What may be the game of the year in what has definitely been the nation's best conference through the midway point of the season sees a pair of Heisman Trophy contending quarterbacks battle. But while the attention is focused on the offense, Oregon's defense is the potential difference-making unit in this game. The Ducks should limit Huskies possessions with a strong running effort as Oregon's defense looks to be the first unit to slow down Michael Penix Jr. even just a little bit. Wait until kickoff to see you can get the hook (+3.5) at -115 or better in what should be a close game.

"Road Bo" is a thing of the past. In the 7 games since the Oregon-Georgia 2022 game, Bo Nix has thrown 16 TD to 5 INT with a 73.4% completion rate, monumentally better than his 13 TD, 12 INT and 55% completion rate in road games with Auburn. Oregon has a dual-threat offense with a ground game that averages 6.9 yards/carry and can keep Michael Penix off the field. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks back 7 rates as the 15th-best coverage unit in the FBS, a problem for a Washington offense that airs it out 60% of the time. Models make this a PK on a neutral site, so I'll sprinkle on the dog ML.

Oregon plus the points. The Ducks have home revenge and the better defense. My model ranks Oregon #3 and Washington #14, with Oregon a 2.5-favorite to win this game. Dan Lanning's defense will be the difference maker.

This is the first time in the history of this rivalry that both the Huskies and Ducks are ranked in the top 10 upon meeting. The stakes are immense, with implications for the Pac-12 title game, the College Football Playoff race and Heisman consideration in the backdrop. Washington rallied for the final 10 points to win at Oregon last year and the Huskies are even more formidable this season. Heisman front-runner Michael Penix Jr. is averaging 400 passing yards per game and, while this matchup looks dead even on paper, Washington’s underrated and immense home-field advantage could prove to be the difference.

Washington grabbed the outright win, 37-34, at Oregon last season and didn’t need the 12-points. Oregon won and covered the previous three meetings, including two at Washington. The Ducks have won and covered all five games this season. It's a battle of undefeated squads featuring Washington’s No. 1 offense (569 ypg) vs. Oregon’s No. 2 offense (557 ypg). The difference is the Ducks No. 6 ranked defense. The wrong team is favored and Washington is getting too much credit for home field. I’m on Oregon to cover.

The Ducks are the most balanced of the top-tier Pac-12 teams, boasting a defense that has been relentless against weaker competition. Washington's offense is one of the best in the country and I expect Oregon will give up a lot of points, but the excellence of execution we've seen so far gives me confidence they the Ducks can get enough stops to steal a road win.

This O/U looks fishy to me. Oregon and Washington combine to average 97.6 points per game, yet the total is lower than last year's final result of 71? It's because both defenses are actually pretty good, combining to give up only 30.2 PPG. Picking a winner is difficult, I'd lean Washington at home, but let's go with what the oddsmakers are indicating is the wiser play, the under. Washington wins, 31-27.