ANALYSIS: My model says the wrong team is favored here. Louisiana is covering 60 percent of simulations and wins by three, according to the model. And why not? The Ragin' Cajuns beat the Mountaineers by 28 earlier in the season in Lafayette, and the teams will meet in Lafayette again on Saturday. I think Louisiana coach Billy Napier, who's leaving for Florida, and senior quarterback Levi Lewis will badly want to leave Louisiana as Sun Belt champs. Take the Cajuns.