Bucks backup center/power forward Kel’el Ware saw his minutes jump from 13 in Game 1 of the season, to 15 in Game 2, to 29 in Game 3 as it became clear Myles Turner just isn’t getting it done. That latter game, against the talented 76ers, Ware had 19 points and 13 rebounds. Here, Ware and the Bucks take on a Pacers defense that’s dead-last in the NBA in production allowed to opposing centers. Ware can fly over this total if he gets the minutes he’s earned.

OKC big man Isaiah Hartenstein averages only 7 rebounds per game so far. But that’s way below his norm the last three seasons. With Chet Holmgren out vs. the Suns, someone needs to clean the glass. Hartstein is by far the best candidate. Without Holmgren out there, he’s also by far the No. 1 man on the offensive glass, and the Suns allow more offensive rebounds than anyone.

Anthony Edwards is a gametime decision, but a non-conference game on a Monday with a lingering knee soreness seems like a good spot to take a break. Ball’s average 17 ppg so this is a slight uptick in his small Timberwolves sample size. He has a larger sample size facing Cavaliers PG counterpart Donovan Mitchell. Over the last nine meetings, Ball has scored at least 21 points seven times. Cleveland (aka, Mitchell) allows the most points to opposing PGs in the league. Someone has to make up for Edwards’ missed 29 ppg. Ball seems like a logical choice.

The Lions are allowing 10 receptions for 109 yards to tight ends per game! Those have to be NFL records for TE coverage futility. Detroit’s defense is going to have its hands full slowing the big-play Packers from doing downfield. So look for Tucker Kraft to get opportunities. He’s eclipsed this total just twice in four games, but his 10-yards-per-reception average should get an uptick.

The Cardinals have been a homefield disaster, losing 45-21 to the Lions and 31-7 to the Seahawks. They just shocked the Rams on the road but the offense still managed only 18 points; that game was as much about the Rams' struggles. Denver is 4-2 without its offense doing much; it's scored more than 23 points just once (ironically, 30 points to the same Rams). Now, after a 10-day break, is a good time for it. Arizona is only NFL team to rank 20th or worse in pass and run offense, and pass and run defense.

Lamar Jackson remains questionable as of this post. But while Tyler Huntley struggled last week vs. the Browns, he was fine against the Titans and Falcons, teams that aren't great on defense. The Bengals rank 30th in rush yards allowed per attempt. If Jackson does play, him and Derrick Henry are going to light it up. Cincy allowed a season-high in points to the Buccaneers and Dolphins, both of whom also like to run first.

Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Buccaneers, so Bucky Irving may finally get to run without everyone on defense solely trying to slow him down. Irving hasn’t had fewer than 15 carries in any game since Week 1, and the last two weeks had 21 and 19. Carolina ranks dead-last in the NFL allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt. If Bucky averages 4.1 yards per carry he cruises over this total by the third quarter.

Aaron Jones has been a workhorse for the Vikings since Jordan Mason broke his thumb in Week 1. He’s rushed the ball at least 20 times in three of five games. The last two lines have been 25-for-113 and 20-for-94. Mason is now back, but Jones should still be RB1 for Sunday as Mason gets back into the swing of things. The Colts rank 27th in yards allowed per rush, so he shouldn’t even need 15 carries to get to this number.

The Steelers thrive when opposing teams can't stop the run. Jaylen Warren can get it going vs. a Saints D that's 30th in rush yards allowed and allows 4.8 yards per attempt. That sets up Aaron Rodgers to have a big day. Then the Steelers' defense can limit Tyler Shough, who's managed only 240 pass yards the last two weeks combined.

Offensively, the Brewers were better than the Rays in every way except home runs. Tampa needs dingers to keep up. Jacob Misiorowski has allowed one homer in his last 10 starts, and that was to likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. Milwaukee’s bullpen has given up two HRs in 40.1 postseason innings. There’s not a clear path to scoring for the Rays. For the Brewers, Nick Martinez is certainly solid, but since Aug. 29 he’s allowed 2-4 runs in six of eight starts. That might be enough. Over half of Milwaukee’s regulars have hit at least one HR off Martinez. We’ll lay the juice for Game 1.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a PRA total of 42 vs. a Spurs team with ball-swatting Victor Wembanyama down in the paint. So it stands to reason that he should do better with defense-optional Nikola Jokic guarding the rim, right? Last year’s numbers back that up. In three games vs. Denver, SGA’s PRA totals were 52, 48 and 59. That he edged out Joker for last year’s MVP only adds to a motive for high production.

Giannis Antetokounmpo makes his Heat debut at home vs. a Timberwolves team that should score, but also miss, a lot of shots. Minnesota has space-eater Rudy Gobert, but in the last five matchups between him and Giannis, the Greek Freak has secured at least 13 rebounds in four of them. The Wolves were surprisingly average in rebounding last year on both ends of the court.

Dennis Schroder averaged a decent 4.5 assists per game last year for the Kings and Cavaliers when coming off the bench. In 17 starts, that average jumped to 6.0 per game. Projected Hornets starting PG Coby White is out, as is backcourt mate Kon Knueppel, so it’s up to White and Grayson Allen to lead the charge. Allen is the more pure scorer of the two, so it’s likely up to Schroder to run the Charlotte show. Brooklyn last season ranked 26th in assists per made basket.

Myles Turner was a first-year disappointment in Milwaukee last season. That especially goes for his rebounding, a career-worst 5.3 boards per game. Well, Giannis is gone and Turner’s post running mate in Milwaukee is Kyle Kuzma. In other words, if Turner doesn’t get the boards, nobody is going to. Washington ranked 26th in rebounding last year. It’s going to be a long season if the starting center can’t secure five boards on Opening Night.

What an amazing matchup, the defending champions against a rival team of assembled superstars built to knock them off. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown join the 76ers. Tyrese Maxey is out there as well. So there are only so many buckets to go around. This is a high total for Joel Embiid, who over the last two Opening Nights is a combined 3-for-20 shooting for 17 points. He faced Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks three times last year and scored 24, 18 and 14. Preseason means nearly nothing, but Embiid played a robust 26.5 minutes per game in his two outings and averaged 16.5 ppg.