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Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Justin's Past Picks
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Fresno St. 85 @ C. Carolina 74 | 03/31 | 11:00 PM UTC

Fresno St. -3

WIN

ANALYSIS: This should be South Alabama in this game, Coastal hit the two luckiest shots of their season to force and, subsequently, win in OT against USA. While that's not the reason for my pick here, I doubt that Coastal can will that type of performance against a team that it has little familiarity with (USA and Coastal are divisional foes). Fresno comes from a Mountain West that has been ragged on all March because they couldn't get a single NCAA win, well Fresno is playing with much worse competition and the MW is still a good conference. I think Fresno get's this one done by more than a bucket, this has a chance to be a similar result to the beating they gave Southern Utah. Lay it with Fresno.

+956 36-24 IN LAST 60 CBB ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 CSTCAR ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 FRESNO ATS PICKS

Xavier 73 @ Texas A&M 72 | 03/31 | 11:00 PM UTC

Xavier +4.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: There might just be too much hype on the Aggies right now, so let's go against it. I like this game to be low scoring, so on principle I think that gives an edge to taking the points before even fading the recency bias. My model also has this game incorrectly priced by the books, I make Xavier just a 2 point underdog today. They have a strong offensive team that effectively scores the ball without relying on the 3pt shot. They do not make many unforced errors, which should limit transition buckets for the Aggies, and maybe most importantly they get to the Free Throw line with good frequency while not fouling too much on the defensive end. I'll grab the points in a championship game that I like to be called in such a way that it remains close and exciting.

+956 36-24 IN LAST 60 CBB ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 XAVIER ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 TEXAM ATS PICKS

Xavier 73 @ Texas A&M 72 | 03/31 | 11:00 PM UTC

UNDER 137.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Championship game with a total above 135? Merry Christmas everyone! The only way this game reaches this mark is through overtime, in my opinion. So go grab a nice +1000 sprinkle on this game to go to OT and play the Under. The Aggies are now on a 7 game streak of limiting opponents to 65 points or less, and I think Xavier is due for a bit of regression after hot shooting against SBU. This will be one of the toughest defenses that Xavier has played all season and I like the Aggies to slow it down. We saw last game had 8 points in the final 6min for A&M vs WSU, with lock down ability like that I think the Under has to be the call.

+904 41-29 IN LAST 70 CBB PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 TEXAM O/U PICKS

Washington St. 56 @ Texas A&M 72 | 03/30 | 1:30 AM UTC

UNDER 133.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Doubling down on this game and the Texas A&M defense with the Under play. This number is too high for a game of this severity. Neither team is from around the New York area so there might be some unfamiliarity and lack of crowd motivation. I also see this game being close, so at the end of the game the clock could easily be milked strategically by the team in the lead. Texas A&M has a dominant Over rate this year but that's really slowed down in the playoffs and I think we have a good chance to see this total come in under 130.

+904 41-29 IN LAST 70 CBB PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 TEXAM O/U PICKS

Washington St. 56 @ Texas A&M 72 | 03/30 | 1:30 AM UTC

Texas A&M -125

WIN

ANALYSIS: Let's grab this dominant Texas A&M squad to advance to the NIT final. They've been playing very strong basketball, winning 10 of their last 11 games and only taking a loss to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. They've also kept opponents under 66 points in all of their last 6 games. I think they will again be able to lean on their defense and keep this Washington State team at bay.

+904 41-29 IN LAST 70 CBB PICKS