Both clubs have top-5 scoring defenses and have put some decent offensive numbers against limited opposition. Ohio State's offense gave perhaps its best showing yet in last week's win over Purdue, while Penn State has scored 31 against the solid defense of Iowa. There should be enough offense in this one it send it Over the modest total.

I've been on Penn State in this game since before the season, and nothing the Nittany Lions have done to this point has dissuaded me. Suggesting PSU has not accomplished much this year ignores the way it played Iowa in a 31-0 shutout; it's not the shutout that's impressive but rather the 31 points. But the biggest reason to pick Penn State is its defense, which has the third best-pass rush rate in the nation going up against Kyle McCord, who struggles massively under pressure. PSU has covered three straight in Columbus, Ohio. I still like this at +4 though not as much as with the hook.

The Buckeyes have much better skill players than the Nittany Lions as they have the best wide receiver in the country in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. This will be the first test for the Nittany Lions and Drew Allar. The Buckeyes flex their muscles and win this game easy.

This won't look like the last few games between these two. Both defenses are better than the offenses here. Plus, Ohio State's banged up on offense, and could be without key pieces. As for Penn State, it's one of the least explosive offenses in the country. The winner here finishes with around 24 points.

I'm just not sold on Penn State yet -- it has been utterly dominant this season but look at the rather meh schedule. OSU's Kyle McCord looks like a different QB since leading that last-second win at Notre Dame. If this same spread were in Happy Valley (it wouldn't be, just saying), then I'd definitely take the points and Lions may well cover Saturday. James Franklin simply can't beat OSU, though. And Ryan Day has never lost to a Big Ten team that isn't from a mitten-shaped state. I'm not worried about all those injured OSU players who missed last week. Fairly sure that was to get them healthy for this one.

Penn State is 1-6 SU against the Buckeyes since 2016. However, this is probably the best Nittany Lions team in the James Franklin era. Penn State is allowing opposing offenses to 72.5 rushing yards and less than 200 yards of total offense per game. The Buckeyes have not been as efficient in the redzone as years past, ranking 54th in the country in redzone scoring, as compared to the Penn State ranking 18th. The Buckeyes are also dealing with injuries to their top corner and wide receiver, Emeka Egbuka, which will cause Marvin Harrison Jr. to be doubled. Penn State is also 6-1 ATS against the Buckeyes since 2016.

Ohio State can't run the football with any consistency and it's hurting the offense. Penn State has an elite defense and plodding, methodical offense. I get the low total, but it moves in comparison to the way these games have played out in recent years. In the last six years this game has finished with 75, 57, 63, 45, 53 and 77 points. There's defensive touchdowns, turnovers, huge special teams plays. There might be a slow start, but at some point Ohio State and Penn State will start exchanging haymakers and the game will go sideways.

Penn State is 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 games, meaning they have made backers money in essentially every game for a full season! The Buckeyes are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 against ranked opponents and 1-6 in their last seven at home against ranked teams. With two of the top three scoring defenses facing each other, I lean towards a lower scoring game decided by a field goal either way, 23-20.

Undefeated Penn State comes into Ohio Stadium with its No. 1 defense and the number is cheap for the home team. Their last loss was at home to Ohio State last year, 44-31, covering +15.5. Two first-year starters at QB, I’m on the home QB and the Buckeyes to slow Penn State’s running game. Wins at Illinois and at Northwestern won't prepare Penn State QB Drew Allar for a game at Columbus. Buckeyes to win and cover.