The Crimson Tide may very well win this game, but Tennessee’s rushing game against Alabama’s questionable defense is what will keep it close. The Volunteers average 228.3 rushing yards per game (15th nationally) and rank sixth in rushing success rate. Georgia rushed for 206 yards against Bama last week, controlling the ball for more than 33 minutes, including a 10-play, 84-yard drive that gave the Bulldogs the lead. The other advantage the Volunteers have is in their pass rush vs. the Alabama line. The Vols average 4.0 sacks per game, second nationally, while Alabama allows 2.7 sacks per game (116th in sacks allowed), a mismatch Tennessee will have to win vs. a mobile Keelon Russell.
I don't look at Alabama's loss to Georgia last week as a negative, but instead a sign of a team that's as worthy of being ranked in the Top 5. With the QB position influx for Tennessee, I expect them to struggle consistently throughout the game vs the Crimson Tide defense.
While most of the attention is focused on Alabama's dynamic offense, its defense has been excellent this season as well. The Crimson Tide held Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi State to at least 16 points below their season averages. Tennessee is averaging 34.7 points per game but that number drops to 27.5 points against Power 4 teams (including 45 points against a lousy Georgia Tech team in Week 2). If Alabama sells out to stop the nation's 7th leading rusher, DeSean Bishop, the Volunteers' offense will come to a halt. To me, the Crimson Tide all but assure themselves an eventual CFP berth with a win on Saturday. Alabama 27, Tennessee 13.
Alabama faces a tough road matchup after a draining three-point loss to Georgia. The Tide will miss top receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, removing their main deep threat on late downs and in the red zone. Tennessee’s defense is among the nation’s best, ranking top five in EPA/play allowed and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 94.8 rating (5.2 net yards per pass). Tennessee’s defensive line wins 82% of its pass-rush battles, and with Alabama’s offensive line posting a 74% pass-block win rate, expect steady pressure in front of a raucous Neyland Stadium crowd. It won’t matter who starts at quarterback for Tennessee. The Volunteers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which should help limit possessions. Alabama has played the tougher schedule, but this line is inflated.
