San Diego State is rolling under Brady Hoke, while Arizona continues to try and find its footing under Jedd Fisch. Will an offseason where nothing too significant changed be enough to take an SDSU team that won this game on the road by 24 a year go and have them play less efficiently at home? I don't see it. The Aztecs are probably going to be one of the best Group of Five teams in the nation, while the Wildcats will likely to be one of the worst Power Five teams. A touchdown without the hook is a good Week 1 play on the better team with the better quarterback playing at home.

The odds here are very favorable, and my model has San Diego State covering 74 percent of the time and winning outright in a whopping 85 percent of simulations. The Aztecs will be eager to christen their new stadium with a big victory and now have a quarterback who won’t make mistakes. This is a team that won 12 games last season, while the Wildcats went 1-11. The Aztecs will run all day, and they should run away with this game.

There's lots to be excited about with San Diego State this season, starting with quarterback and hometown hero Braxton Burmeister, formerly of Oregon and Virginia Tech. The Aztecs went 12-2 last season with multiple weak QBs. The offensive line will be as strong as ever, and the running game will still lead the way. The defense, which ranked third nationally against the run last season, will keep the Aztecs in every game. This spread should be double-digits. Arizona is still a year or two away. The Aztecs debut their new stadium for this one. San Diego State covers.

Arizona will be better than last year with the addition of Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura, who was selected as the 2021 Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year, but there's nowhere to go but up for a team that was 1-11. San Diego State won in Tucson 38-14 in 2021. The Aztecs lost both starting quarterbacks but still probably are better there with Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. SDSU is always among the nation's top defensive teams and will be again with seven starters back on that side of the ball. Facing the Pac-12 is no big deal for SDSU (which might be in the Pac-12 soon) as it has won seven of its past nine vs. the Big Brother conference. After playing their last 23 games (two-plus seasons) outside of San Diego County, the Aztecs will christen $310 million Snapdragon Stadium so it's a huge day for the program. Arizona might cover, but I really don't see an upset.

The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 as one-point road dogs last season. San Diego State out-gained Arizona 454-230. Arizona has a long way to go after winning just one game last season. The Wildcats' offensive line is ranked No. 12 in the Pac 12, and their defensive line is ranked No. 10. The Aztecs' offensive line is ranked No. 2 in the Mountain West, and their defensive line is ranked No. 2 heading into this opener. The Aztecs will be playing in a brand new home stadium. The new grass field should benefit San Diego State. The Aztecs are 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread on a grass field. Arizona plays mostly on turf. They are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS playing on a grass field over the past three years. Take the home team!