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Expert Picks
This is a tough one that I've gone back and forth about throughout the day, primarily due to Oregon starting quarterback Justin Herbert and his significant amount of experience and talent compared to still-developing freshman Bo Nix for Auburn. At the same time, I trust Gus Malzahn to coach up a QB -- even a young one -- for a game like this, and the Tigers do boast a better, beefier defense. I would not at all be surprised to see the Ducks win this game, but Auburn just beat Washington in a similar scenario a year ago -- though with a more experienced signal caller. I think that Huskies team was better, and I'm willing to lean with the SEC while everyone else is picking Oregon.
Auburn squeaked by Washington in a similar spot last and there has been quite a bit of support for the Tigers int his one as well. But they start a true freshman QB and have a lo of roster turnover. It feels tough to trust a Pac-12 club in this scenario, but the Ducks boast a legit Heisman candidate in QB Justin Herbert and one of the top offensive lines in the country, There's value in the points in what rates to be a tight game.
This is the biggest game of the weekend, and as such, it's going to result in the most narratives afterward. Either the Pac-12 will be back, or it'll still be dead. I'm not interested in the narratives as much as I'm interested in history. Since Auburn beat Oregon in the 2010 title game, the SEC and Pac-12 have crossed paths 14 times. The SEC is 10-4 ATS in those 14 games, and it's 6-0 ATS when the games have been played at neutral sites.
Auburn's defensive front vs. Oregon's offensive line is the most intriguing unit matchup of Week 1. Expect Auburn's front seven to win that battle more times than not and disrupt the rhythm of quarterback Justin Herbert. Auburn will give true freshman quarterback Bo Nix the entire playbook early in the season, but won't need to (or want to) in this one. Auburn and Oregon want to make this a bit of an old-school slugfest, and I'd be surprised if the total is more than 50.
Auburn brings 14 starters back from last season's squad that finished the season with 63 points in a bowl game against Purdue. But the Tigers will be starting true freshman Bo Nix at quarterback. Oregon brings back 10 starters on offense, including top NFL prospect Justin Herbert at quarterback and all five from a monstrous offensive line. I'm betting against the freshman QB and betting on Oregon's speed. I'm on the Ducks.