Tom Fornelli

#TrustTheProcess

A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is a consistent winner when it comes to ATS and over-under picks. He's a wallet-fattening 216-179 in his popular "Six Pack" college football column the past four years. And he's spreading his wings on SportsLine, demonstrating his expertise in every single sport. In the 2018-19 NBA season, Fornelli went 86-67, returning $1,229 to $100 players. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine. For Tom Fornelli media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +216

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Tom's
Past Picks

L.A. Dodgers +106 LAD +106

L.A. Dodgers 8 @ Atlanta 3
8/16
LAD 8 @ ATL 3
8/16
WIN
Fri 8/16

It's not often you get the Dodgers as underdogs, and I like them in this matchup. Mike Soroka has an ERA of 2.32 on the season, but his xFIP is a run-and-a-half higher at 3.84. Also, Soroka doesn't strike many hitters out. His K rate is 13 percent below league average, and while he does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground, this Dodgers offense doesn't strike me as the one you want to "pitch-to-contact" against.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +216

8-4 IN LAST 12 LAD ML PICKS | +518

L.A. Angels -126 LAA -126

Pittsburgh 4 @ L.A. Angels 7
8/15
PIT 4 @ LAA 7
8/15
WIN
Wed 8/14

I still believe that a good pitcher resides inside Chris Archer. The problem is that he pitches for an organization who found success pitching a certain way a couple of years ago, and seems unwilling to change its approach despite changes in the game since then. And Archer is suffering for it. Now, some of that is on him. He still walks way too many hitters, and he's facing a team here that strikes out less often than any other team in baseball. I think he's going to give up two long balls tonight at a minimum. Take the Halos at home.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +216

2-1 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS | +106

5-4 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +53

N.Y. Mets +132 NYM +132

N.Y. Mets 4 @ Atlanta 6
8/14
NYM 4 @ ATL 6
8/14
LOSS
Wed 8/14

The Mets have finally started to lose again, dropping their last two, but I like this matchup for them at this price. Dallas Keuchel is starting for the Braves, and he's been pretty ordinary since joining their rotation. His ERA is at 4.83, and his strikeout rate is 22 percent below league average for MLB starters. Also, while he's still elite at getting batters to hit the ball on the ground, he's proven to be homer prone as well. So when he is giving up fly balls, he's giving up hard-hit ones. Plus, the Braves bullpen has been a tire fire of late. It has an ERA of 6.99 over the last 30 days, which is the worst in MLB in that period.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +216

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYM ML PICKS | +165

UNDER 8 UNDER 8

Tampa Bay 10 @ San Diego 4
8/13
TB 10 @ SD 4
8/13
LOSS
Mon 8/12

Night games in San Diego tend to be lower-scoring affairs as is, and I like this matchup to suppress runs on Monday night. Joey Lucchesi has been terrific at home, posting a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts. The Rays have also been better against righties than lefties like Lucchesi. As for the other end of this matchup, Diego Castillo will open for the Rays, and it isn't clear who will follow him. Considering that Ryan Yarbrough went 8 2/3 innings for the Rays on Sunday, I wouldn't be shocked if Tampa throws the whole bullpen at San Diego in this one.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS | +203

Cleveland +104 CLE +104

Boston 5 @ Cleveland 6
8/12
BOS 5 @ CLE 6
8/12
WIN
Mon 8/12

I'm just riding the wave, man. On June 14 the Indians were 11 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central, and after taking three of four from the Twins this weekend, they're now tied for the division lead. Cleveland is 26-9 since the start of July, and is a home underdog against a Boston team that's lost seven of its last 10, is out of the AL East race, and now finds itself 7 1/2 out of the wild card. The Red Sox aren't very good this year, and there's no reason for them to be favored on the road against one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.

4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +216

6-4 IN LAST 10 BOS ML PICKS | +206

2-1 IN LAST 3 CLE ML PICKS | +59

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