Adam's Picks (3 Live)
Shota Imanaga has given up 20 runs over his last three starts, including six home runs. That’s not good with the wind blowing out to the left-field bleachers against an A’s lineup that’s hitting lefties with the best of them. Meanwhile, J.T. Ginn has a 2.37 ERA his last seven starts with a 2.08 ERA on the road all year. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game in over a month. And he’s only allowed six home runs in 13 games.
Not a usual backer of teams using openers, but the Twins’ bullpen has been solid over the last week, and the Royals have the worst road offense in baseball, just 3.3 runs per game. Even the Rockies have more road wins than the Royals (9-21). Not only does KC have the worst road offense in MLB, its bullpen ERA the last two weeks is 7.79 – also worst in the majors – and starter Seth Lugo has a 5.45 ERA his last seven games.
Over the last two weeks, the Blue Jays have a paltry .570 OPS vs. left-handers, including an MLB-worst .160 batting average. That has to be catnip to Braves LHP Chris Sale, who owns a 1.40 ERA his last seven starts. He’s 4-1 with a 0.60 ERA at Truist Park. If trends play out, Toronto may have issues getting five hits off Sale, who will go 100 pitches then get pulled regardless of how well it’s going.
Knicks score-first PG Jalen Brunson has registered at least six assists in eight of the Knicks’ last 10 games. He overall trended higher than that all season (6.8), and trended even higher against the Spurs, with 7, 8 and 8 assists. I think Josh Hart is going to have issues against Stephon Castle; Hart’s potential assists go to Brunson.
Victor Wembanyama hasn’t had 12 rebounds in five straight games. Prior to that, though, he’d had at least 14 in seven of nine. I’ll lean on that latter trend. He had 13 rebounds in two of three regular-season meetings with Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks. He had 24 and 15 boards in Game 1 of the last two series.
In three games vs. the Knicks in the regular season, Julian Champagnie scored just three points in two of them. In the other, a Spurs win, he scored a season-high 36 points. Champagnie averages 11.4 ppg on the season but scored 20-plus in two of the final three games vs. the Thunder. Champagnie can have another big game if he stays on the offensive.
Sandy Alcantara has a 6.30 ERA over his last seven starts, a 6.07 ERA in five road starts and a 6.27 ERA in six evening starts. The Nationals have an .806 OPS the last two weeks vs. right-handers, so they’re in a good spot here. Miami has been horrid on the road (8-19) and is 6-23 as an underdog. The offense has scored exactly one run in five straight games. Nats starter Cade Cavalli is going for a fourth-straight quality start.
I wanted to back Stephon Castle in rebounds, but the 5.5 line is tricky since he’s stopped at five boards in four of the six games. Assists, he’s had anywhere from 6 to 11 this series. Scoring, he’s had 24- and 25-point games, and 13- and 14-point efforts. But put it all together, and he’s contributing. His PRA totals have topped 31 in four of the six games. His PRA totals in the three games at OKC are 31, 35 and 38.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to take over in some capacity. He might score 30, but even if he does, he’s going to be the key facilitator for everything the Thunder are going to do. He’s had 9+ assists in four of six this series, including all three at Paycom Center. In his last four closeout games – two this season, and in the NBA Finals and Western Conference Finals of last season – he’s totaled at least eight assists in all of them.
The points total for Victor Wembanyama in Game 6 was 27.5. He scored 28, but 22 of those came in the first half when the game was still competitive. Wemby scored 21 and 20 in his last two games in OKC. He also had 44 in the first one (albeit in 48 minutes in a double-OT thriller). I would expect he will play as many minutes as possible. There’s a clear line between San Antonio’s success and Wemby’s offensive aggressiveness. This is the biggest game of his career and, like Giannis Antetokounmpo before him, Wemby has the will to deliver.
Shota Imanaga has been rocked in his last two outings, allowing 15 runs over 10.1 innings in losses to the Brewers and Astros. Prior to that, he’d allowed two runs or fewer in seven of eight starts. Shota has been much better on the road (3.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), and he’s here in St. Louis against a Cardinals team with a .588 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks. After losing 10 in a row, the ultra-streaky Cubs have now won two straight and scoring 17 runs in those games. Speaking of home/road splits, Cardinals RHP Andre Pallante is 4-0 on the road, but 1-4 with a 4.82 ERA at home.
Zack Wheeler is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA for the Phillies. He’s allowed one run over his last three starts. But the Dodgers are hitting well, their OPS vs. right-handers is .821 over the last two weeks and the lineup has a lifetime .316 average against Wheeler himself. L.A. is averaging 6.8 runs over its last 11. The Phillies have managed 16 runs over those seven games (2.3 rpg). Dodgers starter Justin Wrboleski has a 2.89 ERA his last seven starts and the bullpen owns a 1.35 ERA the last two weeks.