R.J.'s Picks (4 Live)
The Seahawks enter this game without Zach Charbonnet, a TD machine in 2025 who had six of the team's nine rushing scores from 1 or 2 yards out. Kenneth Walker had two such scores, and the other went to tight end AJ Barner, who is the rusher in the team's tush push formation. Barner has gotten positive yardage on 10 of his 11 carries (including playoffs), and with no Charbonnet, it's more likely Barner will get his name called near the goal line or in a key short-yardage situation. The juice makes the Over the underdog here, but I'd make it the favorite so I like the value we're getting.
The Seahawks offense didn't get tested much last week as Sam Darnold completed just 12 passes in a 35-point win. That shouldn't be the case in Rams-Seahawks, Part 3. The Seahawks' recent defensive dominance has led to depressed numbers for Smith-Njigba and dropped this line below where it should be. He reached 90+ yards in 13 of 15 games to open the season, seeing triple-digit lines during that stretch. The Rams allow 150.8 yards per game to WRs and Smith-Njigba should see the lion's share of that production en route to his first 90-yard game since the last Rams matchup. If the Seahawks defense doesn't shut down the league's top scoring offense completely, Smith-Njigba is going to get the volume needed to get over here.
The Patriots have seen two elite defenses in their run to the AFC title game and survived, and they get another one here. Maye threw interceptions in both games as well as in six of eight games prior to uncompetitive matchups with the Jets and Dolphins to end the season. Now he's up against the defense that generates the most pressure in the league. The Broncos picked Josh Allen off twice last week after the Bills QB threw an interception in just seven of his games this season, and Buffalo has better pass protection for its star QB. Maye could have a good performance here but all it takes is one mistake under pressure to cash this plus odds prop.
A suddenly dominant Patriots defense faces a backup quarterback, and I find myself backing the 'dog. I think the market rating for the Broncos moved too much when considering the talent level of both QBs and the system in which they play. The Patriots also played at home in both impressive wins and now match up with a much better offensive line in unfavorable conditions. Drake Maye certainly hasn't looked like an MVP in the playoffs and he's now facing the best pressure defense in the NFL. Home playoff 'dogs of 4+ are 11-0 ATS over the last 50 years, and I think they get another cover -- and potentially an outright win -- here.
The Patriots defense has run roughshod over a pair of offenses with major injury concerns the last two weeks, and they'll get another with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Playcaller Zak Kuhr is in his bag, completely outmaneuvering the Chargers and Texans, and Stidham faces an uphill battle to score points. Drake Maye's offense has struggled with turnovers against two top-tier defenses and gets another here, and the margin between the Broncos and second place in sacks was more than the gap between No. 2 and 9. Maybe another defensive score ruins this Under like it did last week in Texans-Pats, but I have to back it above the key number of 41.
The Bears are coming off a massive win in Ben Johnson's first year, but the defense did not cover itself in glory, allowing four different Packers receivers to score touchdowns. That's after the team allowed 20 receiving TDs to WRs in the regular season, tied for third worst in the league. Nacua is a target monster in the Rams offense, and he's scored in four straight games with eight total TDs in his last six weeks. I prefer playing him to Davante Adams in this matchup but both figure to have a good shot at scoring.
The Bears feel like they're playing with house money, but this team is wide open to win the title if it can beat the Rams. Injuries at left tackle and linebacker for Chicago are a problem, but Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a finger injury that seemed to affect his accuracy against the Panthers, and rolling out in extremely cold weather Sunday isn't going to help things. The Bears are the type of team I'd design to upset the Rams with a turnover-rich defense and an offense with diverse pass-game weapons. Home 'dogs of 4+ points are now 10-0 ATS in the playoffs over the last 50 years, so if this line closes at four, I want to be on Chicago.
Nico Collins is unlikely to play in this game as he remains in concussion protocol as of Thursday, and while Christian Kirk and the rushing attack helped cover his absence post-injury against the Chargers, the team only continued its run of 20-point games due to two defensive touchdowns. The Patriots may be one of their toughest defensive matchups of the season with Milton Williams, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane back in action, and Christian Gonzalez may be cleared from concussion protocol after practicing Wednesday. Defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr worked the Chargers and their poor O-line last week, and he could do the same here and keep C.J. Stroud hurried and panicking for a second straight week. Back the Pats defense.
Both these teams put together dominant wins led by their defenses in the wild card round, but considering the opposition I was more impressed by what the Patriots did. They now look to have a legitimate pass rush that I expect will make life difficult for C.J. Stroud, who may not have top wideout Nico Collins (concussion) for this game. Drake Maye wasn't as his best dealing with pressure last week, so Houston may be able to limit Patriots points, but I believe the matchup on the other side of the ball along with home-field advantage should make this line at least 3, and my ratings would put it even higher in the 5-point range.
The 49ers suffered a big loss last week with the George Kittle injury, and the player who stepped up was Juszczyk. The fullback caught all four of his targets for 49 yards, and it was his third straight game with multiple targets, which happened in 11 of 18 games this year, including both Seattle games. The Seahawks have the personnel to force Brock Purdy to throw short, and Juszczyk has a good chance of being his outlet if Christian McCaffrey is smothered. I like hi chances of hitting multiple receptions again this week, especially at this reduced price at FanDuel.
Sam Darnold is confident he'll be able to play tonight, but he also said he's never had an oblique injury before. The timing of the injury should keep him far below 100% if he plays, but I think there's a real chance we see Drew Lock in this game, if not starting then subbing in after Darnold is unable to continue. Even if Darnold is able to make it four quarters, he has struggled in big spots in the past two years and I could see Robert Saleh's team holding the Seahawks under 20 points and allowing the 49ers to cover or even win outright.