The Hawkeyes’ defense is the best in the country in scoring (4.3 PPG) and yards allowed (176.7), allowing 13 total points this season. Granted, two of the games were vs. NIU and Northern Iowa, but they also beat rival Iowa State. The key is RB Kamari Moulton, who Coach Kirk Ferentz is optimistic will play. Iowa has also shown an offense this season, averaging 477 yards and 268 rushing yards a game. The matchup could be decided at the line of scrimmage, where Iowa enters averaging 7.4 yards per carry. The offense remains a major issue for the undefeated Wolverines, who average 27.3 points per game (91st in the country) and are 90th in the nation in rush offense.
I would be borderline shocked if either team scores more than 21 points in this game. Michigan has played five poor halves of offense football in three games. Iowa has allowed only 13 points total through the first three weeks. Though the Wolverines exploded last week in the second half against UTEP, it won't carry over this week. This is going to be a "three yards and a cloud of dust" Big Ten special. If you like points, this game won't be for you. Michigan 17, Iowa 14.
Michigan’s offense has struggled to find its rhythm in the first month, averaging just 323.3 yards per game (118th in the FBS) and converting only 30.4% of its third-down attempts. Now, they face an Iowa defensive front that is the best in the nation against the run, giving up just 66 yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry. Iowa’s interior line is especially tough, stopping opponents behind the line on 28.4% of run plays. According to my model, Iowa holds the edge in 14 out of 15 key predictive categories—including point differential (+18.4 net margin), trench play, EPA per play, success rate, special teams, and, perhaps most importantly, strength of schedule. My model’s true line is Michigan -1. Take the points.
