One of our books has 2.5 but overjuiced. I tend to think Man U gets to at least two goals because West Ham pretty much allows at least two every game. But will United get a third and the Hammers one of their own is really what I believe this comes down to. West Ham is without second-leading scorer Lucas Paquetá (3 goals) and United might be missing Bruno Fernandes (2 goals, team-leading 5 assists). Harry Maguire and Benjamin Sesko are still unavailable. None of the past five in the series have topped three total goals scored.

West Ham has had Man U's number, winning three of the last four matches, though the odds are stacked against the Hammers tonight Old Trafford. Should they be? Nuno's side was on a heater, unbeaten in three with two wins included, before running into desperate Liverpool last weekend and hanging in the match until Cody Gakpo finally secured the win for the Reds in stoppage time. As issue for Nuno might be the suspension of orchestrator Lucas Paqueta, sent off last weekend with two yellows, and thru whom most West Ham attacks flow, but the Hammers have found other ways in the past month and still have Jarrod Bowen to score goals. Can erratic Man U extend a margin? Play West Ham.

West Ham are such an interesting club. They are this historic giant club with a whole plethora of support and praise, and right now they're fighting to avoid relegation, sitting 18th on the table. The good thing they have going for them though, is it does look like they're starting to turn things around. After a catastrophic start to their season, they've now avoided defeat in three of their last five matches, and they've also covered the spread in four of their last five. This is a team that was able to take points off Newcastle, Burnley and Bournemouth all in November, and will look to keep things tight against a shaky at best Manchester United side.

I generally try to play Under 3.5 when it's not Barcelona or Man City, etc. Our model has 2.8 goals scored, and I do think/hope this lands right at 3. Six of Liverpool's past seven in all leagues have seen fewer than 3.5 goals scored and the Reds kept a clean sheet last time out vs. West Ham. It's the third game in a week for Liverpool, and manager Arne Slot has said the likes of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak would struggle to play three sets of 90 minutes in a week. So they may come off the bench today or be subbed early. Slot named star Mohamed Salah to the bench for the win at West Ham and that has caused some tension.

Leeds currently sit in the relegation zone thanks to their porous backline, which has conceded 25 goals in league play. Chelsea have scored two or more in four of their last five across all competitions, and the Blues will be without central midfielder Moises Caicedo on Wednesday, which will likely lead to more scoring opportunities for Leeds, who’ve scored one or more in four of their last five league fixtures.

Leeds are having a tough time finding their identity since they returned to the Premier League. They are currently sitting 18th on the table, in the relegation zone, just one spot against fellow promoted side Burnley. They keep changing up their playstyles trying to find what works for them, which is good for us when betting on goals! They've switched to a high-line and are pressing regardless of how good their opponents are. They've now hit over 2.5 goals in five matches straight, and score twice against Man City last week. Expecting goals once again for Leeds!

Chelsea will come into this matchup absolutely ecstatic after taking a point off Arsenal earlier this week at Stamford Bridge. They managed a 1-1 draw even after Moises Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute. That draw, and a 3-0 butt-whooping against Barcelona means Leeds have to welcome Chelsea at a tough time. To make it even tougher, Chelsea are expecting to finally welcome back their best goal-scorer, Cole Palmer. Palmer will be itching to find the scoresheet, and I'm expecting goals, and a victory for The Blues.

Palace has a few knocks led by Senegalese forward Ismaïla Sarr, who will not make the trip. Sarr has featured in all but three of Palace’s matches in all competitions this season, scoring seven goals and assisting once. Apparently some Lane Kiffin-type coaching drama, too -- why does everyone care so much?!?! -- regarding Oliver Glasner. Burnley has dropped four straight league games so desperate. The Clarets (excellent even if not the musical instrument) are currently 19th in the league table, but a victory against the Eagles could lift them out of the relegation zone. Seems like a rare winnable home match, but we are fine with the draw. Burnley has gotten seven points from six matches at its Lancashire base thus far.

Surprising to get such a fat price on Aston Villa. We know Brighton hasn't lost in six EPL matches at the Amex and was unbeaten in four November outings, but Villa has been on a straight ascent, losing only one of ten to race into the top four after a winless start in August. EPL observers are still struck that the Villans could be on such a roll without much scoring help from target-man Ollie Watkins, still on just one goal, but a breakthrough is imminent as it was last week for marauding frontliner Morgan Rogers, also sitting on just one goal into the November 23 match at Leeds before his brace proved the winning margin in a 2-1 triumph. Play Aston Villa on ML

I'll be the first one to admit that Wolves looked like a competent team when they played against Aston Villa last week. It's the best they've looked the entire season, and they still, lost the match. Maybe they'll find some motivation in keeping things close against a strong Aston Villa club, but for the time being, they are still last on the table, haven't won a match, and have the worst defense and offense in the league. Forest will be desperate to bounce back after getting smacked by Brighton, and a match against Wolves is the perfect opportunity to do that.

The trademark unbreakable defense that Arsenal had early in this season is showing some serious cracks. While they're still obviously doing wonderful this season, they've now conceded in four matches straight. Gabriel missing in their defense is allowing teams to not win, but score, which was a rarity the first 10 matchdays. Arsenal is now longer playing to win for cagey 1-0 matches, they've having to press for multiple goals. Brentford will know this is a chance to go for points, and attack while the Gunner backline is weakest. I love the over here, and BTTS as well.

Spurs have problems that all can see and Thomas Frank is starting to feel some real heat (the only win since October 26 was vs FC Copenhagen in the Champions League). Supporters claim tactics and lineups remain too much in flux, but there's no doubt Spurs are playing better on the road, the latest example last week, pushing PSG hard in a 5-3 loss at Parc des Princes. Frank does have some sharp edges in attack (especially Richarlison and Mohammed Kudus, the latter scoring the lone goal vs Fulham on the weekend), and it's unlikely Gugliemo Vicario makes another mistake in goal as he did vs. Fulham. Remember, until a week ago, Eddie Howe was feeling real heat at Newcastle, too. Play Spurs on Spread

Newcastle enter this game off a rare road victory after stomping down Everton 4-1. Newcastle is a club that is known for their home success, but can sometimes struggle to find positive results on the road. One thing we have see from The Magpies recently, is a whole lot of goals. Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals has now hit in their last four matches straight across all competitions. Nick Woltemade continues to lead the attack, but players like Malick Thiaw and Harvey Barnes are bolstering the ranks. Spurs defense has been shoddy, and I'm expecting St. James' Park to once again see goals.

These two teams have played each other and incredible five times over the last year and a half. They've had friendlies, EPL matches and the EFL Cup last season. Those five matches have been brutal for Spurs, who lost four times and drew once. Their last four matches at St. James' Park, they've been outscored 14-2. This is a brutal place for anyone to play, and is the type of travel where teams can be mentally defeated before even showing up. Newcastle are in great form and Spurs are starting to flounder a bit. I'm expecting a high-scoring and decisive victory for the hosts.

City has won the past 18 meetings vs. Fulham, which is the longest winning run by a team against any opponent in the history of the EPL, scoring 54 goals and conceding only seven. So I doubt the 2025 Citizens want to be the first to end that run. They have a chance to move within two points of Premier League leaders Arsenal with a win. Man City has had issues on the road this season, winning just two of the six Premier League away games. And Fulham has just one home loss. But I think the visitors squeak out a W. We'll do the Asian Handicap, though.