Oh look, another even money line for goals in a Fiorentina match. Don't mind if I do! We took the over against Napoli, and Cagliari, and Bologna, so I see no reason not to take it once again against Torino. Fiorentina have now seen BTTS hit in their last six matches straight across all competitions. This is a team fighting from the depths of relegation, and the books haven't caught on to their shift in play style. Take BTTS and take over 2.5 goals for Fiorentina matches.
This is a must-win game for Napoli. The Italian champions are already 9 points behind title rivals Inter Milan, and they cannot afford to lose any more ground. Their away form has been inconsistent this season: six wins, one draw, and five defeats from 12 games. However, Genoa tend to struggle at home. They’ve lost five of their 12 home matches this season, as they don’t have a great deal of firepower in attack. Napoli are unbeaten in their last seven games against Genoa, including a 2-1 win earlier this season, and they should have enough quality to edge this clash.
Last week I took over 2.5 goals in the Napoli v Fiorentina match, and my argument was that this team is missing too many key players, so we should see Fiorentina score. We saw Napoli pull off the 2-1 win, but man did they look shaky defensively. A better team than Fiorentina would have put in 3+ goals. While Genoa isn't much better than Fiorentina, I'm going to continue to bet on goals until Savic is back in the goal for Napoli. Genoa brought out goals in Lazio, so they can do it against anyone.
These two teams have played a combined 46 matches this season, and only in three of those matches has Pisa or Verona picked up a win. These are the two teams that are bottom of the table both sitting with just 14 points. The reason, I'm taking Pisa on the spread though, is because this team is obsessed with draws. They have a league most 11 draws over their 23 matches. When Pisa plays weak opposition, they play for high scoring draws. We've seen three of their last eight matches end 2-2, and I think we see a similar scoreline.
Different week but the same writeup from me! I see Pisa playing on the road, I'm betting on goals, regardless of their opponent. Pisa currently have the highest hit rate of over 2.5 goals when playing on the road in the league hitting in 73% of their away fixtures this season. Hellas Verona, have one of the highest hit rates when paying at home in 64% of their home fixtures. I love BTTS, and I love over 2.5 goals in this match. I'm shocked it's almost +140.
Roma are currently the best defensive side in Italy, and one of the best defensive sides in Europe. The club has conceded a mere 13 goals over their 22 matches, and have only scored 27 across those same games. This is a team that prides themselves on playing authentic Italian football, regardless of how not exciting that might be for the viewers. This team has now gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, and regularly find themselves in 2-0/1-0 matches. Udinese will press them, but I think they'll struggle to crack this Roma backline.
Roma have been a force to be reckoned with under the tutelage of Gian Piero Gasperini. This team that normally excels at home, has been doing that, but have also been showing a new level of perseverance during their travels. They currently have the second best away record in Serie A, only behind Inter Milan. Roma have beaten seven clubs on the road already this season, and with Udinese being better on the road than at home, I see Roma getting their 8th away victory.
Juventus made a decision in Champions League to rest the majority of their best players when fighting against Monaco. That match ended 0-0 and now people are saying "Juventus doesn't have it anymore" not realizing they didn't start Yildiz, Adzic, and David. Now, they'll be at full strength to continue their domestic dominance. This is the club that just a week ago embarrassed Napoli, and I have them winning this match by multiple goals against a Parma side who is struggling. Kenan Yildiz TSOA will be worth a play as always, and look for him to link up with Jonathan David.
The wagering public shouldn't need any more convincing about Cesc Fabregas and his Como side, which has piled up 12 goals in its current three-game win streak. That counts a 3-1 midweek win at Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia, as well as last weekend's 6-0 romp by the lake over Torino and preceding 3-0 win over Lazio in Rome. Fabregas is especially enjoying young midfield ace Nico Paz opening eyes after three goals in the last three matches, while French goalie Jean Butez now has eleven Serie A clean sheets after the whitewash of Torino. Atalanta will be a tougher test but Fabregas takes heart from the 1-1 draw at Bergamo on October 4. Play Como on ML
Como at home for me in the past has been the kind of match where I like to bet on unders, however, the form of both sides right now is deadly. Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata have looked incredible for Como, as the duo are racking up goals left and right. Atalanta, to not be outdone, have Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere have also been having a fantastic season. While Como matches at home tend to be cagey, I'm backing goals with two of the best front lines in Serie A clashing under the lights.
Napoli were knocked out of Champions League in the last matchday of the group stage after conceding three goals to Chelsea at home. While this is a brutal loss in itself, it highlighted the ongoing issues with this squad. Their list of injuries is too signifcant for this team to hold their own defensively. Napoli can only win matches right now with their attack. Expect players like McTominay to push for goals, knowing they'll concede against almost anyone right now. I like BTTS and the over here.
Different week, same writeup! Pisa are at home, I bet under 2.5 goals. Nothing fancy here, no crazy, out of this world analysis. Pisa have hit over 2.5 goals in only 9% of their home matches and in 73% of their away matches. When you see Pisa playing at home, you bet the under, and the reverse on the road. Pisa can't score at home, and Sassuolo are in awful goal scoring form. I wouldn't be shocked if this ends 0-0.
Will do a half for this Friday Serie A matchup as I don't really think it wins, but the Under 2.5 total is super pricy and this is obviously a solid price. It might win. In four of its past five in all competitions, Lazio has either scored one or been clean sheeted -- am I the first to verb that? Genoa has totaled two goals in its past three away domestic matches. I'm sure it ends 1-1 or the like but maybe we get lucky.
Manager Maurizio Sarri and his men have been having a rough go at things over recent weeks. Lazio have picked up just one win over their last five matches which came against a poor Hellas Verona side. Outside of issues on the pitch, the manager has also been struggling to find positive things to say about his squad in media interviews. Meanwhile, Genoa have been in fantastic form, having taking points off their last five opponents in a row, and finding eight goals over those five matches.
Antonio Conte has to worry about the Champions League, with his Napoli at risk of missing the knockout phase entirely if it can't get a win on Wednesday vs. Conte's old Chelsea. There's also Serie A, with Gli Azzurri needing three points to stay within earshot of leaders Inter, but also to remain in third place in a heated battle for Champions League qualification next season. A result at Juve is almost mandatory, but hardly out of reach, as Conte's men won the first match December 7 at the Maradona by a 2-1 count thanks to a Rasmus Højlund brace. With Juve proving hugely wasteful last weekend in a loss to Cagliari, we hardly trust the Old Lady. Play Napoli on Spread