Past Picks
The Juventus defense has been formidable in the early weeks of the new Serie A season. They beat Frosinone 1-0 on the road in their opener, before clinching a 2-0 victory over Parma on Saturday. AC Milan have also looked solid in defense under new manager Ruben Amorim. They beat Torino 2-1 in their opener, but Torino scored in the 94th minute with their only shot on target in the entire game. The Rossoneri then beat Venezia 2-0 in their second game. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in the last three games between these teams, and it has also landed in six of their last seven matches.
I have been and will continue to sing the praises of AS Roma the future winners of the Scudetto and Donyell Malen the future Capocannoniere winner. I'm going to take Roma ML against any team in Serie A except for Inter Milan if it's better than -150 odds. You can take their 1.5 TT if you prefer or Malen ATGS to get better value but this Roma team is a wagon and we need to all get on it ASAP!
Roma have made a blistering start to the new season, beating Lecce 4-0 in their opener and Fiorentina 4-0 on Monday. Donyell Malen is on fire, with five goals in two games so far, and fellow forward Paulo Dybala is also improving. Roma manager Gian Piero Gasperini will now face Atalanta, his former club, on Matchday 3, and it promises to be an intriguing game. Atalanta aren’t quite as gung-ho as they were during Gasperini’s tenure, but they’re still often involved in high-scoring matches, so over 2.5 goals looks sensible here.
Como should extend their unbeaten start to the new Serie A season when they face Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Cesc Fabregas’ men drew 1-1 with Udinese in their opener, before securing an impressive 2-1 victory over Napoli last weekend. Both of those games were on the road, so they won’t be daunted by the prospect of heading to Genoa. They beat Genoa 2-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in April, which could give them a psychological advantage. Genoa have made a poor start to the season, losing 2-0 to Napoli and 1-0 to Lazio, and they could be outclassed here.
Maurizio Sarri comes in to manage Atalanta, and I think he turns this team into a much more controlled, defensive unit. They’ll use possession to dictate matches, avoid opening themselves up and make opponents work for every decent chance. On the other side, I’m not sold on this Bologna attack at all. Losing Santiago Castro in the transfer market was a massive blow, and I don’t see enough consistent finishing in this squad to scare Atalanta. This has the makings of a 2-0 or 1-1 type of match. We might even get a 0-0. It could get sweaty late, but under 2.5 goals is the right side for me.
Gian Piero Gasperini has built a monster with this Roma side. They defend extremely well, and the attack with Paulo Dybala and Donyell Malen is starting to hum. Lecce is a difficult place to play, so I’m not getting too aggressive here, but I do like a small wager on Roma -1. It also gives us some protection. If Roma wins by one, we get our money back. There’s also an in-game angle if Lecce scores first. They’ll likely drop into a low block and defend the lead, which should create plenty of Roma pressure and corner opportunities. Roma will attack relentlessly, and I’d expect them to find a way back into the match.
CBS Sports Network game. Lazio looked strong in winning the season opener 1-0 at Bologna behind a goal from summer signing Davide Frattesi. Genoa looked about as bad as any Serie A team with a 2-0 home loss to Napoli. Lazio has won the past six in this series by a combined score of 13-2. Genoa had only four away wins last season.
Yes, I tend to pick Sassuolo matches because it reminds me of shampoo and a Phil Collins song. Hey whatever works man. Home opener and that's something I always like to play but I have flipped from DNB to the total. Torino didn't look particularly good in its opener, a 2-1 loss to AC Milan. The Sassys, meanwhile, lost their top goalscorer from last season in Andrea Pinamonti to Lazio. A few other guys are out. Pinamonti! Amore! Beefaroni! Love Italy. Welp, summer is officially over now. Gots to work. See you in April wife ...
Right now the over 2.5 goal line is set to -120. I love this line, and I would be okay taking Roma over 2.5 goals by themselves if you want some plus numbers in front of your wager. Roma are one of the clubs most motivated in all of Serie A going into the final matchday. While some clubs are going to be already checked out, Roma will not be. A win here get's them a top four finish, and they couldn't have asked for a better opponent in a must win game than Verona. Verona are already relegated and have the second worst defense in Serie A. I expect Roma to not only win this match, but dominate from start to finish.
Verona are already relegated. This last match is irrelevant, and no matter how well or poorly they play, nothing will change. While Verona's season is already over, this is the most important match of the year for Roma. Roma are sitting fourth on the table, and a win here guarantee's them a spot in Champions League next season. They need to win this game, and I don't expect Gasperini and his squad to hold back against a mentally and physically defeated Verona side. This match could very well be 3-0 at halftime. Look at Donyell Malen to have an impact on this game as he continues to tear up Serie A.
It's easy on paper to say "Como is ranked 5th on the table and Cremonese is ranked 18th, so this one should be easy", but it's deeper than that. Como are currently two points behind Roma on the table. If Como win and Roma loses, Como will find themselves finishing in a Champions League qualifying position, so they'll want to press for goals. On the other side, Cremonese is currently in the relegation zone and are one point behind Lecce. This means a win for Cremonese could be the difference between relegation and survival. Cremonese's defense isn't good enough to stop Como from scoring, so they'll have to press for multiple goals. I think over 3.5 goals will hit as well.
Juventus need a win and some luck to qualify for the Champions League. There’s no way Torino want Juventus to win the Derby della Mole in their building. Especially if it means they have a chance to ruin Juventus’ season. The last time Juventus beat Torino by more than one goal at the Stadio Olimpico was in 2016. I like taking Torino spread; if Juventus win, it’s by no more than one goal.
Cremonese are currently sitting 18th on the table and are in the relegation zone. They are, however, just one point behind passing Lecce and avoiding the drop. They got a bit lucky in their last win over Pisa when Pisa had two men sent off with reds, but Cremonese has shown some heart in the final stages of the season. There is a chance they avoid the drop and stay in the top flight, but only if they manage to take points off Udinese. Udinese are the better team and are in better form, but these last couple games for them are pointless. I expect Cremonese to pickup at least a draw in this matchup.
This may be the best situational spot to bet on Roma this season. Lazio just played the Coppa Italia final against Inter on Wednesday, and now they must turn around and play again in Rome on Sunday. They are ninth in the table and mathematically out of the race for Europe, so this feels like a great opportunity to rest some of their senior players. They are also facing the hottest team in Serie A. Roma have won four of their last five and are unbeaten during that stretch. This is also their final home match of the season, and they will want to win both remaining matches to give themselves the best chance at qualifying for the Champions League.
High number but our only -0.5 on the board -- the rest are all at -1. Napoli, sitting second in Serie A, has just two home losses in its past 25. It did lose at Bologna earlier this season but also beat the team, 2-0, in Saudi Arabia (???) near Christmas in the Italian Supercoppa. Bologna has a single win in its past six in all competitions and has not scored in the past four. Maybe U2.5 isn't a bad idea, either.