead to a return to Miami on Thursday.
The Thunder could win by 40 if they wanted but why? It's the second of a B2B after a tough game in Orlando on Tuesday, and Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and (probably) Chet Holmgren will sit in Brooklyn. Just get up by 20 and get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others out of there late third quarter. OKC is 1-8 ATS in its past nine. The Nets can win the battle of the backups late and cover.