Home teams went 4-0 in Year 1 of the 12-team field, but the talent differential in those games was much greater than it will be when Alabama and Oklahoma battle. The Crimson Tide’s embarrassing loss in the SEC Championship Game, coupled with the Sooners’ two-point win at Bama last month, should have this line higher, which is telling in terms of the belief in the visitors. Teams “disrespected” like the Tide often use that as significant motivation in rematches, and Bama certainly has a lot to prove given the way it finished the season. The Tide outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards in that first game, and in college football, it is exceedingly tough to beat the same team twice in one season.

Warning: I've been wrong on Oklahoma all season. I keep fading the Sooners because of their pop gun offense, but their elite defense keeps bailing them out. In their narrow 23-21 win over Alabama one month ago, they were outgained 406 yards to 212 but turned three Crimson Tide turnovers into 17 points. But can Oklahoma's defense do it again on Friday? I'm going to say no. I realize that Alabama's offense failed to move the ball in the SEC Championship Game, but all it needs to do on Friday is not turn the ball over because the Tide defense should give the offense opportunities. Give me the plus-money on Alabama in what's a coin-flip game.

This should be more of a defensive game. Oklahoma gets back Mason Thomas to add to already their above average rushing defense. The Crimson Tide, and Oklahoma’s running game hasn’t been good as each are averaging under 126 yards per game. Ty Simpson has been inconsistent down the stretch and since the Sooners defense is only allowing 2.5 yards per carry, Alabama will continue to lean heavily on their passing attack. However, the Sooners defense is only allowing six yards per pass. Oklahoma has struggled offensively as well and the under is a combined 19-5-1 in each team's last 25 games.

This playoffs line has whipsawed for the past two weeks, but we're still talking a very narrow range and it's really pick the winner. In that case, an argument for the zig-zag in rematches that we noted in conference title weekend seems very much in play, simply because we can't see the Sooners replicating the dynamics of their 23-20 win last month at Tuscaloosa. Brent Venables' big-play defense keyed a 3-0 TO edge that night for OU, but the Sooners offense hasn't looked smooth since QB John Mateer injured his wrist in September. True, Bama's SEC title game effort won't be enough, but QB Ty Simpson has won some big games on the SEC trail this season. Play Alabama.

I've changed my opinion on Alabama for this game, and I'm siding with Oklahoma almost entirely because they're at home. In this playoff round last year, all of the home teams had a huge edge that carried them to victory. I think Norman, Oklahoma, has the edge that Alabama on the road can't match. I've been watching Alabama since October 25, which was a game at Columbia against South Carolina, who came to play as a 12.5 point underdog. Alabama won 29-22, but they didn't cover. They looked sluggish against LSU, and then Oklahoma came to Tuscaloosa and laid down some defense, winning 23-21. Alabama will struggle to run the ball. The Oklahoma defense and the crowd at Norman, Oklahoma, lead the Sooners.

The Crimson Tide do just enough offensively to secure a big road win in Norman. Alabama is a team that should benefit from the mini-break and extra prep time heading into this matchup. Oklahoma ranks outside the top 90 in offensive EPA per play, and that inefficiency shows up here. Alabama wins.

I project Alabama -3 here. Maybe the Tide shouldn't have gotten in the playoffs but that is irrelevant now. They are in. Alabama was running on fumes late in the season. They haven't looked the same since that brutal four-week stretch where they faced Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee in October. I expect to see a different team in the playoffs. No one needed the break more than the Tide to get healthy. I think the defense dominates this game and the offense will do just enough to get the win and advance.