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Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. Now he has turned his attention -- and focused his algorithms -- on the 2021 baseball season. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 4 MLB O/U PICKS
+400
Record: 4-0
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Chi. White Sox @ Kansas City 5 | 07/29 | 6:10 PM UTC

Chi. White Sox -177

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I'm happy to play behind Carlos Rodon and against Carlos Hernandez on Thursday, even with the rather steep price. Rodon is an absolute animal, with an expected slugging percentage of just .236 this season. That’s borderline absurd, just as is his .242 xwOBA. Rodon has yet to give up four runs in or lose in back-to-back starts. He did both in his last outing, so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t bounce back and shut down this rather weak Royals lineup. Hernandez walks more than 19 percent of batters faced and on a hot day those walks will lead to extended innings and likely some big numbers for the White Sox. I am on Chicago.

+323 5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS

Oakland 10 @ San Diego 4 | 07/28 | 8:10 PM UTC

OVER 8

WIN

ANALYSIS: This line has strangely fallen from this morning, and I do not agree with it so let's grab it at eight to snag a nice push condition. Blake Snell has been pretty terrible in day games (7.40 ERA) compared to when he gets to pitch at night (3.86). On top of that, the Padres' shiny new batting order with Adam Frazier looks to be formidable even for a pitcher like Sean Manaea. Factor in the below average Air Density Index in San Diego, and I think we should have a good chance to see a high level of scoring. Eight runs should not be insurmountable.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB O/U PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 SD O/U PICKS

Detroit 17 @ Minnesota 14 | 07/28 | 5:10 PM UTC

OVER 10.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is the best hitting environment of the day by far. If you watch the Early Edge you know that Mike McClure is also backing this play. I have been picking on Twins starter J.A. Happ all season, and I don't necessarily see the Tigers' Wily Peralta as all that much better. When Peralta faced the Twins on July 11, the game finished with 21 runs. The moment a result like that has a non-negligible value in the distributions, it becomes almost a must-play for how my betting systems work. Go Over.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB O/U PICKS
+95 2-1 IN LAST 3 MIN O/U PICKS

Cincinnati 7 @ Chi. Cubs 4 | 07/28 | 12:05 AM UTC

OVER 10.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I'll take this one Over 10.5 runs runs at -105 on William Hill. It's a good price considering how strong of a hitting environment we are getting in Chicago. The wind is blowing out and the air density is going to be quite low (59 ADI) for what we normally see at Wrigley. This game features two shaky starters and bullpens that have been used heavily the last couple of nights. Cubs RHP Adbert Azolay is expected to be the better starter, given that they're favored, but the Reds hit right-handers well, owning the fifth-best wOBA against them this season.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB O/U PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 CHC O/U PICKS

Colorado 2 @ L.A. Angels 6 | 07/27 | 1:38 AM UTC

OVER 7.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Angel Stadium is quietly one of the better hitting parks in all of baseball, as the Over is a profitable 31-15-1 there this year. Colorado RHP German Marquez has been consistent but struggled the last time he pitched in a plus hitting environment that wasn't his home field. In a game at Great American Ball Park in June, he surrendered eight earned runs over five innings. I see a lot of similarities between these rosters, and the Angels have the DH as well. I think it's a rougher outing for Marquez and the bullpens will bring us home to land at eight or more runs. On the other side, I think the Rockies are getting a little too much disrespect with this total after they kept pace with the Dodgers all weekend.

+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB O/U PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 COL O/U PICKS