The hook is not ideal. If you can stomach trying the live line for a smaller number, more power to you. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Rome Odunze will probably be the best two players on the field. The problem is that Texas is immensely efficient on offense, too, with Steve Sarkisian calling plays. Unlike the Huskies, the Longhorns have a running game, which they will use to run clock, and a capable defense that should pressure on Penix. Texas may not be great on D, but it’s better than Washington, and the ‘Horns should get enough stops to pull away in the second half. Look, the Huskies proved everyone wrong in the Pac-12 title game; they could do it again here.

Washington is the luckiest best team in the nation. These guys don’t give up, ever. They’ve got a 20-game win streak which includes beating Texas in the Alamo Bowl last season. Texas has won seven straight and covered the spread in their last three. The Texas defense allows only 321 ypg while both offenses produced about the same. The problem I have with Washington is that they go to the brink of losing in every Pac-12 game. The last three were won by 3-points or less and none of their last nine were won by more than 10-points. They beat weak ASU 15-7 and finished their season on a 3-6 ATS run. I’m on Texas to cover.

Guess 4.5 is gone now. Washington -- on a national-best 20-game winning streak -- certainly used the no respect/underdog card to its benefit in the Pac-12 title game against Oregon. The Horns haven't missed out-for-season tailback Jonathon Brooks (1,139 rushing yards to go with 25 receptions; tore ACL in mid-November) much yet but very well could here.

You can't give the playcallers involved with these teams a month to prepare for an opponent and not expect they'll cook up ways to roast each other's defense. I'm not entirely sure who wins this game in the end, but I'm confident they'll need at least 34 points to do so.

Kalen DeBoer and Steve Sarkisian might be work 10-14 points each for their excellence in game-planning and play-calling on offense. Throw in game-breaking wide receivers for both teams and I don't see how this is a game that isn't decided in the 30s. The key, if you're tracking this one live, is whether Texas can turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns. If the Longhorns are efficient in scoring position, this should be an easy over.

Texas ended the season playing its best ball of the season. Can we say that about Washington? Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and his receivers figure to have a big game against the Longhorns' pass defense, which is Texas' biggest weakness. But the Longhorns' advantage over the Washington defense is even greater; I can't see the Huskies stopping either the Texas running or passing game. In the end, I trust the Longhorns' defense to get a key stop against Washington more than I trust the Huskies' defense to get a key stop against Texas. Longhorns win, something like 37-30.

Much has been made about Washington's advantage over Texas' secondary, which is significant. But I think the Longhorns' offense has an even bigger edge over the Huskies' defense, which ranks 90th in the country in total defense (396.9 yards per game). Also, both teams' offensive playmakers have had a month to get healthy, and I expect you'll see big plays on the Superdome turf. I won't be surprised if the offenses start slowly as they find their rhythm after a month off, but I expect both teams end up in the 30s. Two units on the Over.

If this Sugar Bowl semifinal doesn't clear 62.5, it's going to get close, but we suspect this is a game that ends up with both teams at least in the 30s and maybe higher. Expect more fireworks than last year's 27-20 Washington win at the Alamo Bowl, as the Huskies' defense was a bit more permissive this season. if forced to play from behind, the Huskies can accelerate the pace behind QB Michael Penix as they did in an early November game at USC when finally wresting control of a back-and-forth affair that landed on 94 points. We don't expect this one to get as high, but it doesn't have to if clearing this low 60s number. Play Texas-Washington "Over"

Texas HC Steve Sarkisian has been recruiting SEC athlete the past three years, starting with QB Quinn Ewers. #1 WR Xavier Worthy is health and ready to go. Washington is 13-0 straight up however they are just 3-5 ATS. Both teams played the same SOS. I have Texas winning by seven.

This game will be like a heavyweight fight. Both teams will feel each other out for a few drives, limiting the amount of drives in what, in other situations, would be more of a track meet. Sure … there still could be fireworks during the final three quarters. That won’t be enough for the Over to hit in this one …especially since the Under has hit in three straight Washington games as teams have started to figure out the offense’s strengths and weaknesses.

Last year, these teams met in the Alamo Bowl, a 27-20 victory that went 20 points under the projected game total of 67. If Texas is to win, they probably want to avoid engaging in a shootout. The higher-scoring the game, the better the likely result is for Washington. The Huskies won't be able to run (Texas allows only 80.4 yards per game, 4th best) so it will likely be on the throwing arm of Michael Penix, Jr. to pull off the victory. He'll fall short on a game tying drive. Texas 30, Washington 23.