Over the last two weeks, the Marlins’ OPS vs. left-handed pitching Is .574. That’s the worst mark in the league. So who do the Marlins face here? How about Royals LHP Noah Cameron, who over his last seven starts is 4-0 with a ridiculous 1.29 ERA. He’s allowed 21 hits over his last 48.2 innings. A rested KC bullpen has a 3.50 ERA over the past 14 days. Miami has scored 5+ runs just once in its last seven games.

In his last seven starts, Mariners RHP Bryce Miller is 0-5 with a 7.18 ERA. Over the last two weeks, the Seattle bullpen owns a not-so-solid 8.14 ERA. So Boston at home should find opportunities. Meanwhile, the Mariners have dropped five straight, scoring 0-1 runs in three of those games. Left-handed pitching has been a big issue for the Seattle lineup; Red Sox LHP Patrick Sandoval can give up his usual two runs over five-plus frames, then we pray the Boston relievers hold it down against the bottom-scoring lineup of 2026.

This is pretty close to my limit for moneyline odds favorites. But it's going to get to -200 before first pitch, so I’ll snag it now. Gerrit Cole, who owns a 1.96 ERA over his last six starts, faces an Angels team that’s 26th in hitting off right-handers and 28th in hitting at home over the last two weeks, and has eclipsed three runs once in the last nine games. Angels RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been better of late, but he still has a 7.79 ERA in nine home starts. New York’s offense put up 25 runs in its last two games vs. Boston.

Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi has had his issues this season (0-4, 6.25 ERA in eight starts). But at home his ERA is a solid 3.27. On the other side you have Zack Wheeler, who’s in a slump but is still Zack Wheeler. This is a good spot for both pitchers to figure it out. The Phillies and Angels rank rank 29th and 30th in hitting in August day games. The bullpens have been good enough.

So far, no good for Luis Castillo since being moved from the Mariners to the White Sox. He owns a 5.89 ERA in four starts, and that includes a seven-inning, one-hit gem vs. the Reds. But he can hold his own against a Twins team that’s lost five of six, scored two runs or fewer in half of them. The Sox offense put up 11 and 10 in its last two games. Twins RHP Dean Kremer has been solid in four starts from Minnesota after being moved by the Orioles, but he was dreadful in his final outings for Baltimore. The law of averages says he’s eventually going to fall back, and Chicago has the offense to spark such a turn.

Lost in how great Jacob Misiorowski has been for the Brewers is how great Logan Henderson has been for the Brewers. On the year he’s 8-2 with a 2.60 ERA, allowing three runs just two times in 13 starts. Here, Henderson is backed by a Milwaukee bullpen that owns a 1.03 ERA since August 13. The Rangers’ offense has been fairly inconsistent, and this seems like a tough matchup for any team. Meanwhile, Rangers LHP Cody Bradford is going 75-80 pitches. Milwaukee is hitting left-handers hard and its .863 home OPS the last two weeks ranks fourth in MLB.

Dodgers LHP Tarik Skubal heads back to Detroit and will certainly play in front of an emotional and charged-up fanbase. Skubal should be fine facing a lineup that’s dead-last in OPS vs. left-handers over the last two weeks. The Tigers are also 27th in home OPS in that span. In four starts so far with L.A., Skubal has struck out at least six in all of them. In his last start, vs. Pittsburgh, he fanned 11. In fact, he’s K’d six-plus in 11 of 12 starts. This seems like a spot to be one step above the floor.

Diamondbacks rookie Jose Cabrera allowed no runs over five innings in his debut, then over the next three starts gave up 11 runs over 12.2 IP. Now he’s back from a minor league stint in which he posted a 6.83 ERA in 29 IP. The Giants' OPS of .748 over the last two weeks is notably better than the D'backs' .689. We'll trust Giants RHP Landen Roupp to fight through 4-5 frames and hand it to a pen with a 2.52 ERA since mid-August.

An interesting number for the Phillies, given that Mariners pitcher George Kirby has now been blown up in two straight and in three of five, and the bullpen behind him has a hilarious 10.20 ERA the last 14 days. Philadelphia has won nine straight and has scored four runs in all nine games. We don't trust Aaron Nola to do his part for the Phils, but the bats should do theirs.

A half-unit play. We all know what Paul Skenes can do. But he’s not doing it, and now has five straight starts of the non-quality variety. The Padres are hot, with an .859 OPS at home and .781 OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks. Michael King has a 3.09 ERA over his last eight starts and a 2.81 ERA in all night games; he and a Padres pen that’s Top 3 in everything since the All-Star break can limit a middling Pirates order.

The Cubs have scored at least four runs in seven of their last eight games. They poured on 19 runs on the Mariners last night before traveling to Phoenix here for a matchup with Merrill Kelly, who owns a 6.24 ERA in 10 starts at Chase Field. He's allowed five runs in three of his last four overall, all in five innings or fewer.

Casey Mize had a rough Padres debut on Aug. 5 after being traded from the Tigers. But since then he’s allowed just two runs over 12 innings, including a six-inning blanking of the Guardians. Here he gets a Twins lineup that owns a brutal .474 road OPS the last few weeks. Mize and a Padres pen with a 2.18 ERA the last two weeks should contain the Minnesota bats. Meanwhile, the Padres are mashing and Dean Kremer has a 9.47 ERA over his last four starts and has been brutal on the road.

The Royals have won six straight and scored four-plus runs in the last five. They can continue that trend here at home against Tigers reliever-turned-starter Drew Anderson. Anderson has pitched relief three times vs. the Royals this season and has been tagged in each, allowing seven runs on nine hits over a combined 3.1 innings. KC ranks dead-last this season in scoring on the road but is ninth at home (4.6 rpg).

The Brewers with Jacob Misiorowski edged the Braves with Chris Sale 2-1 on Friday. Another stellar pitching matchup here, but we’ll side with the Brew Crew a second straight night, and for the same reasons. Milwaukee’s hitting has been far better of late, including a home OPS this month that’s 300 points higher than Atlanta’s road split. Braves LHP Martin Perez has been 2.5 runs worse on the road and Brewers RHP Logan Henderson has been lights out everywhere.

It’s been over a month since the Cubs lost the first game of a road series. Matchups are favorable here to continue that trend. The Cubbies are 11-4 when LHP Tyler Boyd starts, and he’s posted a 2.57 ERA in seven road starts and a 3.00 ERA in eight night games. The Mariners have managed just two runs or less in five of their last six at T-Mobile Park. Chicago has been hitting at an .813 OPS clip on the road in August. Emerson Hancock has his shutdown moments, but the Mariners pen has an 8.55 August ERA, the worst in the majors by over two runs.