Larry's Picks (8 Live)
The Titans got embarrassed last week at Washington. ...
Larry's Past Picks
Josh Jacobs was listed with a calf injury this week, but reports indicate he'll be full-go for Thursday night. He had 108 rushing-receiving yards in the first matchup. He has received 22-plus touches in three straight games, all Packers wins. Now he's facing a Lions' front seven that's been decimated by injury. This number will keep rising.
Jameson Williams loves playing at Ford Field. In home games, he produced 121, 79, 80 and 124 receiving yards before the Thanksgiving game vs. Chicago. In that contest, he was benched in the fourth quarter after drawing a costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. (He finished with five catches on seven targets for 28 yards). Unsolicited, Williams got up in front of the team afterward and apologized. Coach Dan Campbell says "it's all good" after the growth Williams showed. The Bears' elite corners were a tough matchup. Green Bay doesn't have Jaire Alexander and will be vulnerable to Williams' big-play ability.
Sam LaPorta is healthy and has drawn six targets in three consecutive games. The yardage hasn't been there the past two weeks, but this is a great matchup against a Packers' defense that's been getting shredded by tight ends. Look for LaPorta to rack up at least 40 receiving yards.
Initially I was leaning toward the Lions because of how much this line has moved from the lookahead. But Detroit is extremely banged-up in its front seven -- the full extent will become clear with Wednesday's game designations -- and Green Bay is uniquely suited to take advantage behind its power run game. In the second half of the Thanksgiving game, the depleted Lions' defense had no answer for Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Jordan Love and his receiviers are on another level. Look for an entertaining shootout that goes to the wire and grab the points.
Browns strong safety Grant Delpit has recorded seven-plus combined tackles in four straight games, and playing Denver is a great matchup for safeties. In addition, fellow starting safety Juan Thornhill is out. Delpit had 10 tackles in the Week 12 win over Pittsburgh and nine the week before at New Orleans. He also missed five tackles in those two games combined, so the opportunities should be there.
In their last three games against the Raiders, Falcons and Chiefs, the Broncos have allowed 3.1 yards per carry. Denver is favored by nearly a touchdown on Monday Night Football, as well, so the game script might not allow for Nick Chubb to get huge volume. Opponents are running the ball 39.8 percent of the time vs. Denver, the NFL's sixth-lowest rate. That rate has plunged to 28.7 percent over the past three games. Chubb got 20 carries in the snow game against Pittsburgh but that was an outlier due to the conditions and the Browns playing from ahead.
Courtland Sutton has been targeted 48 times the past five games, drawing at least eight targets and catching at least six passes in each. That's why I'm paying the steep price to go Over 4.5 receptions. He has a tremendous matchup Monday. The Browns play a ton of man coverage, and Sutton owns a 27 percent target share vs. man. Even if Josh Reynolds returns, Sutton should still lead the Broncos in targets.