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Tom Fornelli
Tom Fornelli
#TrustTheProcess
A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is perhaps best known for his college football expertise. He demonstrated it again in the 2021 season, going 69-52-2 (57 percent) while returning $1,255 to $100 players. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine. For Tom Fornelli media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Indiana 53 @ Saint Mary's 82 | 03/17 | 11:30 PM UTC

Indiana +2.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: This is the kind of game Indiana lives for. St. Mary's is a strong team, but it moves slowly and prefers to play half-court basketball. That plays right into the Hoosiers hands, because they are not efficient offensively, and prefer to choke the life out of games as well. The Hoosiers had the most efficient defense in the Big Ten this season, but while they sometimes get into trouble with fouls and send teams to the line too often, St. Mary's rarely gets to the line. I think the Gaels win more often than not, but neither one of these teams is likely to pull too far away from the other, so I'm taking the points.

Creighton 72 @ San Diego St 69 | 03/17 | 11:27 PM UTC

Creighton +2.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: There are 68 teams that were chosen for the tournament, and of those 68, the offensive efficiencies of Creighton and San Diego State rank 58th and 63rd respectively. Do not expect many points in this one. Instead, expect a slow, ugly, creeping death of a basketball game in which neither team will be able to pull away from the other, and is likely to end with Creighton's size being a little too much for the Aztecs. Plus, Creighton's the better free-throw shooting team, and in spots like this, that can make all the difference.

+90 2-1-1 IN LAST 4 CREIGH ATS PICKS

N. Mex. St. 70 @ Connecticut 63 | 03/17 | 11:00 PM UTC

UNDER 132

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Teddy Allen is a dangerous scorer for New Mexico State, but UConn is strong enough defensively to try and take him out of the game and force the rest of the Aggies to beat it. I don't think the Aggies can. I'm taking the under because NMSU should struggle to score points, and I'd rather not have to rely on the Huskies offense to cover.

San Fran. 87 @ Murray St. 92 | 03/18 | 2:14 AM UTC

San Fran. +2

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Murray State is a fun team to watch, but it dominated a bad conference in which it was the biggest bad guy on the block. San Francisco is bigger, better, and has played a much more difficult schedule. I don't think Murray State will quite know how to handle a team that has this much of a size advantage against it.

Richmond 67 @ Iowa 63 | 03/17 | 7:10 PM UTC

UNDER 150.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Iowa's defensive numbers for the entire season are not great, but the Hawkeyes have been much better on that end of the court for the last month, and this total hasn't quite caught onto that yet. Also, Richmond is one of the weaker teams in this tournament and it doesn't do anything particularly well other than not turn the ball over. Don't be surprised if Iowa builds a big lead and then takes its foot off the gas in the second half.