Robbie Ray is 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA over his past seven starts. He faces a Mariners lineup with a home OPS of .422 the last two weeks. The Giants are the No. 2-hitting team on Sundays this season and its road OPS in July is .806. Logan Gilbert is good, but the Mariners starter has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts, and his home ERA is nearly two runs higher than his road split. The Giants have won four of six, with the two losses each by a single run.

Casey Mize has a 2.79 ERA, the bullpen behind him as a 1.30 ERA since the Fourth. The Angels have lost 12 of 14 and have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of those games. This feels like another low-scoring output is coming. Meanwhile, The Tigers have won eight of 10; the two defeats, they were held to 2 and 0 runs vs. Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler. Angels starter Ryan Johnson isn’t Sanchez or Wheeler. He has a 6.75 ERA on the season, and the Angels’ bullpen is scuttling.

Paul Skenes against a Guardians offense that’s 29th in scoring, 28th in average and 27th in home runs? I know Skenes isn’t his usual dominant self, and he’s really had issues in day games. But the Pirates are the No. 1-hitting offense on Sundays all season and in July has a .906 OPS vs. left-handers. Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo is on a hot streak, but a top-tier offense with Skenes at plus money is worth a gamble.

I feel like the wrong team is favored here. No Ronald Acuna of course, but over the last two weeks, the Braves are crushing at home (.946 OPS) and hitting right-handers well (.846). The Rangers’ road OPS split is 300 points lower. Nathan Eovaldi is actually a worse day game pitcher and he’s given up three-plus runs in eight of his nine starts. Braves starter Grant Holmes has a 2.97 ERA in that span, so we’ll look past the hair.

Sean Burke has a 2.92 road ERA and a 2.90 ERA in his last seven games overall. The bullpen behind him owns a 1.70 ERA the last two weeks. That trends well for the White Sox against a Blue Jays offense that’s been highly inconsistent. Chicago had scored nine-plus runs in three of four before Saturday’s 1-0 loss. It should find moments vs. Trey Yesavage, another inconsistent piece of Toronto’s puzzling season.

Washington won 23-4 in the opener of this series. We can’t expect 23 runs again, but the Nats can score on anyone, and that includes J.T. Ginn, who has a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts. Washington’s road OPS this month is a wacky 1.313 and its OPS vs. right-handers is nearly .900. Meanwhile, Nationals RHP Zack Little has a 1.80 ERA in two July starts and has given up six runs over his last four starts combined. The A’s simply aren’t hitting anyone right now.

If you believe Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal can shut down an Angels lineup that’s been better vs. left-handers than right-handers, then the Tigers are worth backing. Skubal owns a 1.38 lifetime ERA at Angel Stadium, and Detroit’s pen ERA this month is at 1.24. Detroit is in an offensive slump as well, but L.A. RHP Grayson Rodriguez has a 7.55 ERA in seven starts and the Angels pen has a 5.56 ERA in July.

The A’s don’t score. They’re lost 13 of 14. They haven’t put a crooked number on the scoreboard in five straight. They’ve managed over two runs just one time in their last eight games. Neither team has a bullpen, so starter stamina is an asset here. Nationals RHP Cade Cavalli has gone six-plus innings in three of four and allowed three runs or less in six straight. A’s LHP Gage Jump hasn’t lasted six innings in four straight. Washington’s home OPS and OPS vs. left-handers in July is over 1.000.

The Tigers laid a pair of eggs to the Phillies to close out the first half, but prior to that had won nine of 10, averaging 6.1 runs per game. They’ve especially crushed left-handers to the tune of an .858 OPS – bad news for Angels LHP Reid Detmers, who has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts and has yet to gain a win at home. So we’ll happily back Troy Melton, who is 5-1 with a 1.82 ERA in eight starts, and a Tigers bullpen with a 2.97 ERA in July. They can combine to hold down an Angels team that’s dropped 10 of 12 and held to three or fewer runs in eight of those games.

Brady Singer is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in nine road starts. He’s had issues with left-dominated orders, and Colorado will have six, including three of its top four. The Rockies’ offense has been hitting but not scoring due to a lack of the clutch hit. In July the team’s home OPS is .998, its OPS vs. right-handers at .845. Those splits are far higher than those of the Reds. Rockies prospect Gabriel Hughes threw six quality innings vs. the Dodgers in his first start, this after a three-inning, zero-run relief spot vs. the Giants. He’s backed by a bullpen that’s actually delivering (2.13 ERA in July).

We like runs to be scored in the opening game of the second half of the season. Christian Scott has been solid for the Mets, but he’s gone five innings or less in eight of 10 starts, and never made it six. Aaron Nola has been bad everywhere but way worse at home (6.81 ERA in eight starts). It’s possible neither pitcher goes more than give innings. Expect runs to be scored when moves are made; these have been the worst two bullpens in July, the Phillies boasting an 8.05 ERA, the Mets at 9.61. Teams are hitting .335 off Mets relievers for the month! In July, the Mets’ road OPS is .787, the Phillies at home are .860, solid marks.

Twins starter Taj Bradley has given up only six runs on 16 hits over his last four starts (24 innings). He faces an Angels team that’s posted a poor .580 OPS vs. RHPs in July. Conversely, the Twins’ OPS is .782 – over 200 points higher – and Jose Soriano’s hot season start has cooled big-time. Minnesota has a decided bullpen edge here as well.

Mets rookie Zach Thornton pitched a gem in his second career game on June 26 vs. the Phillies. But now he gets the Red Sox, who are crushing left-handers to the tune of a .936 OPS this month. The Mets’ bullpen in July is a hilarious 10.70. Boston needs to score runs here, while Sox LHP Peyton Tolle, who has a 2.87 ERA on the road, can limit a Mets lineup that's managed two runs so far this series.

Whether it’s Craig Counsell’s game planning or not, the Cubs are the worst hitting team on Sundays in MLB. Here they face Andrew Abbott, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since April, and a Reds bullpen with a July ERA of 1.84. The Cubs’ relievers this month are at 7.04. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd has gone over five innings just twice all season. We’ll throw a bone to the home dog.

The Athletics have cratered, losing 10 of their last 11. They’ve scored two runs or less in four of their last five games. The last two weeks, their team OPS is .551 vs. right-handers, and .518 on the road. That’s makes it a good spot for White Sox starter Sean Burke. In his last four starts, he’s given up five total runs over 25 innings. Three of those runs came on solo homers. The A’s have two home runs off right-handers over their last 99 at-bats. The White Sox bats were non-existent in Boston, scoring just two runs in a three-game sweep. If they can’t bounce back at home against Jacob Lopez (8.07 ERA last seven starts), that’s trouble.