ANALYSIS: The fortunes of the Rangers and Cardinals have all but reversed from the preseason expectations. Texas looks like a World Series contender, and Dane Dunning has been one of the team's most impressive pitchers. The outright dysfunction that seemed to define the early season for St. Louis seems to have quieted down, but give me the Rangers here. They're winning outright in 63% of my model's simulations.

ANALYSIS: We got burned last night by Aaron Nola looking like Aaron Nola again and the Tigers looking like, well, the Tigers. Taijuan Walker has not had a good season thus far, and the power lurking under the surface of Detroit's uninspiring lineup should get a chance to take center stage. Again, the Phillies should win here, but the Tigers have a good shot at keeping it close. Detroit is covering in 61% of my model's simulations.

ANALYSIS: Miami's offense has come alive over the last month, but I like Kansas City's opener-bulk man combo of Carlos Hernandez and Mike Mayers. They should be able to contain the red-hot Marlins bats while the K.C. lineup goes to work on Braxton Garrett, whose peripherals don't paint a completely rosy story. The Royals are covering in 67% of my model's simulations.

ANALYSIS: Hear me out here. Yes, Joey Wentz is bad. But Aaron Nola hasn't exactly been pitching well either. Philadelphia should win this game, but it's well within Detroit's capacity to keep things close. The Tigers are covering in 62% of my model's simulations.

ANALYSIS: I realize Gerrit Cole is on the mound, but he has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs, including four home runs, over 11 innings. He also has been more hittable on the road this season. Meanwhile the Dodgers hit four homers in the victory over the Yankees on Friday night. My model says L.A. wins 60% of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.