R.J.'s Picks (5 Live)
The Cowboys are coming off a bye rested and ready to debut their two trade acquisitions ...
It's unclear at this point whether C.J. Stroud will be able to play here ...
Last week the Chiefs came off a bye facing a must-win scenario to stay alive in the division race ...
The Packers suffered a number of injuries Sunday and may not have Josh Jacobs ...
The Falcons' season for all intents and purposes ended on Sunday with an OT loss to the Panthers ...
R.J.'s Past Picks
The Eagles gutted out a tough win in Green Bay on Monday, but it was not an impressive showing by their offense, which managed eight or fewer yards in six of 10 offensive series. The defense was very much bend but don't break, with the Packers scoring once on six drives into Philly territory. This is a much tougher opponent, especially with Dan Campbell taking over playcalling duties on offense. The Lions also have a D-line capable of neutralizing Philly's strength up front and limiting scoring once again. I expect the Lions to win this game outright.
The Chiefs are coming off a bye with the taste of a loss to the Bills in their mouths, and I expect a focused performance on both sides of the ball. That's bad news for a Denver offense that has looked terrible for the majority of the last five weeks, managing less than 275 yards against the Jets, Texans and Raiders while getting shut out by the Giants for three quarters. The Chiefs have only allowed three of their nine opponents to top 20 points, including holding Philly to 20 and Detroit to 17. I expect them to dictate how this game goes, and it'll be up to Denver's defense to keep them in it for 60 minutes.
The Broncos are on a seven-game winning streak, but their offense has looked horrendous for the better part of four of the last five weeks. A negative-2 yard FG drive was what broke a 7-7 tie at home against a bad Raiders defense on short rest after a long OT game, a spot where Denver should've racked up points. There's no confidence in Bo Nix to go downfield, and I don't know how they score points against a Chiefs team that has had to sit with a loss to Buffalo for two weeks. Andy Reid knows he has to have this game to get back in the divisional race, and I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into an easy win if Nix doesn't progress.
A massive matchup with NFC playoff implications as the upstart Seahawks battle the Rams' offensive machine, but I like getting three points with Seattle. The Rams defense can shut down bad offenses but has looked mediocre in both 49ers games, and I wonder how effective they'll be at slowing down Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks defense faces a similar challenge, but since I have these teams with the same rating and the Rams certainly don't get three points for home field, I feel like I have to grab the full field goal while it's available, especially knowing any negative Davante Adams injury news will have Seahawks backers moving quickly.
The 49ers have seen their favored status grow with the return of Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall, but no reinforcements are coming for a defense that has struggled since losing multiple stars. Even With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined, I expect Brissett to have success in the passing as he has since taking over the starting role with four straight games over 250 pass yards while facing Seattle, Green Bay and Indy. This shouldn't be as tough a matchup as any of those games, and the bump for the 49ers offense means he's more likely to be in a chase scenario and stacking up yards as well. I'd consider a 250+ alt as well.
Both of these teams are dealing with key defensive injuries, but I'm willing to back the Cardinals because I believe they should be favored if they aren't missing too many guys. That's because the Arizona offense has been good with Jacoby Brissett at QB, scoring 22+ in all four of his starts despite facing the Colts, Packers and Seahawks in that stretch. The 49ers defense has given up 23+ in six of the last seven games and couldn't stop a beat-up Houston offense a few weeks ago. Last week was the first time all year the Cardinals lost by more than four points, and the 49ers haven't been playing well enough to be considered among their toughest opponents, especially with the game in Arizona.
This is a rematch of a few weeks back when the Bengals won at home as 5.5-point underdogs. That's the same line despite the flip in home field, which should have me running to the Steelers. So what gives? I don't think their defense is very good, and I can't see them slowing down the Bengals' passing attack with Darius Slay and Alex Singleton ruled out, even if the weather isn't ideal with potentially impactful winds. I would expect those conditions to affect Aaron Rodgers more than Joe Flacco, and I like the latter's chance of getting a backdoor cover if needed in the fourth quarter considering how easy they went up and down the field in the first meeting.
Jaxson Dart has been a breath of fresh air for the Giants offense, but he seems unlikely to play after suffering another concussion on Sunday. Perhaps interim coach Mike Kafka has some tricks up his sleeve, but it's hard to see this offense having success with backups playing key roles at the skill positions, even if the team goes with Jameis Winston over Russell Wilson. The Packers defense has had two great games in a row, including holding the Eagles to 10 points on Monday, and they've allowed more than 300 yards twice all year. The Giants were held under 10 points twice in Wilson's three starts, and while I'd prefer to have him in there for this prop, I think Winston struggles as well.
The Bears are 6-1 in their last seven games, but several were by razor-thin margins, including needing two TDs in the final four minutes to beat the Giants at home. The Chicago defense is far from good, and that gives J.J. McCarthy a chance to finally get in rhythm after two surprisingly solid games against good defenses. The Vikings averaged 6 yards per play against Baltimore despite Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison only catching seven of 23 targets, and they should bounce back in this matchup. The Vikings defense played solid despite the final score last week, and I expect the pass rush to give Caleb Williams major issues. By ratings this line should be at least 3, but I'd lay up to 4.
The Jaguars just scored 29 points against a great Texans defense on the road, but that result is misleading. They had a punt return TD and a short TD drive after a turnover to boost their total, which wasn't supported by their 3.9 yards per play and 213 total yards on offense. The Chargers have been one of the best defenses in the league recently, allowing just two offensive TDs over the last three weeks. This shouldn't be a difficult matchup for Jesse Minter's defense.

