After starting off the series with 24 and 17 rebounds in the first two games, Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama has been held to 4, 8, 6, and 10 rebounds over the last four games. The Thunder are forcing him away from the rim, and even with two horrible shooting games by OKC, Wemby still hasn't had more than 10 boards. On the assist side, he's had one game with over 3 assists over the same four games, with three total in Games 5 and 6.

We have been riding this trend all series. In the postseason, the team that lost the previous game and is then favored in the next game has a 21-7-1 record in winning the first quarter. In the Spurs-Thunder series, the previous game loser is 5-0-1 in winning the first quarter of the next game. After getting punched early in Game 6, this is a spot for OKC to come out fast in Game 7 at home and set the tone.

A little counterintuitive to fade the MVP in the most important game of the season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t looked comfortable all series, and I don’t see him breaking out offensively in Game 7. SGA has not cleared this line in the Western Conference Finals, and is under in nine of his last 11 games dating back to the Suns series. The Spurs defense has taken him out of his element - normally a 50% shooter on pull-up jumpers, SGA is at 41% in this series. And he’s passing out his drives at a 10% higher rate. The Spurs are comfortable with him facilitating, so I’m leaving assists out. Game 7s infrequently lend to struggling star’s best performances - I’m on the under.

FanDuel. This is why the Thunder keep Alex Caruso’s minutes at bay during the regular season - to unleash him for these exact moments. Caruso is 5/5 to the over on this points line in the playoffs with 24+ minutes, and four of those games came in this series. Everything about this situation screams big minutes for Caruso who played 32 minutes in last season’s Game 7 in the Finals. No Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell means there will continue to be more shots to go around, and the Spurs will continue to leave him open behind the arc.

At least in the NBA I grew up on, young teams had to fail in the playoffs before breaking through and winning a title. Could the young Spurs win tonight at the defending NBA champions? Sure they could, but I don't believe they are "ready" yet for a Game 7 road win at an opponent of this caliber. Perhaps that's no longer a thing where like MJ's young Bulls had to kinda advance a round per year and then lose to Boston or Detroit before figuring things out. No Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell is not great but perhaps a 40-burger coming from struggling Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC hasn't lost B2B games that mattered since early February.

Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) have been ruled out for Game 7. Kenrich Williams wasn’t part of the original rotation in this series, but their injuries have brought him back into the fold. He has played at least 12 minutes in each of the last three games, averaging 8.3 points and 4.7 rebounds along the way. In all three games, he finished with at least 11 combined points and rebounds. He shot 48.4% from the field and 41.0% from behind the arc at home during the regular season, so with the expectation that he plays around 15 minutes Saturday, this over is appealing.

De’Aaron Fox continues to battle through his ankle injury. While it seems to be impacting his shot, it hasn’t hurt him in terms of rebounds and assists. Despite only playing 26 minutes in Thursday’s lopsided win, he still finished with five rebounds and seven assists. After averaging 3.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists against the Thunder during the regular season, he has posted at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in all four playoff games against them. I’ll take this over again.

FanDuel (1.5u). The script has flipped in terms of how I’m viewing the Spurs backcourt situation. Dylan Harper re-emerged in Game 6, and looked like the healthy All-Rookie version of himself. While the scoring was impressive, it’s the rebounding that remains consistent in these playoffs: Harper has now secured at least 4 rebounds in 12/16 full games, including 4/5 in this series. He’s averaging .35 rebound chances per minute (similar to the rest of the playoffs), a 31% increase from the regular season. It’s a little juicy, but with De’Aaron Fox continuing to struggle, Harper should see 24-26 minutes. I have the rookie snatching 5 rebounds, and would bet this at over 4.5 at plus odds (to win one unit).

Ever since his 12-minute cameo in Game 1, Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this prop total five straight times. That includes a pair of blowout losses in which the Thunder shot very poorly. Look for OKC to make more shots at home and for the underrated center to keep setting up his teammates.

After a scintillating Game 6 performance, I like 20-year-old rookie Dylan Harper to again be impactful in Game 7. He's a difference-maker who won't be awed by the moment. And given this is a winner-take-all game, Harper should play close to 30 minutes. In the only close game of the series, Harper played 47 minutes.

I wanted to back Stephon Castle in rebounds, but the 5.5 line is tricky since he’s stopped at five boards in four of the six games. Assists, he’s had anywhere from 6 to 11 this series. Scoring, he’s had 24- and 25-point games, and 13- and 14-point efforts. But put it all together, and he’s contributing. His PRA totals have topped 31 in four of the six games. His PRA totals in the three games at OKC are 31, 35 and 38.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to take over in some capacity. He might score 30, but even if he does, he’s going to be the key facilitator for everything the Thunder are going to do. He’s had 9+ assists in four of six this series, including all three at Paycom Center. In his last four closeout games – two this season, and in the NBA Finals and Western Conference Finals of last season – he’s totaled at least eight assists in all of them.

The points total for Victor Wembanyama in Game 6 was 27.5. He scored 28, but 22 of those came in the first half when the game was still competitive. Wemby scored 21 and 20 in his last two games in OKC. He also had 44 in the first one (albeit in 48 minutes in a double-OT thriller). I would expect he will play as many minutes as possible. There’s a clear line between San Antonio’s success and Wemby’s offensive aggressiveness. This is the biggest game of his career and, like Giannis Antetokounmpo before him, Wemby has the will to deliver.

The Spurs took the opening game in Oklahoma and are now trying to secure a spot in the NBA Finals by clinching the decisive matchup on the road. While the public typically favors the home team in a Game 7, buying into the home court advantage narrative, sportsbooks often respond by inflating the spread beyond what analytics support. Over the past 20 years, NBA road underdogs in Game 7—after winning Game 6 at home—have covered the spread nearly 70% of the time, though outright victories remain low. My model rates OKC as just a -0.5 favorite, underscoring that the current line is inflated. I think the Spurs get it done in a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.