3 Expert Picks
There is money to be made on betting the under. ...
Lecce have the worst attack in Italy. ...
This spread is too much for this Juventus squad. ...
Como continue to be the biggest breath of fresh air in the entirety of Serie A this season as the club continues to climb heights that very few people expected them to climb. The team is currently sitting in a UCL spot as they are fourth on the Serie A table, but don't have near enough room to slow things down. This is a team that equal on games played with clubs like Juventus and Roma, control their own destiny. They are far superior to Pisa, and while Pisa wallows in relegation, Como's strikers continue to impress. I expect Pisa to win this game, comfortably, by more than one goal, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they run up the score on Pisa.
Don't know much about history. Don't know much biology. Don't know much about a science book. Don't know much about Italy, either. But this feels quite cheap for DNB on Parma. Yes, I know it's still pretty high but shouldn't it be around -350ish? Again, standing in the table is not everything, but Parma is home and 10 points better than Cremonese. I guess my biggest concern is not really knowing if a "new manager bump" exists in Serie A. That's the case for the visitors with Marco Giampaolo having taken over this week. The side has 11 defeats in 15 games without a win.
Napoli should pick up a vital away win against Cagliari, who are on a six-game winless streak in Serie A. The Sardinians low on confidence right now, and they could struggle to deal with a strong Napoli team. Napoli have a solid away record, with eight wins from 15 games on the road, and they should have too much firepower for Cagliari to handle.
Parma is not a team we generally talk about when we talk about the Italian clubs really performing, but man do they look good so far in 2026. They are currently on an unbeaten run over their last five matches. During that streak, we saw them beat Verona, take down Milan, sneak ahead of Bologna, and draw against Fiorentina. This is a team that is no longer being written off as a free three points, and I'm not expecting a Torino side, that is limping to the finish line, to beat them.
I am definitely still learning my way around Draw No Bet. I saw this, and I was curious what DNB might look like with the overall money line at around -170. DNB is priced -550. Yikes. I wouldn't play that number even if it were MJ's Tune Squad (did you really think they would lose?) against the Monstars. Napoli is 23 points better in the Serie A table. The Parthenopeans can't win the league but also can't afford to not get three points here in pushing for a top-four finish. Kevin De Bruyne will return from a long injury absence. Many of our books have -1 so perhaps some value here even at the number. Torino has taken one point in its past four visits.
Not really clear why Udinese is getting the +0.25 at home when it sits eight points ahead of Fiorentina in the Serie A table. I mean, thank you, I'll take it. Granted, the hosts aren't playing great and the Florence club eyes consecutive Serie A away fixtures for the first time since November 2024. But that we don't even have to worry about draw? And surely Udinese will be eyeing some "horse head in the bed"-type retribution for a 5-1 whooping at Fiorentina on Dec. 21, but the Little Zebras (fabulous) were down to 10 men just seven minutes in. This time, Udinese has had a week off to prepare, while the visitors played Thursday in the UEFA Conference League.
Of the teams fighting to get out of the Serie A drop zone, the most likely to escape looks Fiorentina, which shouldn't have been in that predicament in the first place. La Viola have made up the ground caused by the slow start that got Stefano Pioli pink-slipped behind the bench in early November, just completing a promising February that included an unbeaten Serie A mark, plus advancing in the UEFA Conference League, with striker Moise Kean now back in form after his own slow break this season, and having scored in each of La Viola's last three Serie A matches. Meanwhile, another unremarkable season for Udinese, which was victimized by Fiorentina 5-1 on December 21 when Kean scored a brace. Play Fiorentina ML
Fiorentina after an abysmal start to the season, have really started to turn things around. The club won their last two Serie A matches taking down Pisa, which isn't that impressive, but also Como on the road. They've also scored against clubs like Napoli, Lazio, and Torino in recent weeks. Not to mention, when these two teams played in December, Fiorentina stomped Udinese 5-1. Fiorentina is fixing their form, while Udinese has been falling a part. I think Fiorentina will win outright, but I like this DNB line.
How Pisa would wish for some of the mid-table stability of Bologna. Into March now, Pisa (and Verona) look hopelessly adrift in the drop zone, nine points from safety as the leaning tower might begin to lean a bit more with a quick return to Serie B looking inevitable. With only 20 goals in 26 matches, and a whopping -23 goal difference, it's no wonder Pisa have just one win. Draws are another story, with a Serie A-high 12 of those, yet Bologna are a serious sidethat has advanced to the last 16 of the Europa League, and a legit target man in Santiago Castro, on seven goals. Three points also moves Bologna up to 8th in the table. Play Bologna ML
Inter Milan will be desperate to bounce back from their humiliating 2-1 defeat to Bodø/Glimt on Tuesday night. The Nerazzurri crashed out of the Champions League following that defeat, so they can now focus 100% on winning Seri A. They're 10 points clear of their closest rivals at the top of the table after winning their last seven league matches. Inter beat Genoa 2-1 on the road earlier this season, and they should win by a heavier margin when the teams renew hostilities this weekend.
Beneath runaway leader Inter, Serie A looks quite a grab-bag exiting February. Cesc and his Como are currently in 6th but just five points out of a Champions League place after reminding last week they weren’t about to disappear from the chase in that rousing 2-0 win at Juve, yet another clean sheet (the 13th of the campaign!) kept by French keeper Jean Butez, as Como’s goal difference of +22 ranks behind only Inter in Serie A. Lecce has far different concerns...survival, for one, involved in a torrid battle with Fiorentina and Cremonense, all on 24 points, straddling the drop zone, with Lecce having the extra burden of being the lowest-scoring team in the league (just 17 goals in 26 matches). Play Como on Spread
Parma sits three points higher in the table entering Friday's Serie A match. The hosts have won three in a row if not playing that well at home overall this season. Cagliari is winless in its past three and didn't score in any. It has won just two of its past 12 away and allowed at least one goal in eight straight roadies. Cagliari has a lot more player worries including defender Yerry Minna suspended and midfielder Liza Minnelli ... err Luca Mazzitelli (two goals, two assists) out injured. Parma gets back key defender Alessandro Circati from suspension. It lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in September. I lean something like a 1-1 draw here but maybe we get lucky. Under 2.5 is too expensive.