Past Picks
Lens have had themselves the start of another mediocre season. They are sitting 9th in the Ligue 1 table but have the worst defense in the top 10, while coming off a domestic loss and a 3-0 beatdown from Brugge in UCL play. Meanwhile Como possess some of the best attacking three in world football with Nico Paz, Anastasios Douvikas, and Martin Baturina. I expect Como to win and to show that Serie A is still putting up a fight.
This an injury play as Napoli is shredded by them, led by leading domestic scorer Kevin De Bruyne, who isn't officially out now but doubtful. A few other guys are in there and a lot more already ruled out. One Italian newspaper has the translated headline regarding the visitors and stretched so thin as "Napoli, you need to suffer!" Without a point through three league phase games, Porto pretty much has to have a W here and is in good injury shape. The Dragons have lost only four of their 20 home matches against Italian clubs and unbeaten in the past six (four wins). None of Porto's last 11 league phase home matches ended in a draw. I'd love DNB but it's around -280.
Real Betis has won three straight games in the Champions League for the first time, but the competition wasn't all that great -- I mean it's the Champions League but there are tiers to that too. Dortmund has lost only two of its last 24 home Champions League matches (15 wins) -- 3-2 to Barcelona in December 2024 and 2-0 to Inter back in January. It has won four straight vs. Spanish clubs at home, though. Serhou Guirassy already has four UCL goals this season but if there's a concern it's that no one else has scored yet. The model has the Germans in a 3.0-1.2 rout. Cool.
I like Club Brugge +0.5. PSV have won just two of their last five matches and kept only three clean sheets in their last 14. Brugge's attack that has scored 28 goals in its last 10 matches, should give PVS fits. Brugge have won 12 of 14 matches since August and scored at least three goals in four of their last five. What I really like is Brugge’s ability to attack in transition. PSV’s aggressive fullbacks leave space behind, and Brugge have the pace to exploit it. Nicolò Tresoldi has four Champions League goals, while Hans Vanaken and Carlos Forbs provide creativity behind him. Brugge already beat Inter 4-3 in Milan. I’m comfortable backing them to get a result in Eindhoven.
RB Leipzig have struggled against elite opponents this season. They lost 4-1 to Real Madrid and 4-1 to Como in the Champions League, and they recently suffered a 6-1 defeat to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. That doesn’t bode well for their chances against Man City, who have fired in nine goals in three Champions League matches so far. Enzo Maresca’s men suffered a disappointing defeat to Brighton at the weekend, so they’ll be desperate to bounce back in Leipzig. They beat AEK Athens 5-1 in their last Champions League game, despite resting most of their key players, and they could rack up a similar scoreline against Leipzig.
Arsenal should have far too much quality for Slavia Prague to handle when the teams clash in the Czech capital this week. The Gunners are top of the Premier League table, with eight wins from nine games this season. They’ll be full of confidence after beating Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield on Sunday. Mikel Arteta’s men are unbeaten in their last 15 Champions League group stage matches, and they were runners-up in this competition last season. Slavia Prague have zero wins, one draw, and two defeats from three Champions League games so far, and they look out of their depth.
I’m backing Real Madrid to cover the -1.5 goal handicap against AEK Athens. AEK have been downright awful defensively, losing three of their last four matches by multiple goals. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have started to click. They’ve won three straight Champions League matches, scoring 10 goals over that stretch. That’s an average of 3.33 goals per match. The biggest concern for AEK is their ability to withstand Madrid’s attacking pressure for 90 minutes. Even if the Greek side keeps things competitive early, Madrid have the attacking quality to turn a one-goal advantage into a comfortable multi-goal win. AEK conceded 10 goals across their last three defeats, while Madrid have won six straight matches across all competitions, scoring at least three goals in four of them.
People keep telling me that this Manchester United side has to turn things around eventually. I understand this logic, but if you've watched them at all this season, you know that things keep getting worse for United. The team, the fans, the manager, the ownership, everyone is losing passion watching this team struggle week in and week out. Meanwhile, Roma have one of the best goal-scorers in Europe in Donyell Malen. I believe Roma win this outright, but DNB at plus money I can't ignore..
I love this Bayern Munich squad and I genuinley hope I'm wrong here, but there's too many injuries for me not to bet on Atleti in some fashion. This weekend Bayern Munich lost three starters to injuries with Saibari, Gnabry and Olise all exiting the pitch. I know that Bayern are giants of the group stage but those names are too big to ignore. I expect Atleti to at least share the spoils.
How can you not expect Roma to get something out of this match? Michael Carrick vs. Gian Piero Gasperini is the biggest coaching mismatch between two big clubs I’ve seen. United is also on a dreadful run, and their lone recent win came against one of the Champions League’s worst teams in Sabah. Worse, they’ve conceded nine goals over their last three matches while scoring just once. Roma isn’t a model of defensive excellence, but they keep getting results. Their only loss this season came in a 4-3 thriller against Real Madrid, where Madrid needed three goals after the 82nd minute to erase a 3-1 deficit. Until United start winning, they’re an auto-fade for me against anyone with a pulse.
I’m backing PSG on the goal handicap here. This team is playing some fantastic football, winning nine straight matches, including victories over Manchester City and Barcelona, two of Europe’s best. Luis Enrique has his boys rolling, but what I really like is their dominance in midfield. Whether it’s João Neves, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz or some combination of the three, PSG can control matches. I also have to highlight Achraf Hakimi, who has been playing out of his mind. There are some injury concerns in attack, with Kvaratskhelia out and Désiré Doué nursing an injury. But PSG have so much attacking depth that I’m not overly concerned. I think they win this one comfortably.
I’m taking over 2.5 goals despite the juicy price tag. Bayern have scored 38 goals in their last 10 matches, including 10 in three UCL matches. They’re averaging 21 shots and 8.3 on target in Europe, with their last 10 matches clearing this total. Tactically, Bayern’s high press and aggressive fullbacks create chances but leave space behind for Atlético to exploit in transition. That’s where Julián Álvarez comes in. One of the best attackers in transition. Atlético have scored in 10 straight matches and won four consecutive home games. They’re averaging 18 shots and 1.89 xG over their last five. My concern is Atlético’s defensive structure, but Bayern’s attacking volume makes it difficult to trust a low-scoring match.
I’m buying low on Inter Milan, even without Lautaro Martínez. His absence hurts, but Marcus Thuram and Francesco Pio Esposito are capable of carrying the attack. Feyenoord haven't won in three matches and were embarrassed 5-1 by Barcelona before losing 1-0 to Real Betis in Champions League play. They're averaging just 0.77 xG while allowing 1.75 xGA per European match. Inter's wingbacks should create problems for Feyenoord's back four, particularly Federico Dimarco attacking wide areas. Inter also beat Feyenoord twice last season, including 2-0 in Rotterdam. Despite Martínez being sidelined, I still believe Inter are the significantly better side, and this price has more value than some would suggest.
PSG should extend their winning streak to 10 games when they face Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica. The European champions have made a flying start to their group stage campaign, beating Slovan Bratislava 6-1, Man City 4-2, and Barcelona 4-2. They should have enough firepower to win this game comfortably. Villarreal are a decent team, but they've lost two out of three Champions League matches so far, and they could ultimately be outclassed.
I’m taking over 3.5 goals in this one. Galatasaray have scored 2.3 goals per league match while generating 2.36 xG and 21.8 shots per game. They’ve cleared 3.5 goals in 70% of their league matches, including 60% at home. Stuttgart aren't exactly defensive juggernauts, conceding 1.88 goals and 2.40 xGA per league match. That jumps to 2.47 xGA away from home. They've also kept just one clean sheet in eight league matches. What I really like is the attacking volume. These teams combine for 38.4 shots and 13.6 shots on target per league match. With both sides capable of scoring multiple goals, I see plenty of opportunities for this to turn into a shootout.