Larry's Picks (1 Live)
UAB has beaten Temple three straight times. The Blazers lead the American Conference in assist-to-turnover ratio. Even though the Blazers are reeling with injury woes, they've played their best on the road, winning all six of their American Conference road games. The Owls have averaged 64 points in losing their last two games. Coach Andy Kennedy called out his team for missing layups following UAB's one-point home loss to Tulane on Sunday, and I bet the Blazers to respond here.
The first Navy-Lehigh. matchup went to double overtime. I like the Midshipmen to control the rematch at home, as they aim for their 10th straight win and the outright Patriot League title. Navy has covered eight straight and comes off a signature win at Colgate. In conference play, Navy allows a league-low 64.1 points per game and holds opponents to league lows of 40.6 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from deep. Another edge is that Navy leads the conference in rebounding margin, while the Mountain Hawks rank last.
The Hoyas won 77-64 at Butler on Jan. 31, part of the Bulldogs' current six-game losing streak. Butler is seriously depleted in the backcourt, with leading scorer Finley Bizjack (wrist) likely to sit out again. But Georgetown typically doesn't fare well in the favorite role (2-7 ATS this season). And the Hoyas are coming off a monumental effort at UConn, where they lost 79-75 despite shooting 43 percent from deep. Back Butler, which has been very competitive in three of its last four, to keep this close.
Lafayette won the first meeting 74-55 on Jan. 17, but the Leopards come in having lost three of four. They are only one game ahead of the Crusaders in the Patriot League. They're 3-11 away from home and shouldn't be road favorites here. Holy Cross has played well in its last two home games, beating Lehigh by nine and losing by four to Colgate. Crusaders freshman forward Aiden Disu has emerged lately, scoring 20-plus in three straight. He has grabbed 47 rebounds over the past five games. Grab the points.
Minnesota is 1-7 away from home and won't have 6-8 junior Jaylen Crocker-Johnson again. He averages 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds. Without him, the Gophers just lost by 12 at Washington. This should be a big game for Ducks center Nate Bittle. The 7-foot senior returned from injury three games ago and is coming off a 22-point, 7-rebound, 5-assist, 2-block performance in an 11-point win over Penn State. Lay the small number.
San Jose State has lost eight in a row, including an 87-54 thrashing in Reno against these same Wolf Pack. However, three of the Spartans' last four defeats have come by 10 or fewer points. In the first meeting on Jan. 20, San Jose State junior guard Colby Garland did not play. He has scored 21-plus points in four straight games, going 8 of 14 from deep, and averages 18.8 points and 4.2 assists this season. Nevada wins, but this is too many points.
Fresno State could be missing leading scorer Jake Heidbreder (17.5 ppg), who missed the previous game due to back spasms. Either way, I like the Bulldogs to rely on their defense and hang around. Fresno State holds opponents to 43.7 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. Look for the Cowboys to win, but to fall to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
The undefeated RedHawks have scored 90 in back-to-back games and should put up another big number here. While the market clearly expects Miami to stumble at some point soon, this spread is a little low. UMass lost the first meeting 86-84 despite shooting 51 percent overall and 43 percent from deep. The Minutemen foul too much and put opponents on the free-throw line at the MAC's highest rate. That could prove decisive down the stretch, as the RedHawks stay perfect.
The Lumberjacks won the first meeting 69-60, but it wasn't easy. Texas A&M Corpus Christi led by nine at halftime. Ultimately, the difference was Stephen F. Austin shooting 50 percent from deep compared to 25 percent for the Islanders. SFA enters on an 11-game win streak, but many of those victories were close. The Islanders, who played SMU, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Xavier in non-conference play, are coming off a convincing win over Lamar in which they had 15 assists and only seven turnovers. They should keep this close throughout.
Alabama State is far from a good team, but Mississippi Valley State is arguably the nation's worst. The Hornets won the first meeting by 20 and have covered three straight against the Delta Devils, winning by 20, 23 and 29. Alabama State is coming off an 18-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is tied for second in the SWAC. Lay the points.
Dayton enters on an 0-6 ATS skid and shouldn’t be laying this many points. While Davidson is 0-8 at Daytona since joining the Atlantic 10, these Wildcats match up well. They turn it over only 10.5 times per game, which is critical versus the Flyers’ aggressive, steal-happy defense. Look for a game that goes down to the wire and grab the points.
The Phoenix have won and covered three straight, while the Panthers have lost four of five and 11 of 14. Home court matters, but I still like senior guard Justin Allen and Green Bay getting a couple points. He’s coming off a 34-point outburst and had 21 in the first meeting, a three-point Phoenix win.
The Aztecs have won nine straight home games overall, and they're 13-0 all-time versus Nevada at Viejas Arena. Defensive anchor Magoon Gwath is expected to return from injury for San Diego State. The Wolf Pack's Corey Camper Jr. (17.7 ppg) was held to eight points in the first meeting, a 73-68 SDSU win in Reno. San Diego State's defense should be the difference Saturday. Back the Aztecs to cover for the fourth straight time in this series.
Georgia's only win in its last five games came against lowly LSU. The Sooners are better than their record and are fully rested after knocking off Vanderbilt 92-91 in Nashville last Saturday. Bulldogs guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.1 ppg) missed the loss to Florida and continues to deal with shoulder soreness. He is not certain to return Saturday.