loading...
Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. Now he has turned his attention -- and focused his algorithms -- on the 2021 baseball season. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 28 MLB ATS PICKS
+955
Record: 18-10
SportsLine Logo

Get Access To

All Picks from Justin & the Rest of Our Experts

Justin's Past Picks
ALL

Kansas City 3 @ Oakland 6 | 06/13 | 8:07 PM UTC

UNDER 8.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Playing at Oakland Coliseum is always beneficial for the Under. The air density usually is pretty high compared to the average, and Sunday is no different. An Air Density Index of 67 should be enough to help Chris Bassitt limit the Royals. The Under is how to play this one as Kansas City's pitching has been much better on the road this year, with an ERA of 4.27 versus a 4.88 mark at home. Look for a low-scoring affair.

+466 10-5-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS
+185 3-1 IN LAST 4 KC O/U PICKS

Houston 14 @ Minnesota 3 | 06/13 | 6:10 PM UTC

OVER 9.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I like the Over, as I think the Astros are going to get to Michael Pineda without much problem. Pineda's successes this year have come in the form of limiting walks and getting hitters to chase. The Astros have some of the most disciplined batters and should counteract whatever advantage Pineda can get on the mound and be able to make good contact on hittable pitches. I'm sprinkling on the team total for the Astros here too, but I do think Minnesota's lineup will help us get to double digits for the win.

+466 10-5-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS
+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 MIN O/U PICKS

Toronto 18 @ Boston 4 | 06/13 | 5:10 PM UTC

Boston +115

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Taking the home underdog, as I like the Red Sox to score against Robby Ray. After only scoring twice on Saturday, I think Boston will bounce back and take advantage of Ray's .444 expected slugging percentage. This and the high expected velocity of Toronto's starter should equate to a good showing at the plate for the Red Sox. On the other side, the Blue Jays have lost, won and lost in their previous two series to similar opponents in the White Sox and Astros. I think they will follow the same pattern, even though this series doesn't conclude until Monday.

+466 10-5-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS

Colorado 3 @ Cincinnati 10 | 06/12 | 8:10 PM UTC

OVER 9

WIN

ANALYSIS: It's very interesting to not see much market movement on this game. It looks like the Rockies are the sharp side, which makes me like this Over even more. The Great American Ball Park is already the best run-scoring environment that is not located in the mountains; run scoring is 12 percent higher in Cincinnati compared to the league average. The results support these statistics as the Over is 20-9 in Cincinnati this year. I like the odds that it hits again Saturday, especially given the low air density index in the forecast.

+466 10-5-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS
+200 2-0-1 IN LAST 3 CIN O/U PICKS

San Diego 1 @ N.Y. Mets 4 | 06/12 | 8:10 PM UTC

UNDER 7

WIN

ANALYSIS: Joe Musgrove heads to one of the best pitching parks this year to try to slow a Mets offense that has looked much improved over the last week. He's got a bit of a park boost on his side today, as Citi Field is the second worst pure hitting park in baseball over the last three years. I expect Marcus Stroman to continue to benefit from pitching in Queens as well today. Both of these starters have low walk rates, and limiting free passes will be essential for us Saturday. With this park holding an Under record of 15-3-3 this year, I'm on the Under.

+466 10-5-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS
+95 2-1 IN LAST 3 SD O/U PICKS