Jacksonville State is a plus-value team a top-10 three-point percentage in the country at 38.2% and a slow pace that clashes with how Auburn likes to play. Though coming from an Atlantic Sun Conference that rates in the bottom half of Division I, the Gamecocks tested themselves in the non-conference schedule in a way that should prepare them for this tough matchup. Jacksonville State played Alabama, VCU and Wichita State — all top-100 teams at KenPom — and the Crimson Tide loss was by just six. I don’t think we’ll see another 15-over-2 on Friday but Jacksonville State is good enough to make this interesting.

I've watched a good deal of Auburn ball this season, they are not the same when away from their home court. Haslametrics has Auburn as the 332nd best road team and Jacksonville St as 12th! Love that stat. I had this pick long before Kentucky got dropped by fellow 2-seed St Peters, but if that doesn't show you how wide open these games are, I don't know what will. Jax saw Alabama, Wichita and VCU this season in the non-conference, which helps a lot. They're also one of the oldest teams in D1 compared to Auburn being one of the youngest, I like that, the tournament takes composure and maturity. I'll take the points against an Auburn team that has yet to win by this amount on the road all year!

Auburn is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and looks ripe for an upset. Jacksonville State might be a team that can beat them outright because the Gamecocks shoot 47 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from 3-point range, which ranks second in the nation. Take the points with Jacksonville.

Jacksonville State is playing with house money. Atlantic Sun tournament champ Bellarmine was not eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, shifting the automatic bid back to the regular season champ, Jacksonville State. Auburn was great at home (13-3 against-the-spread) but had a losing ATS record away from home.