ANALYSIS:

ANALYSIS: I'm backing the Nuggets in game 1 at 8.5 and -9 across several different books and price points. This is a tough spot for Miami after the 7-game series with the Celtics and now have to deal with Nikola Jokic at altitude. NBA teams don't often see matchups like this where opposing teams can run offensive sets through their center. Miami was effective against Boston because they were able to switch nearly every screen, and because Boston continued to miss threes at a significant rate. The thing that stands out here for the Nuggets is the overall size against the Miami lineups. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon both have the ability to get shots up over these smaller defenders. I'm on the Nuggets.

ANALYSIS: My sims like the Under in this matchup with Max Scherzer and Taijuan Walker on the mound. Scherzer has been incredible at home, and likely catches a watered down version of the Phillies lineup today with questions around Bohm and normal day off situations we typically see in day games. On the other side I'm expecting a heavy dose of the split-finger and sinking fastballs from Walker. Overall this is a solid pitching environment in one of the worst hitting parks in MLB (28th). Take the Under.

ANALYSIS: I'm on the Celtics again tonight as I have them winning 61 percent of simulations meaning this line should be closer to -156. The Celtics are still the best team in the NBA in terms of RIM and 3 Rate (per ShotQuality) and that is what I'm looking to bet on most here as they consistently get quality shots. It's never fun fading a motivated Jimmy Butler, but I don't think he has enough help at this point in the series outside of a 6+ made threes game from Duncan Robinson.

ANALYSIS: I like this spot for the Cardinals as my computer says the wrong team is favored in this game. I have St. Louis winning 53 percent of sims, which suggests they should be -113 favorites in this matchup. I want to pick on Shane Bieber and take advantage of his name value propping up this moneyline price. Bieber has largely outperformed expected data on his 4-seam fastball where the xwBOA is up over .360 and the cutter is .428 with 3 HR against just that pitch. When it comes to offensive production the Guardians are one of the worst teams in MLB against left-handed pitching. Back the Cardinals after Goldschmidt and Arenado received the day off on Thursday.