Locking this in now at -118 on FanDuel. I make the number -137 (57.8% sim win%). I like this Orioles lineup against left-handed pitching, and I have major concerns with Tyler Anderson's barrel rate and massive gap in wOBA vs. xwOBA. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.

I played the Astros -110 on SuperBook (also available at Bet365). I have Houston winning 56 percent of simulations which implies -127. I think this is a good buy low spot as we get a friendly wind day at Wrigley against a lefty.

Reid Detmers has been good to start the season for the Angels, but I like this Orioles offense against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has the ability to run 8 right-handed hitters to start the game if they want to. This is a nice individual matchup for Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Santander. I have the Orioles winning 53 percent of simulations which implies -113.

This line should be o9 with juice or o9.5 at +100. Dean Kremer and Alec Marsh have both significantly over-performed this season in terms of xwOBA. Both teams rank top 10 in MLB against RHP. I love that we can cash this with a 5-4 game. I'm on the OVER 8.5 (-115)

I played New York +100 on SuperBook. I make the Yankees 54 percent winners in this matchup with Stroman vs. Gausman, which implies a moneyline price of -117. I have major concerns about the barrel rate on Gausman's fastball, which is down in velocity early this season.

I'm backing the Rangers again today as Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford should be back in the lineup. I have Texas winning 57 percent of simulations which makes this line -133. Casey Mize has struggled with hard contact most of his career and he will again this season. You can find this at -118 on SuperBook.

I have the Rangers winning 57 percent of simulations which suggest this price should be -133. Reese Olson's barrel rate in early 2024 is nearly identical to the very poor mark he put up last season. The Rangers should have success against the slider and 4-seam fastball.

The Cubs pitching edge gets even stronger in the best pitching environment in baseball. Emerson Hancock should struggle with this Cubs lineup. I have Chicago winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests they should be -144.

I have the Phillies winning 59 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -144 with Aaron Nola against Lance Lynn. Lynn has had a nice career but he's clearly past his prime in his age 36 season. Lynn has already been barreled 5 times on just 26 batted balls this season.

My simulations make the Orioles 60 percent winners with Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello which implies this line should be -150. I expect Bello to really struggle with Henderson, Rutschman, and Santander from the left side of the plate. I played this -129 on SuperBook and would play it up to -140.

BOILER UP!

I have the Dodgers winning 60 percent of simulations in this matchup which implies this money line should be -150. Bailey Ober is still overvalued in this matchup as he tends to give up a lot of hard contact through the air. Look for a nice offensive day from the Dodgers.

My simulations make UConn -8 which is still a very healthy number for a Final 4 game. Alabama is one of the best Rim & 3 Rate teams in the country, and they achieve this with a unique blend of pace and size. I believe Donovan Glingan will struggle to play more than 25 minutes due to fouls and pace. With the game never really in doubt, a backdoor cover at 11.5 is well within the range of outcomes here. Take the points.

I played the Orioles at -130 on SuperBook and would still play them up to -138 in this matchup. Jared Jones is a respected prospect that looked good in his first appearance, but I have some concerns about the youngster who will really only feature two pitches (slider and 4-seam fastball). My simulations make the Orioles 59 percent winners behind Rodriguez, which suggests this line should be -144.

Wednesday 4/3 - Musgrove vs. Thompson. I like the Under 8.5 (-120) here as I think this line should be 7.5 and will likely close at 8. It's possible that we'll see watered-down lineups with the afternoon start time, but either way, I like the pitching matchup in one of the best pitching environments in MLB. I will share more in depth on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.