Tonight, the Notre Dame Irish will go into Miami looking to build upon last year’s success getting to the college football title game. Getting his first start will be CJ Carr at quarterback, who will go up against one of the more experienced quarterbacks in Carson Beck. Yet, expect Marcus Freeman to have his team better prepared and the talent edge to be on the Irish side. Bypass the spread and take the Irish on the moneyline.

One thing worth paying attention to this early in the season has been the performances of inexperienced QBs on the road against good defenses. Ask Texas and Alabama. CJ Carr is making his first career start against on the road against a strong Miami team with a veteran QB of its own in Carson Beck.

Outside of Penn State, the Fighting Irish have the best running back tandem in the country so we can expect a heavy dose of the run game. The weather is also projecting rain and scatter thunderstorms throughout the day and possibly during as well. The field conditions may not be the best regardless of the weather as there was a game at Hard Rock yesterday. Notre Dame has the better offensive and defensive lines and will need to make Carson Beck uncomfortable as he's struggled throwing interceptions under pressure last season.

I have Notre Dame winning 62% of simulations, which implies the line should be -163.

Under results have been cashing with some frequency since Week 0, a trend that mostly endured on Saturday, and no reason to expect a change tonight at Hard Rock. Notre Dame in particular doesn't figure to have a lot of flash offensively, given that redshirt freshman CJ Carr makes his first-ever start at QB for the Irish on Sunday. Expect a run-heavy offense pivoting around RB Jeremiyah Love, as the Irish are very comfortable playing at a slower pace and letting their defense do the heavy lifting. We'll see how Miami fares with ex-Georgia Carson Beck at QB, though Mario Cristobal is also confident his defense can keep the new Irish QB Carr relatively contained.

The model is not the highest on Miami, who we don't see as a playoff team after replacing Cam Ward with Carson Beck. Notre Dame, on the other hand, also has to replace their QB, but they were a playoff team last year. Notre Dame has a significant advantage in the turnover department which we think will play a big role in this game. Notre Dame went 6-0 SU and ATS in neutral/away games last regular season, and we like them to cover here.

It’s no secret I am low on Miami this season, and that includes Week 1. Miami lost its top five receivers and quarterback, and I’m not ready to back the Carson Beck experience right off the bat. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is a redshirt freshman but at least he’s been in the system and poses a dual threat. Notre Dame still has two of the best running backs in the country. In the SportsLine Model, we don’t credit Miami with much of a homefield advantage, so we have the 'Canes projected 5 points worse than most sportsbook odds would imply, and Notre Dame as 3 points better than the odds imply. We make this over a touchdown victory for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame and Miami both feature new quarterbacks this season, Carson Beck and likely C.J. Carr, but the stability angle is bolstered by Notre Dame's coach, Marcus Freeman, who demands discipline and commands respect. I’m betting the discipline will be the deciding factor for the Irish. I’m betting they will not false start as many times as Miami, and on defense, they won't be offsides as much as Miami. They get that from the strong coaching. I'm also betting Beck makes more mistakes than Notre Dame's QB. I don’t believe Miami coach Mario Cristobal has that strength with his squad featuring seven returning starters. Notre Dame to win.

I am planning on going to this game if life doesn't get in the way. Two rivalries back in the day got me hooked on college football: Michigan-Notre Dame (Rocket Ismail, I will never forget you pal) and this -- Catholics vs. Convicts. That was so darn fun. And I'm Catholic and think ND is a special place, but I definitely was on the Convicts' side. I root for the Irish otherwise. But they have massive QB questions. The Canes are breaking in a new one as well, but former Georgia star and one-time expected 2025 top pick Carson Beck has more than a few games under his belt.