Larry's Picks (11 Live)
The Chargers are coming off a heartbreaking loss in K.C. ...
Larry's Past Picks
Rams strong safety Quentin Lake only had three tackles in the shootout win over Buffalo, but this is a great matchup. The 49ers' offense generates the third-most tackles for opposing safeties and second-highest tackle rate for opposing safeties. Lake never comes off the field, and he had 10 tackles in the first meeting with San Francisco.
Deebo Samuel is frustrated at his lack of involvement with the offense. Both Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy indicated they want to get him the ball more, and George Kittle predicted Samuel will have a huge game Thursday. I'm not sure that's true, but I do like Samuel to make at least four grabs in this potential shootout. A couple of those could be quick screens. Samuel has exploded in his last four Thursday games, racking up 25 catches for 469 yards with three touchdowns. In his last seven meaningful games against LA (excluding Week 18 last season when he played sparingly), Samuel caught at least four passes in each and 42 overall (6 per game). He missed the Week 3 matchup this season.
Rams tight end Colby Parkinson has caught one pass in each of the past four games, clearing this prop total each time. That's not too encouraging, but this matchup is. In the first meeting with San Fran, he caught three of five targets for 21 yards. With the Niners rediscovering their pass rush, and San Fran's top corners healthy again, I like Parkinson to make 1-2 grabs and clear this number.
Jauan Jennings has a target share over 30 percent since Brandon Aiyuk went down. He torched the Rams for 175 receiving yards in Week 3. In addition, Rams starting cornerback Cobie Durant (chest) is out. The Rams' elite pressure rate has declined the past two weeks, and for the season they rank 29th in explosive pass plays allowed.