Past Picks
Out of all 20 clubs participating in Serie A this season, there is only one club averaging half a goal or less scored per match. That team is the host, Parma. Parma is struggling to find their footing after a less than stellar off season transfer window. Parma is relying on striker Mateo Pellegrino to find goals, and he doesn't have the support cast he needs to find goals. AC Milan need a win with the league race as close as it is, and expect them to step up, even on the road.
First-ever meeting between these sides in Serie A -- they were both in Serie B last season, and Pisa won the home meeting 2-1 in May. But Pisa is yet to win in 10 Serie A games and has not scored a single goal in five home matches. It has drawn three in a row at home, four straight overall and six times this season. Only Atalanta (7) has drawn more games. Pisa hasn't won a Serie A match since 1991. Cremonese sits seven spots higher in the table and has gotten at least a draw in four of six away matches. Jamie Vardy has two goals in his last three games.
Pisa are one of the three teams left in Serie A play who 10 matches into the season, are yet to find a single win. While they are struggling to win, the have managed to become a bit of a draw specialist, with their last four matches straight ending with no victor. This is a team that either plays up or plays down to their competition, but never seems to have enough to claim all three points. While I wouldn't be shocked to see another draw, I can't ignore a better Cremonese side on the spread.
Verona hasn't been able to do much of anything right thus far...especially when it comes to scoring goals. Only five of those in nine matches, missing last year's top scorer Casper Tengstedt, now at Feyenoord. It's no wonder Verona is rooted in the Serie A drop zone. With Verona already at -9 goals thru nine weeks, the chance Inter can extend this scoreline looks promising, the offense back in gear for a 3-0 thrashing of Fiorentina at midweek after last weekend's bitter 30 loss at Napoli. Note that vet midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu has now scored goals (four total) in the past three games. Play Inter Milan on Spread
The Luciano Spalletti era begins at Juve in the wake of Igotr Tudor's dismissal earlier this week. Tudor's dismissal, on the heels of an eight-game winless run, was not a surprise, and Juve did bounce back to snap that streak at midweek with a 3-1 win over Udinese under interim coach Massimo Brambilla. This won't be an easy test, however, as Cremonese has proved one of the surprises of the season in Serie A, losing just once in nine, and proving draw specialists, playing level five times already. Capable target man Federico Bonazzoli has scored four times already, with a brace midweek in the 2-0 win over Genoa. Play Cremonese on Spread
We hit our Serie A play Tuesday but there isn't actually a home dog Wednesday, which has been my preference to play. I actually know a little about Como as Sports Illustrated had a really good longform story on it not too long ago. Pics of the stadium location are truly breathtaking. This ML seems a bit cheap as I Lariani are sixth in the table with 13 points and are unbeaten in five, while Hellas Verona 17th and yet to win with just four total goals scored. Following the return of Assane Diao, who made his first appearance of the season over the weekend, Como will also have Jesús RodrÃguez available after serving a three-match suspension. Likely only a draw beats us.
Will try something different on Tuesday from Serie A and take the better road team getting the +0.25 whereas I usually prefer the home club getting such. AC Milan is third in the table with 17 points and Atlanta seventh with 12 -- the Black and Blues haven't lost yet in league, they have two wins and six draws (four straight). AC Milan is unbeaten in eight seven in all competitions. I'd really like Under 3.5 if offered and will play tomorrow if get it. Four straight Atalanta games have had two or fewer goals scored. Since the start of October, the Nerazzurri have only scored twice.
With the leakiest defense in Serie A (13 goals allowed), Torino might be stumbling onto something for Sunday when gifted foot-of-the-table Genoa at the Olimpico Grande. Genoa simply can't seem to find the net, just three goals scored in seven Serie A matches, blanked four time already, and off of a nil-nil vs. equally-sluggish Parma last week. That's the second nil-nil of the season for Genoa and might see another of those on Sunday. Though, more likely to score what would probably be a lone goal looks Toronto, which pushed one past Serie A leader Napoli when scoring an upset last week, and 3-3 vs. Lazio prior. Still, note that only four outfield players have scored in Torino's seven matches to date. Play Torino-Genoa Under
Since a slow start, Inter has hit overdrive for Cristian Chivu, unbeaten in eight and on four straight wins in Serie A (not to mention flying at 3-0 in the Champions League after the 4-0 romp past Union St._Gilloise at midweek). The Nerazzuri are getting goals from the old guard (Dumfries, Lautaro, and Calhanoglu all scored vs USG) but there's also new blood in 21-year old French striker Ange Yoan-Bonny, with either a goal or an assist (sometimes both!) in the last four matches. Meanwhile, Antonio Conte's Napoli is suddenly wobbling, laid out by a PSV Eindhoven haymaker 6-2 at midweek in the Champions League after Torino closed the gates in a 1-0 loss for Conte last weekend. Play Inter Milan on Money Line
Now that we have a bit of a form chart in Serie A, we can more easily identify teams that present some real opportunities on the totals side...unders in particular. Meet Parma, which has scored goals in just two of its seven Serie A matches to date, and in just one of its last five league matches. Surely, Carlos Cuesta is looking with great envy at Inter Milan as it now features Ange-Yoan Bonny, who was Parma's leading scorer last term but now reunited with his former Parma manager Cristian Chivu. Meanwhile, Cesc Fabregas and his visiting Como are well-equipped to grind out a 1-0 type of result, though a nil-nil here wouldn't surprise. Play Parma-Como Under.
Como are one of the most exciting clubs in Europe at the moment and possess one of the most exciting youngsters. Como are entering this matchup after taking down Serie A giants Juventus 2-0 at home. They've also taking points off big sides like Atalanta, Fiorentina and Lazio. This team, led by Nico Paz could very well finish in a top European spot after just two seasons back in Serie A, and they'll be looking at this weakened Parma side to find another big three points. This shouldn't be plus odds, but I won't complain about a nice cash betting on the more in form side!
AC Milan are in a tremendous position in Serie A, and a big reason they are is due to their lack of congested schedule. While other teams like Napoli and Inter are having to deal with Champions League play, Milan doesn't have to worry about that. After their last season, they qualified for no additional European competitions, and are entirely focused on Serie A domination. Pisa are 20th on the table and seem to be drowning in Serie A play. I expect AC Milan to win this one, but multiple goals (Look at Pulisic ATGS here as well!)
Cremonese are one of the clubs we like to bring up when talking about teams that struggle massively on the road, but are a completely different squad when playing at home. Cremonese are currently sitting 10th on the Serie A table, and are undefeated when playing at home. They also have lost only a single match at home over their last 10 across all competitions. I have little faith in Udinese who were just battered by Sassuolo, and should have lost to Cagliari after that. Take the spread, and sprinkle the ML for the hosts.
Where are the goals going to come from in this match? This looks the best bet for nil-nil all weekend not just in Serie A, but all of Europe, as neither Parma nor Genoa have any idea how they should be celebrating shots on goal, much less actual scores. Each has played six matches thus far, and each has scored a paltry three goals. Parma in particular must be looking longingly at departed striker Ange Yoan-Bonny, last year's leading goal scorer now doing his thing for Inter (and scoring the only game in Saturday's win at Roma). Play Genoa-Parma Under
Roma has started quickly in Serie A but a quick look at the fixture list suggests that things have broken very well for Gian Piero Gasperini. The toughest challenge faced by Roma, in the Europa vs. Lille two weeks ago, resulted in a 1-0 setback. Meanwhile, after a slow start in Serie A with early losses to Udinese and Juve, Inter has hit overdrive, winning five straight (including a pair of Champions League successes vs. Ajax and Slavia Prague), as the pressure has lessened on Cristian Chivu. Familiar faces Lautaro and Marcus Thuram are consistently on the scoresheet, and young frontliner Ange-Yoan Bonny flashed real upside in his starting debut vs. Cremonese, with a goal and a hat-trick of assists. Play Inter on ML


