When it comes to home/road splits, Tampa is over 100 points higher than Arizona the last couple weeks. When it comes to hitting right-handed pitching, the difference is 140 points. Nick Martinez has had his worst four starts in his last four starts (6.04 ERA in June), but here’s a good spot to get run support and bounce back. Zac Gallen’s entire season has been a nightmare. He has a 6.98 ERA in eight road starts and a 7.36 ERA in his last seven overall.

Seattle’s offense has fizzled, scoring three runs or less in 11 straight games. Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo has had his ups and downs, but he’s coming off an eight-inning, one-run gem vs. the Astros, and a five-inning, one-run shutdown of the Tigers. Seattle ranks 29th in OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks. Mariners RHP Luis Castillo has allowed 10 runs over 9.2 IP his last two starts, and the bullpen behind him has a 5.52 ERA since mid-June.

After going 0-3 with a 10.31 ERA in May, Orioles LHP Trevor Rogers is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA on June. That includes a seven-inning blanking of the Dodgers in his last start. Nationals LHP Andrew Alvarez has been as good as hoped, but he’s only going four innings per outing and the bullpen behind him has a 6.14 ERA since June 12 and just blew all three games vs. the Phillies. Baltimore is hitting at an .840 OPS clip at Camden Yards over the last two weeks and scored six-plus runs in three of its last four games overall.

Pirates phenom Paul Skenes has hit his first wall. Over his last seven starts, he’s 0-5 with a 4.03 ERA. That said, he’s tossed three straight games of six innings, allowing two runs in each. Skenes has one start vs. Cincy this season, allowing one run over five innings in a 77-pitch effort – and a win. The Reds have been limited to 0-1 runs in four of their last seven games and they’re striking out in 27.3% of at-bats the last two weeks.

Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler is the AL Cy Young favorite because he’s allowed 0-1 runs in 10 of his last 12 starts. He gets a Red Sox team he’s faced twice already this season; he's given up two earned runs on eight hits over 13.2 innings. So we’ll back a Yankees team that’s hitting left-handers against Connelly Early, whose ERA at Fenway is over two runs higher than his road split.

Troy Melton has been lights out in four of his five starts for the Tigers, so we’ll back him again here vs. an Astros order that’s scored over three runs just once in its last five outings. When he comes out, Detroit’s bullpen, with a 1.74 ERA since June 10, takes over. We can simultaneously fade Houston’s highly inconsistent Tatsuya Imai.

Over the last two weeks, the Royals have an OPS of .841 vs. right-handers – good for facing opener Casey Legumina – and an .813 OPS vs. left-handers – good vs. struggling bulk reliever Ian Seymour. Royals starter Seth Lugo has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts. We’ll fade everyone and back the Royals.

Boston owns a .996 OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks. Oh what fun it is to face Kyle Freeland, who owns an 8.50 ERA his last seven starts. Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez is either off (five starts allowing 4-5 runs) or really on (eight starts allowing 0-1 runs). He has a 2.21 ERA on the road and the Rockies have been held to three or fewer runs in five of their last seven at Coors.

Braves LHP Martin Perez got a win over Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers last time out, allowing one run over six frames. Here he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 29th in OPS vs. left-handers, and its 13 home runs ranks last. Atlanta isn’t much better hitting anyone lately, but should have a better shot against JP Sears, making his season debut after posing a 7.92 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts. The Padres bullpen is elite so we'll go First 5 here.

The Dodgers’ offense has fallen off a cliff lately, just four runs in the last three games and a putrid .540 OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks. They’ll start against one here in Kendry Rojas, who has a 1.26 ERA and allowed 11 hits in 14.1 innings. Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski has allowed 0-1 runs in three of his last four starts, going 6-7 innings in each. The Twins offense isn’t something to be feared. The Dodgers won the first game of this series 2-1. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in at Minnesota.

Casey Mize has had one start off the IL and it was only OK, but overall has a 1.98 ERA in his last seven starts. He also owns a 1.27 ERA five starts at home. The Yankees have dropped 4 of 5 and the offense has scored 12 runs in those five games combined. Carlos Rodon has a 4.05 road ERA. Detroit has won four straight, with 4-5 runs in all four games.

The Padres are a tough team to figure out. On paper this should be a legit contender, but in real life it’s not happening that way. That said, their offense is still better than the Acuna-less Braves right now. Only the Mariners have a worse OPS than Atlanta since June 9. San Diego RHP Michael King has been better at home and under the lights. Grant Holmes has a 2.78 ERA in day games, 5.09 at night.

Starting pitchers Gavin Williams of the Guardians and Anthony Kay of the White Sox have almost identical ERAs. Same goes for the bullpens the last couple weeks. But Williams outside of Cleveland has a 4.94 ERA. Kay in Chicago is 5-0, 3.08. That Kay is a left-hander, and Cleveland’s OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days is .517 (dead-last) doesn’t hurt.

Kumar Rocker goes for the Rangers after an opener. Last time out, he was torched for seven runs before being chased out of the 4th inning by the Twins. Rocker has a 6.92 ERA in three June starts and Miami's offense is hotter, especially at home. Tyler Phillips, meanwhile, has a miniscule 0.83 home ERA, allowing just one HR in those 32.2 IP. He's backed by a bullpen with a 2.01 ERA the last two weeks.

Reid Detmers is throwing well for the Angels right now. But the Athletics own a 1.070 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks, so they should plate some runs. The Angels also should against Jack Perkins, who owns a 7.62 ERA as a starter. The A’s bullpen boasts a 6.95 ERA in the last two weeks, too.