My simulations make this game 151 and SportsLine is even higher at 153, so at 147.5 we’re getting real value relative to projection. The key here is offensive grading. Both teams rate out extremely well in shot quality metrics, creating efficient looks at the rim and from three rather than living on low-percentage shots. I also give Arizona the edge in dictating tempo at home, which should keep this played at their preferred pace. Over 147.5
Both of these teams are elite at the line, which is huge for late-game scoring in what projects as a tight game. Kansas is also in a strong bounce-back spot offensively at home, and both sides can generate points in transition when opportunities are there. I make this total 144.5, so I like the Over.
My sims make this total closer to the high-140s. The tempo tug-of-war is key: Oklahoma State wants to run, but Kansas is elite at forcing teams into half-court sets, and they bring a top-10 defensive efficiency profile into a February conference road spot where possessions naturally tighten. Oklahoma State’s offense is outside the top 60, and when they step up in class against defenses like this, their efficiency tends to dip. This is a classic spot where the market is pricing pace more than matchup. Kansas’ defensive rating plus their ability to control game flow is the edge, and that points clearly to value on the under.
My number on this game is 142, so I’m well over the market at 134.5. Both teams pressure defensively, but that can backfire in transition, and those easy run-outs spike efficiency quickly, plus Houston’s elite free throw shooting usually travels which is huge for late-game scoring. When I factor in possession efficiency and foul equity in a projected tight game, this total just grades out several points too low.
Sam Darnold doesn’t need designed runs here. The interior of the offensive line has been vulnerable, and pressure up the middle is what forces quarterbacks to take off rather than hang in the pocket or throw it away. You really only need one or two scramble situations to get close, and kneel-downs count as carries if this game plays to script late. Low number, multiple paths to cash, and a prop market that routinely underprices quarterback rushing attempts with non-mobile players.
My primary position on this game is Ole Miss at +4.5, which is not available on the site. I also have 0.25u on the moneyline at +150, as I have Ole Miss winning 47% of simulations, which gives us a sim line of +113. Miami’s defensive front is elite, but I think Ole Miss’s tempo and the controlled chaos of Trinidad Chambliss can give Miami trouble when they are unable to make defensive substitutions at key moments, particularly as the game goes on.
The market had Alabama +1.5 against Georgia on a neutral field at a time when the Crimson Tide were far more banged up than they are heading into this game. I’m not ready to say Indiana is anywhere near -6 versus Georgia on a neutral. Alabama matches up well here from a raw talent and size standpoint. I think they keep this within a touchdown if they don’t find a way to win outright. SportsLine makes this spread -1, and while I’m not quite there myself, I make Indiana -2.5 on a neutral site. I still have to play it at +7.5.
Pay-to-find-out spot here for me. Texas Tech has had a great season and will clearly be a player every year going forward in the NIL era in the Big 12, but I think they are just one year early here. I expect them to struggle running the ball against Oregon, which should put them in third-and-five-plus situations too often. Oregon gave up points to JMU when the game was no longer in doubt, but they certainly heard about it and should bring a much better effort in this one. Texas Tech ranks 119th in college football in average third-down distance at 7.66 yards, a number that largely came against subpar Big 12 defenses. Multiple-unit pay-to-find-out spot. This number should be -3 with a -147 moneyline.
Rare player prop, as it’s very difficult to get any real volume down on these with betting limits in place. Looking to get 0.25u on Matthew Stafford under 33.5 pass attempts. Simply speculating that the Rams may limit starters late in this game, as they’re locked into a road wild-card spot after Sunday’s results. I like a heavier ground attack between the 20s while still letting Stafford throw touchdown passes for the MVP race. McVay has typically been quick to rest guys when the opportunity presents itself, and I’d expect that to some degree with an outdoor road playoff game ahead.
The Crimson Tide do just enough offensively to secure a big road win in Norman. Alabama is a team that should benefit from the mini-break and extra prep time heading into this matchup. Oklahoma ranks outside the top 90 in offensive EPA per play, and that inefficiency shows up here. Alabama wins.
My simulations make this line -6.5 for Buffalo, while the SportsLine model projects it at -14 (!!). Atlanta’s defensive metrics are inflated due to a soft early-season schedule against weak opposing quarterback play.
The ultimate buy-low spot for the Wildcats. Dylan Edwards has been medically cleared to play, which should provide a nice boost to Avery Johnson and the K-State offense, but I still like them even if he doesn’t take the field. This is an absolute must-win game for K-State, and I make them -3
The addition of Ben Johnson as head coach is going to be an immediate boost for Caleb Williams and the Bears offensively. J.J. McCarthy may be a solid QB, but I’m more than willing to fade him in his NFL debut on the road in primetime—especially with one of his top receivers, Jordan Addison, out and Justin Jefferson possibly less than 100%. I make the Bears -2 home favorites in this game. Play +2 (-112) if you have BetRivers, or +1.5 (-105) at FanDuel or other books.
There’s plenty of familiarity on both sides when it comes to these defensive units matching up against the opposing quarterbacks. The Jets hold the edge at quarterback and across the skill positions, which makes catching a full +3 at home particularly appealing given that I project this game as a true pick’em. With a strong defensive front and secondary depth, the Jets are well-positioned to generate enough disruption to keep Aaron Rodgers and the opposing offense off balance.
I make Ole Miss -13.5 in this "revenge" game, as Kentucky is the team that kept Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff. I project the Wildcats to take a step backward this season, while early in the year is when I want to back Lane Kiffin. Kentucky should have a tough time scoring in this game.