Larry's Picks (1 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Coby White has registered at least four assists in five straight games, and Thursday's matchup sets up well. We have two fast-paced teams, the highest total of the night at 234, and Sacramento gives up the 10th-most assists (27.0 per game). White is averaging 35.9 minutes this month. I know it's juicy, but I bet White to continue if not increase his recent assist production.
Utah State lost three of its last five games, while UCLA split its final eight. The Bruins are stout defensively, but I like the Aggies and their efficient offense (48.4 percent shooting, 17th nationally) to keep this close. Utah State starts four seniors including Ian Martinez, who scored 21 points in the Aggies' NCAA Tournament win over TCU last year. In that matchup, Utah State was a 3.5-point underdog despite being the No. 8 seed. This year's Aggies went 11-5 in road and neutral-site games, including winning at Saint Mary's.
Missouri has lost five of seven, giving up 91-plus points in each of those losses. The Tigers rank 71st in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Lately they've been prone to fouling. Drake runs a patient offense full of screens and ranks 11th in free throws per field goal attempt. The Bulldogs also lead the nation in steal rate at 14.6 percent. The Tigers will be doubling Bennett Stirtz (19.1 ppg, 5.7 apg) to get the ball out of his hands, but I have confidence in his teammates like Mitch Mascari (41 percent on 3-pointers). Mizzou's Mark Mitchell is good to go after hurting his knee in the SEC Tournament, but I still like the Bulldogs to keep it close.
The Aggies have lost five of seven and drew a tough matchup against Ivy League champion Yale. The Bulldogs shoot 38.5 percent from beyond the arc (ninth nationally) and return key players from the team that upset Auburn in this round last season, also as a No. 13 seed. Senior John Poulakidas (19.2 ppg) had 28 points in that 78-76 win over Auburn. Texas A&M is a tremendous rebounding team but the Aggies can struggle to score if Wade Taylor IV isn't shooting well. In the team's recent four-game skid, Taylor went 14 of 50 from the field.
Mike White is 4-0 in NCAA Tournament opening-round games, and he's got a Georgia team that's beaten Florida, St. John's (neutral site) and Kentucky. Sophomore Silas Demary Jr. averaged 19.4 points over the final eight games, giving Georgia a terrific 1-2 punch with freshman sensation and projected lottery pick Asa Newell. Tough-minded and battle-tested from the SEC schedule, the Bulldogs will make things challenging for high-flying Gonzaga and potentially pull the upset.
San Francisco went 16-1 on its home floor and owns a win over Saint Mary's. But one of the Dons' two first-team All-WCC performers, senior guard Marcus Williams, is not expected to play in this NIT opener. Williams (15.1 ppg, 4.3 apg, 41.4 percent on 3-pointers) is being held out due to an eligibility issue. He missed the WCC Tournament as well. The Wolverines allowed 42 points in the paint in their 89-82 WAC Tournament final loss to Grand Canyon. San Francisco is a more guard-oriented attack, so I bet the Wolverines to keep this close. They're excited to be in the NIT so motivation won't be an issue.
LeBron James remains out with a groin injury. The Nuggets give up the most assists in the NBA (29.2 per game). Over the past three games, they've yielded an average of 30. When James is out, Austin Reaves steps up his playmaking, even with Luka Doncic on the floor. The Lakers have played five games since James went down, and Reaves has dished out 38 assists (7.6 per game). Last Friday in Denver, Reaves had 13 assists in 39 minutes.
Stanford acquitted itself well in the ACC Tournament, eliminating Cal before losing to Louisville on a buzzer-beater. Led by 7-1 senior Maxime Raynaud (20.1 ppg, 10.6 rpg), the Cardinal are 16-2 at home. They're hosting a Cal State Northridge team that surprised many but could be hampered Tuesday. Matadors leading scorer Marcus Adams Jr., a BYU transfer who originally committed to Kansas, rolled his ankle in the first half of Thursday's Big West Tournament loss to UCSB. He tried to play through the injury ibut was unable to. The 6-8 sophomore averages 16.1 points and 4.9 rebounds and shoots 52.6 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from deep. Adams might not be as effective as usual, assuming he plays, giving Stanford a big edge.
The Cowboys went 12-3 at home, but don't expect a raucous atmosphere in Stillwater, Okla., for this NIT opener as it comes during spring break. (And it's the NIT). The Shockers got a surprise invitation after scattering for their break following an 83-80 AAC Tournament loss to Memphis on Saturday. They might not have time to practice, but every player responded enthusiastically when asked about the chance to keep playing. Senior guard Bijan Cortes, who grew up about an hour away from Oklahoma State's campus, is definitely fired up after pouring in 39 points with 12 assists in two AAC tourney games. The Shockers closed on a 9-3 ATS run and I like them to keep this close, if not win outright.
The Billikens have three legit scoring options who can keep this close. They also have a coach who took his team to the NIT championship game last year. I grabbed the points with a talented St. Louis team that won’t mind the Red Wolves’ fast pace.
Ja Morant is out, so Desmond Bane's usage should spike again versus Sacramento. It's a dream matchup, too, as the Kings rank 19th in defensive rating and allow an NBA-high 38.3 percent on 3-pointers. We have a game total of 237 with a fast pace expected. Look for Bane to play around 35 minutes and clear this prop total.
With Deandre Ayton (quad strain) still out, Donovan Clingan has started 13 straight games. He has played 34 and 32 minutes in his last two contests, and has cleared this prop total in four straight. The Raptors give up the sixth-most rebounds and second-most assists to opposing centers. In the 14 games in which Clingan played at least 22 minutes, he went Over this number 12 times.
The Tigers swept the regular-season series but they haven't exactly been dominant in this tournament, and they won't have senior guard Tyrese Hunter. Yaxel Lendeborg continues to shoot up NBA Draft boards, and he's eager to make amends for a pair of subpar performances versus Memphis. Back Andy Kennedy's team to at least take this to the wire, if not win outright.
Grand Canyon is clearly the more talented team, but Utah Valley has uncommon chemistry and a legit defense. In conference play, the Wolverines have allowed a league-low 40.1 percent shooting. They're comparable to Grand Canyon in rebounding margin. These teams split in the regular season, each winning at home. I wouldn't play this at less than 5 (there were 5.5s available for a little while). Utah Valley has won 10 straight and No. 11 would send it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time. Even if they don't make history, I like the Wolverines to claw and scratch and keep this tight.