Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Murray State is a fun team to watch, but it dominated a bad conference in which it was the biggest bad guy on the block. San Francisco is bigger, better, and has played a much more difficult schedule. I don't think Murray State will quite know how to handle a team that has this much of a size advantage against it.
Both of these teams have multiple wins against NCAA Tournament teams and in my opinion represent the best No. 7 and No. 10 seeds in the entire field. But San Francisco has to be docked with the loss of Yauhen Massalski, the team's best interior presence, ahead of a showdown with Murray State big man KJ Williams, the 6-foot-10 OVC Player of the Year who averages 18.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and hits 3s at a 41.1% clip.
The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in its past three games. Take the Racers.
Look for Murray State to have the edge with better offensive sets. San Francisco relies too heavily on its perimeter players, and the offense bogs down at times. Expect 6’-10'' forward KJ Williams to give the Dons big problems, and for the Racers to get the win.
This might be the most interesting matchup of Thursday, but I'm now favoring the Racers, who are 30-2 on the season and haven't lost since Dec. 22 at Auburn, because San Francisco big man and All-WCC first-team pick Yauhen Massalski will not play after reinjuring his knee in practice Monday. He averaged 13.5 points, 9.4 boards and 2.2 blocks per game and also had missed the WCC Tournament semifinal.
It's a shame these dangerous mid-majors have to play in the Round of 64. I see Murray State (30-2) moving on. The Racers made a mockery of the Ohio Valley Conference, destroying top challenger Belmont by 22 and 33 points. The Racers also knocked off NCAA Tournament teams Memphis and Chattanooga. Led by 6-10 K.J. Williams (18.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 54.4 percent shooting), they're a complete team with experience and athleticism. The Dons are legit but could struggle with turnovers here, as Murray State forces turnovers 21 percent of the time. The money is coming in on Murray State -- for good reason.