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Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. Now he has turned his attention -- and focused his algorithms -- on the 2021 baseball season. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 19 MLB PICKS
+705
Record: 12-6-1
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Detroit 9 @ Boston 12 | 05/06 | 5:10 PM UTC

Boston -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: This one hurt last night. Boston had so many chances and even after giving up three runs in the top of the 10th was able to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. So why go back to it? Well according to SDQL, the Tigers have lost all 16 games since Aug. 29, 2017, as a road dog coming off a one-run road win. That is hard to ignore. Also I love Nathan Eovaldi in this day game home spot, and the Red Sox do better than average at home in day games and against righties. I clearly love taking highly favorited teams ATS at a good price, as they win dominantly with enough frequency to make it worth it. I'm on Boston.

+705 12-6-1 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS
+205 3-1 IN LAST 4 BOS ATS PICKS
+205 3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ATS PICKS

Houston 7 @ N.Y. Yankees 4 | 05/06 | 5:05 PM UTC

N.Y. Yankees -1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Yankees have really come alive in the last week. They are now fourth in weighted on base average (wOBA) and second in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) over the last seven days. New York also has won 11 of its last 15 and covered the run line in all except for the game when it faced Indians ace Shane Bieber. We get good value Thursday because I think it’s safe to say the opposing pitcher, Lance McCullers, is not at Bieber's level. Gerrit Cole is going for the Yankees? New York wins by two-plus runs (-1.5, +105).

+705 12-6-1 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS

Detroit 6 @ Boston 5 | 05/05 | 11:10 PM UTC

Boston -1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Another even-money line on a favorite play of mine? The Tigers scored 7 Tuesday and I can almost promise that they wont reach that number again Wednesday, as they've only eclipsed it once all year. In fact, yesterday was their second-best offensive night and they still didn't cover the run line. That brings the ATS slide for Detroit to six games and, with the Red Sox being one of the best-hitting teams in baseball, I will back them to again win by multiple runs (-1.5, +100). Especially at home, where their splits are better than their average.

+705 12-6-1 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS
+205 3-1 IN LAST 4 BOS ATS PICKS
+205 3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ATS PICKS

Baltimore 6 @ Seattle | 05/05 | 7:40 PM UTC

Baltimore +110

WIN

ANALYSIS: John Means taking the mound? Orioles at plus money? Yes, please. Means has already faced the Mariners and had one of his worst outings of the year. Players remember these things and want to improve, so I imagine Means has studied the tape and bounces back nicely against a beatable Mariners team. The O's are better on the road this year, 9-6 SU compared to 5-10 at home, and have been more competitive than expected. The same way you always have a hard time getting value on the Yankees because of their name, you can expect the opposite with the Orioles. This is a good price.

+705 12-6-1 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS

Chi. White Sox @ Cincinnati 1 | 05/05 | 4:35 PM UTC

OVER 8.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Officially, the Reds went Under last night. But to anyone who played the line early in the morning, it was a push. That's how we do it. We also do not get scared off the play that still didn't lose even when one team only allowed two hits! How's that for a powerful White Sox lineup? Well, the Chicago squad, which is top three in average and OBP, is likely going to be met with more competition Wednesday. This should help us again get to nine. At even money, this is a clear play.

+705 12-6-1 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS