Martin's Past Picks
Everton are surging with momentum after beating Fulham 2-0 and Man Utd 1-0 in their last two games. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has been superb, and the defense looks rock-solid right now. Everton’s forwards aren’t exactly setting the world alight, but the Toffees keep grinding out results. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in two-thirds of their games this season. Newcastle are strong at home, but they struggle on the road. Their away matches have averaged 1.83 goals, so this could be another low-scoring clash.
Man City should be too strong for Leeds this weekend. Manager Pep Guardiola rested several key players for their midweek Champions League game, including star striker Erling Haaland. The Norwegian striker will be raring to go, and he could run riot against Leeds. Man City have won 5 out of 6 home games this season, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 4. Meanwhile, Leeds have lost 5 of their 6 away games, and they tend to struggle against the best teams in the league.
Brighton should be too strong for Leeds at the Amex this weekend. The Seagulls are unbeaten at home this season, with two wins and two draws from four games. Meanwhile, Leeds don’t travel well – they’ve lost three of their four away games, conceding nine goals in the process. Brighton have superior players than Leeds in most departments, and they should win this game without too much trouble.
Crystal Palace should be full of confidence after beating Liverpool 3-0 on Wednesday. They rested several key players for that EFL Cup game, so the likes of Jean-Philippe Mateta and Tyrick Mitchell will now be fresh. The Eagles are winless in their last three Premier League games, but they should bounce back on Saturday. Brentford have lost three of their four away games so far this season, and they could be outclassed at Selhurst Park. Palace beat Brentford home and away last season, and they look even stronger now.
Wolves have a golden opportunity to secure their first win of the season when they host Burnley at Molineux on Sunday. They are rock bottom of the Premier League table, with just two points from eight games so far. Manager Vitor Pereira is battling to save his job, and he will be desperate to lead his team to victory in this match. Burnley have lost all four of their away games so far this season, having conceded 13 goals on the road. That’s a dreadful record, and they could struggle at Molineux.
Aston Villa should be full of confidence after winning their last four games. The Villans made a slow start to the season, but things have finally clicked into place. They’re the underdogs for this game, but they’ve won their last two matches against Tottenham. That could give them a psychological advantage. Spurs look stronger under new manager Thomas Frank this season, but he has a dreadful record against Villa boss Unai Emery: zero wins, two draws, and three defeats. For those reasons, Villa could pull off an upset in this game.
This promises to be a tight game between two evenly matched teams. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in the last nine games between Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, a run stretching back to 2019. They met twice last season, and both games resulted in 0-0 draws. Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals this season, but Crystal Palace are strong in defense. Palace’s games have averaged 2.00 goals, and their home matches have averaged just 1.67 goals, so under 2.5 goals looks appealing here.
Nottingham Forest are winless in seven games since appointing Ange Postecoglou as manager in September. He inherited a squad designed for counterattacking, and the players have struggled to adapt to his possession-based philosophy. The results have been disastrous: two draws and five defeats from seven matches. Postecoglou is now on the brink of being fired, and defeat to Chelsea could be the final nail in the coffin. Chelsea will be on a high after beating Liverpool last time out, and they should be able to exploit Forest’s defensive frailties.
Over 2.5 goals has paid off in three of Nottingham Forest's four games since they appointed Ange Postecoglou as their new manager. He is an attacking coach, and his team are normally involved in high-scoring games. That was clearly evident in Forest's 2-2 draw with Real Betis on Wednesday. The Forest defenders could be tired after flying back from Spain, and Sunderland's forwards are capable of capitalizing, so this should be a high-scoring clash.
Premier League champions Liverpool are top of the table after winning all five league matches so far this season. They also beat Atlético Madrid 3-2 in the Champions League, so they're on a six-game winning streak. The Reds have delivered some lackluster performances, but they always find a way to win. Palace are on a 17-game unbeaten run, but it could end against this talented Liverpool team.
Games between Brentford and Man Utd tend to be high-scoring affairs. A bet on over 2.5 goals would have paid off in six of their last eight games, including Brentford's thrilling 4-3 victory over Man Utd in May. Brentford have emerged as one of the Premier League's most entertaining teams this season, and 80% of their games have seen over 2.5 goals. Their games have averaged 3.2 goals, while Man Utd's games have seen an average of 2.8 goals, so a wager on over 2.5 goals in this match looks appealing.
Bournemouth will be full of confidence after winning their last three games. They've scored in all of their matches so far this season, with Antoine Semenyo leading the charge. Newcastle's defenders could be tired, as they have a midweek game against Barcelona, and they're likely to concede. However, the Magpies look strong in attack, as new signing Nick Woltemade has hit the ground running, so this could be a relatively high-scoring game.
This should be an entertaining game. West Ham have conceded 11 goals in 4 games this season, so they're unlikely to keep a clean sheet. The Hammers have also scored a goal per game, and they have enough firepower to hurt Palace. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in 8 of the last 12 games between these teams, and it should land again.
Man City will be desperate to return to winning ways after suffering back-to-back defeats against Spurs and Brighton. They have a golden opportunity to do so when they host local rivals Man Utd on Sunday. Man Utd have made a dismal start to the new season, and they could struggle to deal with the pace and power of Man City striker Erling Haaland. It could be a tight game, but City’s superior quality should ultimately shine through.
This should be an entertaining clash between two teams that like to attack. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in the last four meetings between Brighton and Bournemouth. It’s easy to see why, as they’re both dangerous in possession, but they both struggle defensively. Brighton will be full of confidence after beating Man City 2-1 last time out, while Bournemouth are on a three-game winning streak, so everything points to over 2.5 goals in this game.
