I'm not sure I understand this line in the slightest ...

The Broncos offense followed a familiar pattern on Sunday ...

This is a great time to fade one of these teams ...

These two teams are 2-1, a surprise to many, including myself ...

Both of these teams are coming off ugly games ...

Caleb Williams seems unlikely to play after being deemed week-to-week, and Tyson Bagent could also be sidelined. I love the matchup for this Eagles defense against Bagent or Case Keenum. The final score against the Titans was tighter than it might have been thanks to a long interception return setting up a Tennessee touchdown and taking points from Philadelphia, and with Chicago's questionable defense, we could see a final score around 31-13 like we might have had without that one bad play. I have this line at 4.5 so I'm going to grab the 3 in case it moves.

The Bears go into this game with Case Keenum at QB, and that means we should see a focus on running the ball. If it works, the Bears will chew up clock and limit the number of Eagles possessions. If it doesn't, the Eagles should maintain a lead throughout. Either scenario means limiting the number of pass attempts Hurts should receive as the game goes along. Last year, Hurts threw more than 28 passes in a win just once, topping out at 30 and averaging 24.5 attempts in those games. Last week's high-attempt game should be an outlier, and I like Hurts to revert to form tonight.

The Rams bounced back nicely from their quick trip to Australia last week, dominating the Giants without their best weapon. Puka Nacua is not expected back this week, and I expect this elite Denver defense will do a much better job of limiting Davante Adams and forcing the Rams to find another way to win. The Broncos offense took massive strides in Week 2 despite the difficult matchup, and though I don't quite trust them fully get, I'll take them to learn those lessons and continue pushing the ball downfield in this matchup. With no Nacua, I wouldn't make this more than a pick 'em.

The 49ers have had a great two weeks to start the season, destroying the Rams and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks. While the latter isn't impressive, the former also had travel-related quirks that helped the 49ers. We get a chance to fade their inflated rating here, in a week when they lost their one effective player on the defensive front, Nick Bosa. That should give Jacoby Brissett the ability to move the ball and put up points in this matchup, potentially with a backdoor cover if needed.

Kyler Murray is expected to return for the Vikings in this game, but QBs in their first game after sitting with a concussion tend to struggle. The game should be on his shoulders with Aaron Jones up against this strong run defense, and I think the Bucs defense comes out on top in the matchup. New Bucs OC Zac Robinson faced Brian Flores and the Vikes in Week 2 last year with the Falcons and had his team in scoring range seven times, earning five FGs and one TD, plus a lost fumble. With a strong O-line to protect Baker Mayfield against the rush, I can see the Bucs winning this game more often than not.

The Chargers are an absolute mess right now, and staring at a brutal schedule that could leave them 0-9 in the blink of an eye. With two straight no-shows at home against what are expected to be two of the weaker teams in the league, I have no confidence keeping this one close on the road against what has looked like one of the best teams in the league. The scoring probably starts at 30 for Buffalo, and the Chargers haven't shown they can score 20, so I expect this line to rise in the market as people continue to sour on Jim Harbaugh's squad.

The Browns offense came to life against the Buccaneers last week, potentially setting Deshaun Watson up to remain the starter another week. I like their potential to steal another win here at home against what I still think is a below-average Panthers team that has gotten to play two terrible defenses thus far. Both Falcons QBs threw interceptions and lost fumbles last week, and if the Browns can just avoid that level of ineptitude against Carolina, their defense should keep this to a close game they can win, or at least lose by a field goal or less.

The Jets came close to starting the season 2-0, but poor coaching helped snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on Sunday. The defense still held the Packers to just 199 yards, and while they probably aren't going to suppress the Lions offense in this matchup, they look at least decent enough where the Lions could score 30 instead of 40. The key here is a decimated Lions defense that can't stop passing attacks on the back end, and a Jets offensive line capable of holding their own against Detroit's defensive front. Until the Lions get healthy, they'll be a good team to attack when laying big numbers, hoping we can at least get backdoor covers.

The Lions defense suffered another setback with Avonte Maddox's injury, and they might be resigned to giving up 30+ points to competent offenses until reinforcements arrive. The Jets have the talent up front to slow down Detroit's pass rush and exploit the issues on the back end with Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and the rest of the passing game. If you can't get the Jets at +7, I like taking their team total Over even if you have to play the 20.5.

The Lions are dealing with several absences in the secondary, and I expect the Jets passing game to have a great day as a result. Smith nearly got over this total in Week 1 in a game the Jets controlled from the start, leading to just 24 pass attempts. I'd be shocked if he doesn't have to throw at least 30 times in this game, and he should have success downfield with the Lions' issues. I was expecting a line closer to the 247 yards Smith put up last week, so I'm happy to go over anything up to 229.5.