The Guardians’ bats have fallen silent. ...

The 49ers are 5-0 and have scored 32-35 points three times. ...

The Chargers have been nothing short of a disaster. They've scored over 17 points just once and are 0-5. But they've lost their last three games to the Bills by 8, Seahawks by 7 and Broncos by 6. Buffalo and Seattle games were on the road. KC's offense is on the same level as the Bills, and its defense not as ferocious as the Seahawks. KC is unbeaten, but let lesser teams like the Colts and Raiders hang, beating each by a field goal. If Justin Herbert can get some blocking, this can easily be another close Chiefs game.

After rushing for 102 yards in Week 1, Ashton Jeanty hasn’t gained more than 58 yards in any of the following four games. As his rushing yards have gone down, his receiving yards have risen, with 68 and 50 yards the last two games vs. the Chiefs and Patriots. The Bills rank a modest 15th vs. the run, but a poor 30th vs. the pass. They give up 48.4 receiving yards to RBs per game, third-highest.

Since the Patriots were ambushed by the Jaguars 35-6, they've beaten the Bills (as a +7 underdog) and smashed the Raiders, a team more on the Jets' level, 45-17. Drake Maye has gotten out of his funk and the Pats are 2-0 ATS as favorites, winning those games by 28 and 17 points. New England will be ready for a Jets offense missing Breece Hall. A back-door cover is tougher for Geno Smith against the Pats' fourth-ranked pass defense.

The Saints were a contender to be the NFL's darling team after two weeks. But since then it's been ugly, losing to the Raiders, Falcons and Vikings by an average of 13 ppg, and they were favored in two of those. You never know what you'll get from Jameis Winston, but the team has scored 36 and 27 the last two weeks. Cam Skattebo should do his part vs. a New Orleans run defense that's 26th in yards allowed per rush. New York can't stop the run either, but the Saints lack the personnel to take advantage.

Things haven’t been smooth for C.J. Stroud and the 1-4 Houston Texans. But he’s still getting his, throwing for at least 261 yards in four of those five games. Now he adds Marvin Harrison Jr. to the receiving mix. His bottom-two games have both been on the road, but here the Texans are going to Jacksonville, which is allowing over 270 pass yards per game. Houston’s RB1 David Montgomery is out, so look for the Texans to put the ball in Stroud’s hands over and over.

The Bills rank 27th vs. the pass, so here comes Matthew Stafford and his weapons. We’d normally back Stafford in a prop here, but the Bills aren’t great vs. the run, either, so it’s choose-your-poison time. Certainly Josh Allen is going to get his, but it’s going to be much tougher against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense. L.A. which is 2-2 but ranks No. 2 in both total offense and total defense, is getting value on the spread.

The Lions can’t stop anyone from throwing the ball. But the Cardinals can’t stop Jared Goff, either, and we’ll certainly lean on Goff and his weapons. Detroit has scored at least 31 every week, Arizona has allowed at least 31 three straight weeks.

Seahawks RB Emanuel Wilson didn’t have a single reception in his first three games. When in Week, he had three receptions for 39 yards. The air-tight 49ers defense ranks No. 9 vs. the run and No. 8 the pass, but in an interesting twist, allow the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Wilson may not find a lot of running room, but should get opportunities in the pass game.

The last three weeks, Aaron Jones is averaging 20 carries per game. The last two games, he’s added 4-5 receptions. Jones has totaled 105, 92 and 128 yards in the last three. The Saints’ defense is missing some key tacklers and already allows 5.1 yards per carry and ranked dead-last in rush yards allowed going into Week 5. The Vikings will find a way to get Jones the ball, especially with Justin Jefferson out.

I watched enough of last week’s game in London to have any faith in Daniel Jones or a Colts defense that was carved up by a Commanders third-stringer without his top option (see my Giants-Commanders pick for what I think of Washington). Indy’s defense ranks 26th vs. the run and 28th vs. the pass. Pittsburgh’s defense has been prone to lapses. The Steelers had a long layoff to regroup since losing last Thursday to the Browns. The turnover-prone Colts should give additional opportunities to the Steelers, who rank second in takeaways.

Jayden Daniels is trending toward returning for the Commanders. But the offense played its best week with Marcus Mariota under center. The Giants were defense-first before pouring 36 on the Cardinals in Week 4. They’re still run-first, which limits touches to Daniels. I don’t think either team pulls away, making the spread, and this number in particular, valuable.

Walker Buehler allowed just one run over six innings vs. the Brewers earlier this season, but posted a 4.43 ERA in five September starts and has given up at least one HR in seven straight games. He’ll likely be asked to go about three innings, but there’s likely no Mason Miller again and no Michael King out of the Padres bullpen. The Brewers’ setup looks better: Starting Chad Patrick, who didn’t allow a run in eight September spots until the final one, then Robert Gasser, who posted a 1.67 ERA in five Sept. starts. The Brewers’ back end is fresh and ready for innings 7-8-9.

It’s been a so-so season for Tyler Glasnow, but his stuff remains solid, and his 2.84 ERA on the road was stellar. A rested bullpen behind him owns a 1.91 ERA since mid-September, but expect a quick hook if there’s trouble. Atlanta has not hit well of late, and the Dodgers was the highest-scoring road team all season. Braves starter Tyler Mahle has been rock-solid but not sure the run support or bullpen help, or managerial help (only one ATL starter has gone over three innings this series).