Expert Picks
Tottenham are unbeaten in two, worth a bet …?
The Stadium of Light is no longer a fortress. ...
Brighton's UEFA flop was a blessing for this line. ...
Nottingham Forest are currently 19th on the EPL table, only ahead of Sunderland in the league and only by a single point. The team has just a single win over their first seven matches and have put up a pathetic five goals over those games. They did, however, put up an impressive loss only losing 1-0 to Arsenal, and I believe that is giving us inflated lines now. Meanwhile while Ipswich isn't great by any means, they've shown some serious heart, and I believe even on the road they shouldn't be this much of an underdog.
I do not tail, but I certainly take others' opinions whom I respect into the equation. And I was sorta leaning this way but then I saw Buckets play it and yeah that clinched. I'm getting there, but he's still way more soccer knowledgeable. I mean, a home team getting the Asian "hook" so to speak is something I always like anyways if all relatively equal. And the Sandwich spreads are higher in the table. Draw, draw, draw that would be great. Would I bet this if not a standalone 3 pm game now that I miss Cubs Friday matinees? I honestly don't know the answer ... but I am prepared to have chips and a Guinness ready.
I’m taking the over in this matchup between two teams that can score but have struggled defensively. Ipswich Town have done well finding the back of the net, but keeping opponents off the scoresheet has been a completely different story. Nottingham Forest haven’t kept a clean sheet in what feels like forever, and their willingness to shoot should create plenty of scoring opportunities. Ipswich aren’t exactly a defensive powerhouse either, which makes this a favorable matchup for both attacks. The over has cashed in three of Ipswich’s last four matches. I expect both teams to find the back of the net, and there will be plenty of chances to get a third.
Fading Manchester United worked well last Tuesday in the Champions League; Lisandro Martinez had some pretty pointed things to say post-game about management that was massive news in England and got him fined. The club has just six points through six Premier League matches for its worst start there in 40 years, so it might all be coming apart. And a handful of injuries. Leeds' 45 points in the EPL since last December are sixth-best in the league. And in that same time frame, only three clubs have accumulated more home points.
Brighton have quietly been one of the Premier League’s best home teams, conceding just 0.33 goals per match. Crystal Palace have improved considerably since the start of the season, but they’re coming off a hard-fought midweek match, and I think fatigue could play a factor. Palace have also been fortunate defensively away from home, conceding fewer than 1.25 goals per match despite an xGA of 1.87. Those numbers suggest regression is coming, and Brighton are more than capable of taking advantage. Given Brighton’s defensive record at home and Palace’s underlying numbers on the road, I have a hard time seeing anything other than a Brighton win. I think they win by two clear goals, giving us value on the -1 line.
Bournemouth should have enough quality to pick up their first win of the Premier League season when they host Sunderland on Sunday. The Cherries picked up a morale-boosting 3-0 victory over Strum Graz in the Europa League on Thursday, but their domestic results have been poor. It has taken them a while to adjust to life under new manager Marco Rose, but they’ve also faced a difficult run of fixtures, including games against Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. They now have a golden opportunity to beat Sunderland, who are on a three-game losing streak in the Premier League. The Black Cats played away in Portugal on Thursday, so they could be tired, and they could be overrun in this game.
Thank you Aston Villa for Wednesday's utter obliteration of Fenerbahce in the Champions League. That paid. But also partly why fading here with the quick turnaround. I haven't played soccer since I was about 12 because where I grew up, you teased soccer kids. Pretty clear life sporting itinerary: Football season, then basketball, then baseball. Mix in a bit some hockey, golf and tennis. Soccer was what girls played. Obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek here but not totally inaccurate. Yeah, the 1980s were pretty different ... I still have no interest in soccer as player but am just loving it as a bettor. And all for three letters: D.N.B.
Hull City have been one of the biggest surprises of the season\. After earning promotion, they invested heavily in bringing Premier League\-level talent into the squad, and it’s paid off\. They’ve lost just once this season and have already produced some impressive results\. On the other side, Fulham are sitting at the bottom of the table\. I think the managerial changes and their failure to bring in enough Premier League\-quality players have played a major role in their struggles\. Sure, Fulham could win this match, but I think Hull City are more likely to win or draw\. Rather than getting aggressive with the moneyline, I’ll take the double chance at a price I think offers better value\.
This could be a difficult spot for Chelsea traveling to Everton for an afternoon kickoff. On paper, Chelsea have the advantage. They’ve been excellent offensively and are scoring goals at a high rate. However, their away form has been a concern, with the Blues going 1-2 away from Stamford Bridge this season. Everton are one of just three unbeaten teams remaining in the Premier League, and I think their physical, compact defensive structure could cause Chelsea problems. My biggest concern with Chelsea is their inability to keep clean sheets. They have conceded in every match this season, and against an Everton side that is difficult to break down, I question whether Chelsea can do enough offensively to overcome another poor defensive performance.
So here is how I do things: I look at our board (six books) and if there's an outlier I go investigate. Magnum PI stuff, but I sadly don't have a Ferrari or cool mustache. This is an outlier. Over 2.5 is fairly juiced at the others, but obviously 3 is such a key number in soccer. I'm good with it.
I don't love being overly aggressive coming out of the international break, but this is a simple fade of Tottenham. United are banged up, and several players logged meaningful international minutes, so a sluggish start wouldn't surprise me. Still, I have zero fear of this Spurs attack. Tottenham have scored just two goals all season, the second fewest in the Premier League behind Coventry. Even Coventry have more points than Spurs, who sit bottom of the table at 0-2-3 with a minus-6 goal differential. United have just one win themselves, so we're not exactly backing a powerhouse. However, I have a hard time seeing Tottenham winning this match. I wouldn't be surprised if United walked away with a comfortable 3-0 victory.
Fulham have been a cornucopia of embarrassment so far this season. They are currently sitting 19th on the table sitting with just two points and five goals in their opening five matches. This team is beyond toothless when it comes to their attack as they seem lost this season. While on paper playing a newly promoted side should be a good matchup, Ipswich are adjusting wonderfully to their EPL season sitting 11th on table and are coming out swinging against every team they match. I don't see the break fixing this team and expect Fulham to get at least a point.