Most of our books have 2.5 but similarly juiced Over. Man U is playing great but Bournemouth has the fourth-best defense at home in EPL action -- only Man City, Arsenal and Sunderland conceded fewer than the Cherries' 15 goals at Vitality Stadium. They have kept clean sheets in three of their last four league matches and allowed a total of two goals in the past five. They have drawn more games than anyone else in the league so far with 14 and 1-1 totally works today. I will say the clubs played a wild 4-4 reverse fixture Dec. 15, but I certainly don't expect 8 goals again. Our model has 2.9 goals scored. Bournemouth has scored one goal in its past four.
Draw No Bet would be nice, but not at -400. So we'll roll with this. Wolverhampton is by far the worst club in the league and might not have starting keeper Jose Sa -- although considering Wolves have a league-worst minus-30 goal differential, perhaps that's not a bad thing. As Brentford chases European football next season, this is a must-have three points. It won the reverse fixture 2-0 in December on a second-half brace from Keane Lewis-Potter. Some of our books have -1 and that doesn't interest me. The Bees have lost just one of their past six league matches. Wolves have yet to win a road match.
Sitting three points higher in the Premier League table, shouldn't Sunderland be a slight home favorite? Although, the Black Cats are off a terrible home loss Sunday in the FA Cup to lower-tier Port Vale. Noah Sadiki and Trai Hume were suspended for that but are back. Sunderland has won the past five at home vs. Brighton and unbeaten in nine overall in the series (two draws). Sunderland is sixth in the Premier League on home form this season, while Brighton is 16th on away form. Sunderland has conceded just 13 goals in 14 home league games; only Arsenal and Man City have allowed fewer on home soil.
Like a fading frontrunner at Cheltenham, Spurs have squandered almost all of their cushion in the race to stay out of the drop zone, with Forest and West Ham each now just one point behind as Tottenham remains winless in calendar 2026. Igor Tudor is trying all sorts of combinations, including junking his preferred 3-4-2-1 to a flat-back four last weekend at Fulham, still to no avail. Palace has at least seen its form improved somewhat, with Jørgen Strand Larsen, via Wolves, providing some spark since his transfer window add. The bottom line is that Spurs just don't seem to win these days, so looking for the best option to take advantage. Play Palace on Asian Line
I have said this for about a month now. It's not the hottest take by any means, but it's a take I stand by. I believe that Spurs will be relegated, and will spend next season in Championship play. For this prediction to come true, I need Spurs to continue to do what they're doing , and that's lose games. It's not even entirely their fault. Spurs injury list is a CVS receipt at this point, and before the red card, Palace looked good against a strong United side. It'll be close, but Palace should get all three points.
Man United should extend their 11-game unbeaten streak when they face struggling Newcastle this week. The Red Devils are flourishing under new manager Michael Carrick. They've picked up seven wins and four draws from their last 11 matches, and they're surging with confidence right now. By contrast, injury-hit Newcastle have lost five of their last six games. They slumped to a 3-2 home defeat against Everton at the weekend. The Magpies are now 13th in the Premier League table, 15 points below Man United, and they could struggle to contain the Red Devils in this game.
Shoutout the the team working behind the scenes for getting a "Draw No Bet" line available for matches moving forward! This is the primetime example of a bet I want to take DNB on. We have a Newcastle club who is good at home, but struggling in recent form, taking on a United side who can struggle on the road, but is in fantastic form. I think United win this outright, but to get -105 with a safety net of a push is wonderful. United is third on the table, and are pushing to maintain a UCL spot. I don't see this strong side dropping all three points.
Some of our other books are already north of -200 for this -- which I think it should be -- so we'll jump now. Again, no thoughts of a straight ML play at this number. Fulham is 15 points up on West Ham United, which is currently priced -150 to be relegated. The Cottagers, a streaky bunch, have won three straight in all competitions, while the Hammers were just blasted at Liverpool on the weekend. Fulham won the reverse fixture 1-0 at London Stadium in late December on a Raúl Jiménez 85th minute goal. He has eight EPL goals this season. WHU has totaled only 13 points in 14 away matches. Fulham has 26 in 14 at home.
The Hammers' mood is still upbeat, say sources, as Nuno continues to coax some efforts from his side since later January, with the only recent losses coming vs. Champs League entries Chelsea and Liverpool. Even at Anfield last weekend, West Ham made a fist of it, threatening to get back into the match in the second half after goals from Tomás Soucek and Valentin Castellanos. Having blown recent late leads in that Chelsea match and also vs. Man United (which ended 1-1), West Ham has been in position to do a bit better the past month, and with Jerrod “Mr Reliable” Bowen, Callum Wilson, and the aforementioned Soucek (17 goals between them), the Hammers have enough sharp edges. Play West Ham on Asian Line
I know you all will get tired of me saying this, but I'll continue to say it every matchday. Arsenal Still. Cannot. Afford. To. Drop. Points. They are five points ahead of Manchester City, but the Citizens have a game in hand, meaning more realistically they are just two points ahead. Arsenal are finding good form right now, and can't slow down against a sloppy Brighton side. This should be an easy three points even on the road.
I want to start off very candidly and say this. If the line on this match was set to over/under 3.5 goals, I still would have taken the over. I'm expecting absolute fireworks at Craven Cottage even though this is a midweek fixture. We are on the precipice (big word) of seeing a massive club being relegated this season. It could be West Ham, it could be Tottenham, and it could be decided by how West Ham play their next few matches. They have to press. They have to score goals. They can't sit back for draws. This match is going to get ugly, with goals galore.
I don't know why the books do this. Frankly, I don't care what the reasoning is, because for us, it's just good value every week. The books hate giving credit for the success Fulham this season. This team is 9th on the table coming off big back to back wins, playing a West Ham side who is flopping around the relegation zone, and we're once again getting Fulham at plus numbers. We cashed on them twice against Fulham, no reason to change things up for once again, a good attacking host.
Manchester City won 1-0 against a strong Leeds team in the last matchday, but if they were a bit more clinical in front of goal, they should have had three or four goals. This side is on the prowl right now with a game in hand fighting to catch up to Arsenal. Both clubs are in a position where they have to keep winning, and one slip could be the difference between winning or losing the title. Nottingham Forest are going to fight hard here, fearing relegation, but I have City winning this by at least two goals, maybe more.
Everton is the far superior side, still has hopes of qualifying for European soccer next season and would get to seventh in the EPL with a win. Yet for some reason can't win at its home of Hill Dickinson Stadium with five losses and two draws in the past seven there. But the Toffees have been great away. Still, no excuse for not getting 3 points here. The Clarets sit 19th in the table, eight points from safety, and have allowed the most goals in the Premier League. Everton is unbeaten in the past four meetings, but the December reverse was a draw. That's my only concern here, but DNB is -500 so no.
Perhaps having so many players leave for AFCON duty in the middle of the season, and then returning in January, effectively put Sunderland's season off its early axis. Meanwhile, it says something about how far Leeds have come since Daniel Farke pulled off the hand-brake and turned his players loose in late November, to the point the only losses since have come against current Champs League participants Arsenal, Newcastle, and Man City. Though not completely clear with the drop zone just six points below, nothing about form the past three months suggests Leeds is in any danger, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, still getting ample opportunities, is due to resume his goal-scoring spree from the late autumn (seven across a six-match stretch). Play Leeds on ML