The total has come down from 47. The last two meeting between these two have gone over. Air Force has an above average defense and a very good run game. The Aggies may struggle to keep the triple option in check as Air Force's main focus will be to establish the run. If the Falcons run game is successful, Utah State will be forced to pass on the this secondary hoping for multiple big plays.

Although this Utah State club is likely better than its modest pre-season projections, this sets up as a strong spot for Air Force. The Falcons have one of the best and most experienced defensive units in the tenure of coach Troy Calhoun, and the Falcons are eager to avenge back-to-back losses in this series.

This is a sneaky revenge game spot for Air Force. The last two meetings between these two teams have included both A.) the Falcons being favored by more than a touchdown and B.) Utah State pulling off a one-score win. But while Air Force has a group that is close to the recent program standard, I think Utah State rates a bottom-half MW team and I don't expect the Aggies to have the kind of offensive success (78 points) against Air Force's stout defense that they had against Idaho State.

These teams combined for 61 points in their meeting a year ago. Better yet, they collectively amassed 94 in 2021. Best of all, Utah State piled up 78 alone last week, albeit against Idaho State. Want more? The Aggies closed out their '22 regular season with games of 75, 66 and 65. The total might be depressed as a result of Air Force's 13-3 win over Sam Houston State last Saturday, but the FBS newbie played a 14-0 snoozer against BYU in its upper-level debut a week earlier. The big numbers in these teams' recent past rule. The 46.5 is a low hurdle.

This already has dropped from an open of 47 and it probably keeps going down. We cashed Under Air Force's total of just 37 points on Saturday against Sam Houston State as the teams combined for only 16 points. AFA leads the nation in total defense and has given up 10 points so far. I doubt Utah State scores more than 17 and don't see the Falcons getting to 30.