Past Picks
If you want to back Aston Villa at home given their incredible record there, I totally understand. But this doesn’t feel like the same Villa side we’ve seen in recent years. They’re missing key pieces through the middle of the pitch, in defense and with Emi Martínez in net. Villa have lacked their usual identity and defensive backbone, and I think Arsenal can take advantage. They should be able to suffocate Villa with possession, pick them apart and make this a difficult 90 minutes for the home side. I like Arsenal -1 because it gives us some protection. If they win by one, we get our money back. If they win by two or more, we cash.
I know we're only a single match into the season, but I'm going to go ahead and start slamming these overs already. Chelsea's front three of Palmer, Rodgers and Pedro are going to be DISGUSTING this season and are going to be a problem. At the same time, their defense and GK are not going to keep many clean sheets. Go ahead and add BTTS to this if you want better odds but blind betting Chelsea overs will be a trend this season.
Chelsea and Brighton were two of the highest BTTS in the Premier League last season. Brighton saw BTTS hit in 55% of its matches, while Chelsea was at 63%. Chelsea also kept just five clean sheets in 19 home matches, and Brighton had the same number away from home. Chelsea’s new-look attack has plenty of firepower, and I think the Blues score at least twice. Chelsea over 1.5 team goals at -140 is playable, but I have a hard time trusting this defense to keep Brighton out of the back of the net. BTTS and over 2.5 is fantastic, but I’m keeping it simple with over 2.5 goals. The price is a little juiced, so I’m reducing my stake.
Excited to see the Premier League back -- did well on that last season. Think I prefer Euro soccer now to college basketball, which is dumbfounding. Two years ago Sevy needs to slap current Sevy. Yes I am talking in first person to make a point. Spurs looked wretched in their EPL opener but then terrific in trouncing some team I never heard of that sounds like a pack of smokes in the Carabao Cup. I'm not sure I expect this to win, honestly, but if I get a reasonable DNB price (like a cupcake covered in cherries with a shot of Jager love it so much) on a home team I'm probably taking it and just let the cards fall where they may.
Some of our other books are already at the -225 range for this Saturday Premier League match so I'll grab it now. It's the home opener for Bournemouth, which pushed Man City to the limit in the season opener away. The Cherries haven't lost their home opener (4W, 4D) since 2017. They own more wins over Everton all-time with nine than any other EPL foe. The Toffees, meanwhile, are winless in eight at Bournemouth (two draws) and have dropped their first EPL road game each of the past four seasons -- blanked in three.
This could be a tense clash between two newly promoted Premier League teams. Both games between Coventry and Hull finished 0-0 in the Championship last season, and under 2.5 goals has paid off in their last three meetings. Coventry lost 3-0 to Arsenal in their opener, but they should be stronger against Hull. The Tigers are surging with momentum after picking up a shock 2-0 victory over Man Utd in front of their home fans last weekend, but they’re on the road for this game. Both teams will be desperate to avoid defeat against a relegation rival at this early stage in the season, so a low-scoring draw looks like a distinct possibility.
I haven’t been impressed with Nottingham Forest at all. I’m a big fan of Oliver Glasner, but this team needs to figure things out quickly. I’m not convinced his style fits the current squad, especially with Elliot Anderson gone. Forest desperately needs more control in midfield. You can criticize Liverpool’s opening performance, but fighting back to earn a draw at Newcastle impressed me. Saint James’ Park is one of the tougher places to get a result, and Andoni Iraola continues to prove he’s one of the better managers in the league. I like Liverpool on the handicap here. If they win, we cash. If they only win by one, we get our money back. I’ll gladly take that protection.
People are scared to bet on Manchester City right now, and I understand that. They're going through a bit of a rebuild this season and are without multiple key figures like Rodri, and their manager Pep. While this team does need to find their identity, this is still a Haaland led team taking on an abysmal Crystal Palace. It might not be their usual 4-0 kind of stomping, but City are more than good enough to pick up three points and a couple goals along the way.
There are still some good moneyline prices available on Manchester City, but I don’t mind laying the -1 either. Crystal Palace has too much uncertainty right now, with several players potentially on the way out. Most importantly, if Ismaila Sarr is sold, it would be another major blow to an attack that has already lost plenty of talent. Manchester City is under new management, but this is still one of the most talented and expensive squads in the Premier League. They have the best striker in the world in Erling Haaland and plenty of experience winning away from home. Palace could struggle to keep up if City gets rolling.
I’m not sure what a fair price on Chelsea against Fulham should be, but I know it should be much higher than -120. Fulham lost their manager and didn’t reload the way I expected, so this could be a difficult season for them. Chelsea are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The talent is obvious, especially in attack, but the biggest addition could be Alonso. He’s a proven winner and an excellent tactician who could finally push this group over the hump. I have Chelsea challenging for the Premier League title this season, and that makes taking care of business in matches like this critical. At -120, I’m willing to back Chelsea for all three points.
Liverpool should make a winning start to the new season under new manager Andoni Iraola. Newcastle are rebuilding after manager Eddie Howe left in the summer, along with captain Bruno Guimarães, fellow midfielder Sandro Tonali, winger Anthony Gordon, and veteran full-back Kieran Trippier. They could struggle in the opening weeks of the season, and Liverpool have a lot of firepower in their ranks, so the Reds look well priced to secure an away win.
Thank you Brentford for the profitable start to the Premier League on Saturday. Aston Villa finished fourth last season but lost second-leading scorer Morgan Rogers (10G, 6A) to Chelsea. And leading scorer Ollie Watkins (16G, 3A) is out amid a push from Al Hilal to get him as Watkins apparently wants to go. Villa's big offseason addition was Johan Manzambi, but he's not fit from a World Cup injury. So really BHA by default, and home teams in their openers have been cashing for us. The Seagulls are unbeaten in four this season: three friendlies and a Conference League qualifier.
Good start to the European season Sunday with a La Liga cash and the Premier League kicks off next weekend -- that was my best league a season ago. Tottenham barely avoided relegation in 2025-26 and has a new manager, while Brentford finished ninth in the table. The sides drew at Brentford last season. Spurs have a few player availability concerns (Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert and Dejan Kulusevski among them) even in an opener.
I think Tottenham did a really nice job this offseason, adding Sandro Tonali and making some needed adjustments to the roster. Roberto De Zerbi should also be an upgrade on the touchline, and there is enough quality here for Tottenham to take a step forward. On the other side, Brentford can score with the best of them, especially at home. I do think Tottenham get something out of this match, but I have a hard time seeing it stay under three goals. Both teams have plenty of attacking talent, and both can be vulnerable defensively. For me, there’s no need to overthink it. I’m backing Over 2.5 goals and expecting an open match with chances on both ends.
This is, for me, the match of the weekend. Ipswich pretty much copied Sunderland's plan that helped them find success last season. They spent over 200 million dollars of transfers and took out some big names from Ligue 1. This is a team that looks like they're not planning on just trying to survive, but to thrive in the Premier League. My hot take is they'll finish top 10 (+1500) if you're interested! But I don't see them starting their season with a loss. Draw and a push worst case!