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Sat 12/04 | 8:30 PM UTC | Lafayette
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
App. St. Mountaineers 9-2, 8-3 ATS
APLST -2.5
APLST -135
Over 52
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 10-1, 5-6 ATS
UL +2.5
UL +115
Under 52

Expert Picks

App. St. 16 @ Louisiana 24 | 12/04 | 8:30 PM UTC

Louisiana +3

WIN

ANALYSIS: My model says the wrong team is favored here. Louisiana is covering 60 percent of simulations and wins by three, according to the model. And why not? The Ragin' Cajuns beat the Mountaineers by 28 earlier in the season in Lafayette, and the teams will meet in Lafayette again on Saturday. I think Louisiana coach Billy Napier, who's leaving for Florida, and senior quarterback Levi Lewis will badly want to leave Louisiana as Sun Belt champs. Take the Cajuns.

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Stephen Oh

Data Scientist
+700 7-0 IN LAST 7 CFB PICKS
+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 APLST ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 UL ATS PICKS

Season Splits

9-2, 8-3 ATS
10-1, 5-6 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
73%
8-3
5-6
46%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
83%
5-1
3-2
60%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
67%
6-3
2-1
67%
When Spread was -4.5 to -1
SPREAD
When Spread was +1 to +4.5
0%
0-1
2-0
100%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
80%
4-1
1-0
100%
vs Teams That Win >70% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >70% of Games
50%
1-1
1-1
50%
vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG
50%
2-2
3-1
75%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
vs LALAF
HEAD TO HEAD
vs APLST
0%
0-1
1-0
100%