This is obviously the biggest game of the year for both teams, and big games are where Hollins shows up the most. Much has been made about the Patriots' easy schedule, but when they played the Buccaneers, Ravens and in the second game against the Bills, Hollins recorded his three performances with at least eight targets this year. He also had seven against a tough Browns defense. Hollins returned from the IL in the AFC Championship to catch two passes for 51 yards in a game where Drake Maye threw for just 86 yards total. Hollins has outperformed Stefon Diggs in several key games this year and could do so again here.
The Patriots have endured a monster run of defenses to get to the Super Bowl, and waiting for them is the league's No. 1 scoring defense. The last opponent to get to 300 yards against Seattle besides the Rams was the Cardinals in Week 10, and the Seahawks have allowed two total touchdowns in six games against non-Rams opponents since Week 12. Drake Maye had one game with a sub 60% completion rate heading into the playoffs and has been below that number in all three games. The Seahawks should excel against the Patriots' offensive line and continue to keep Maye uncomfortable, and Sam Darnold is playing well enough to not expect the Pats offense to get short fields. I love getting this above 20.
We know that Drake Maye is going to use his legs to try and pick up first downs when needed, but no one is really talking about the other QB in the matchup. Darnold has had 3+ rush attempts in six of his last seven games, and with the Patriots getting creative at sending pressure during the playoffs, I believe it's likely he'll be on the move a couple times in this game, and he'll certainly not hesitate to try and pick up a first down if he sees open field. We could also hit this by virtue of end-game kneeldowns if the Seahawks do what's expected and win this game. I like getting plus odds value on this prop.
I expect this to be a slow-starting game for both offenses as they feel out two elite defenses, so much so that one prop from my 60 picks article is on the first touchdown to be scored in the second quarter. In that type of environment, I don't see three TDs being scored by these teams in the first half, so I'm willing to take this total all the way down to 20.5 and get plus odds on the Under.
The Patriots aren't being given much of a chance in this game, but I see their defense as being good enough to limit Seattle's scoring and give Drake Maye a chance at the win. I expect scoring to be tough in the first half after the long lead-up to kickoff, with nerves at an all-time high in the first quarter. I believe there's only three points of difference between these teams on a neutral field, and while I wait to see the best number I can get on the Pats in the full game, I can't pass up the opportunity to grab the hook on the first-half line.
The sportsbooks have taken a ton of money on the Seahawks throughout the last two weeks, yet the line hasn't budged. Maybe they're confident in a Patriots cover at this number? Underdogs of 3.5 or more are 11-2 ATS in the Super Bowl over the last 25 years with more outright wins than losses, and the Patriots have a path to victory with how well the defense is playing plus the better quarterback and maybe better coach in the game (remember that Mike Vrabel knows the demands of a Super Bowl Sunday well while this is Mike Macdonald's first exposure to it). Feel free to try and wait for a 5 on gameday, but I'm perfectly fine with the 4.5 at -105 or better.
The Seahawks enter this game without Zach Charbonnet, a TD machine in 2025 who had six of the team's nine rushing scores from 1 or 2 yards out. Kenneth Walker had two such scores, and the other went to tight end AJ Barner, who is the rusher in the team's tush push formation. Barner has gotten positive yardage on 10 of his 11 carries (including playoffs), and with no Charbonnet, it's more likely Barner will get his name called near the goal line or in a key short-yardage situation. The juice makes the Over the underdog here, but I'd make it the favorite so I like the value we're getting.
The Seahawks offense didn't get tested much last week as Sam Darnold completed just 12 passes in a 35-point win. That shouldn't be the case in Rams-Seahawks, Part 3. The Seahawks' recent defensive dominance has led to depressed numbers for Smith-Njigba and dropped this line below where it should be. He reached 90+ yards in 13 of 15 games to open the season, seeing triple-digit lines during that stretch. The Rams allow 150.8 yards per game to WRs and Smith-Njigba should see the lion's share of that production en route to his first 90-yard game since the last Rams matchup. If the Seahawks defense doesn't shut down the league's top scoring offense completely, Smith-Njigba is going to get the volume needed to get over here.
The Patriots have seen two elite defenses in their run to the AFC title game and survived, and they get another one here. Maye threw interceptions in both games as well as in six of eight games prior to uncompetitive matchups with the Jets and Dolphins to end the season. Now he's up against the defense that generates the most pressure in the league. The Broncos picked Josh Allen off twice last week after the Bills QB threw an interception in just seven of his games this season, and Buffalo has better pass protection for its star QB. Maye could have a good performance here but all it takes is one mistake under pressure to cash this plus odds prop.
A suddenly dominant Patriots defense faces a backup quarterback, and I find myself backing the 'dog. I think the market rating for the Broncos moved too much when considering the talent level of both QBs and the system in which they play. The Patriots also played at home in both impressive wins and now match up with a much better offensive line in unfavorable conditions. Drake Maye certainly hasn't looked like an MVP in the playoffs and he's now facing the best pressure defense in the NFL. Home playoff 'dogs of 4+ are 11-0 ATS over the last 50 years, and I think they get another cover -- and potentially an outright win -- here.
The Patriots defense has run roughshod over a pair of offenses with major injury concerns the last two weeks, and they'll get another with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Playcaller Zak Kuhr is in his bag, completely outmaneuvering the Chargers and Texans, and Stidham faces an uphill battle to score points. Drake Maye's offense has struggled with turnovers against two top-tier defenses and gets another here, and the margin between the Broncos and second place in sacks was more than the gap between No. 2 and 9. Maybe another defensive score ruins this Under like it did last week in Texans-Pats, but I have to back it above the key number of 41.
The Bears are coming off a massive win in Ben Johnson's first year, but the defense did not cover itself in glory, allowing four different Packers receivers to score touchdowns. That's after the team allowed 20 receiving TDs to WRs in the regular season, tied for third worst in the league. Nacua is a target monster in the Rams offense, and he's scored in four straight games with eight total TDs in his last six weeks. I prefer playing him to Davante Adams in this matchup but both figure to have a good shot at scoring.
The Bears feel like they're playing with house money, but this team is wide open to win the title if it can beat the Rams. Injuries at left tackle and linebacker for Chicago are a problem, but Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a finger injury that seemed to affect his accuracy against the Panthers, and rolling out in extremely cold weather Sunday isn't going to help things. The Bears are the type of team I'd design to upset the Rams with a turnover-rich defense and an offense with diverse pass-game weapons. Home 'dogs of 4+ points are now 10-0 ATS in the playoffs over the last 50 years, so if this line closes at four, I want to be on Chicago.
Nico Collins is unlikely to play in this game as he remains in concussion protocol as of Thursday, and while Christian Kirk and the rushing attack helped cover his absence post-injury against the Chargers, the team only continued its run of 20-point games due to two defensive touchdowns. The Patriots may be one of their toughest defensive matchups of the season with Milton Williams, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane back in action, and Christian Gonzalez may be cleared from concussion protocol after practicing Wednesday. Defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr worked the Chargers and their poor O-line last week, and he could do the same here and keep C.J. Stroud hurried and panicking for a second straight week. Back the Pats defense.
Both these teams put together dominant wins led by their defenses in the wild card round, but considering the opposition I was more impressed by what the Patriots did. They now look to have a legitimate pass rush that I expect will make life difficult for C.J. Stroud, who may not have top wideout Nico Collins (concussion) for this game. Drake Maye wasn't as his best dealing with pressure last week, so Houston may be able to limit Patriots points, but I believe the matchup on the other side of the ball along with home-field advantage should make this line at least 3, and my ratings would put it even higher in the 5-point range.