Inter leads Serie A by a fair amount but without two key guys today in leading scorer Lautaro Martinez (16 domestic goals) and defenseman Yann Aurel Bisseck (two goals and an assist). Como (se llama) is fighting for European qualification next season and unbeaten in eight if my math is right. That includes a scoreless home draw vs. Inter in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals on March 3. More than fine with a similar score.
Napoli should extend their winning streak to six games when they take on Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this weekend. Antonio Conte’s men moved up to second in the Serie A table after beating AC Milan 1-0 on Monday. They’re 7 points behind league leaders Inter Milan, but they’re still in with a chance of winning the title, so they’ll be fired-up for this game. Parma have lost seven out of 15 home games this season, and they could be outclassed by this resurgent Napoli team.
We're going to walk a bit of a tightrope for this match. I do believe that AC Milan will win this match. I do not believe, however, that they will win it by more than one goal. Udinese have done an incredible job in recent months of keeping matches close against the best teams in Italy. They've played Como, Juventus, Atalanta, Bologna, Roma, Inter and Lazio. This team has covered this spread in their last 15 matches. Even though AC Milan are the better team and will be motivated, I'm not fading a Udinese side who is continuously showing up.
Juventus is the better team here for sure and are heavily motivated as they try to climb their way to a top four position, however, I don't believe they win by multiple goals. Genoa are in fantastic form right now, and if you look at the last six matches against between these two sides, Juventus has only covered this spread a single time. I expect Genoa to keep this close, and wouldn't be surprised if Juventus ends up winning 2-1/1-0.
Atalanta's form as of late has been blowing very hot or cold. This is a club that has shown that they are capable of incredible feats of strength and are capable of fighting the best clubs in Italy one week, then the next they are limping past Verona. While it's tricky to bet on a team like this, sometimes it's just easier to fade their opponents. Lecce are in the relegation zone, and a big reason is because they have the worst attack in Italy. Only 21 goals scored over 30 matches. They might be able to slow down Atalanta, but I don't believe that will matter.
Am sitting +200 in soccer's return from the international break so let's keep going Sunday. Serie A leader Inter is not losing at home to AS Roma, in my opinion. Just whether it will be a draw or not. Draw Not Bet not an option (non-parlay anyways) at -400.
This is one of those really tough matchups where we have a pitch loaded with high-scoring attacking talents, but I don't believe that will equate to goals in this fixture. Both Roma and Inter have incredibly tough to break backlines as these are two of the best defensive units in the league. Roma have only allowed 23 goals, and Inter, 24 goals. Not to mention out of the last six times they've played each other, under 2.5 goals has hit in five of the six, with the last three ending 1-0. I'm expecting a low scoring win for Inter.
Como continue to be the biggest breath of fresh air in the entirety of Serie A this season as the club continues to climb heights that very few people expected them to climb. The team is currently sitting in a UCL spot as they are fourth on the Serie A table, but don't have near enough room to slow things down. This is a team that equal on games played with clubs like Juventus and Roma, control their own destiny. They are far superior to Pisa, and while Pisa wallows in relegation, Como's strikers continue to impress. I expect Pisa to win this game, comfortably, by more than one goal, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they run up the score on Pisa.
Don't know much about history. Don't know much biology. Don't know much about a science book. Don't know much about Italy, either. But this feels quite cheap for DNB on Parma. Yes, I know it's still pretty high but shouldn't it be around -350ish? Again, standing in the table is not everything, but Parma is home and 10 points better than Cremonese. I guess my biggest concern is not really knowing if a "new manager bump" exists in Serie A. That's the case for the visitors with Marco Giampaolo having taken over this week. The side has 11 defeats in 15 games without a win.
Napoli should pick up a vital away win against Cagliari, who are on a six-game winless streak in Serie A. The Sardinians low on confidence right now, and they could struggle to deal with a strong Napoli team. Napoli have a solid away record, with eight wins from 15 games on the road, and they should have too much firepower for Cagliari to handle.
Parma is not a team we generally talk about when we talk about the Italian clubs really performing, but man do they look good so far in 2026. They are currently on an unbeaten run over their last five matches. During that streak, we saw them beat Verona, take down Milan, sneak ahead of Bologna, and draw against Fiorentina. This is a team that is no longer being written off as a free three points, and I'm not expecting a Torino side, that is limping to the finish line, to beat them.
I am definitely still learning my way around Draw No Bet. I saw this, and I was curious what DNB might look like with the overall money line at around -170. DNB is priced -550. Yikes. I wouldn't play that number even if it were MJ's Tune Squad (did you really think they would lose?) against the Monstars. Napoli is 23 points better in the Serie A table. The Parthenopeans can't win the league but also can't afford to not get three points here in pushing for a top-four finish. Kevin De Bruyne will return from a long injury absence. Many of our books have -1 so perhaps some value here even at the number. Torino has taken one point in its past four visits.
Not really clear why Udinese is getting the +0.25 at home when it sits eight points ahead of Fiorentina in the Serie A table. I mean, thank you, I'll take it. Granted, the hosts aren't playing great and the Florence club eyes consecutive Serie A away fixtures for the first time since November 2024. But that we don't even have to worry about draw? And surely Udinese will be eyeing some "horse head in the bed"-type retribution for a 5-1 whooping at Fiorentina on Dec. 21, but the Little Zebras (fabulous) were down to 10 men just seven minutes in. This time, Udinese has had a week off to prepare, while the visitors played Thursday in the UEFA Conference League.
Of the teams fighting to get out of the Serie A drop zone, the most likely to escape looks Fiorentina, which shouldn't have been in that predicament in the first place. La Viola have made up the ground caused by the slow start that got Stefano Pioli pink-slipped behind the bench in early November, just completing a promising February that included an unbeaten Serie A mark, plus advancing in the UEFA Conference League, with striker Moise Kean now back in form after his own slow break this season, and having scored in each of La Viola's last three Serie A matches. Meanwhile, another unremarkable season for Udinese, which was victimized by Fiorentina 5-1 on December 21 when Kean scored a brace. Play Fiorentina ML
Fiorentina after an abysmal start to the season, have really started to turn things around. The club won their last two Serie A matches taking down Pisa, which isn't that impressive, but also Como on the road. They've also scored against clubs like Napoli, Lazio, and Torino in recent weeks. Not to mention, when these two teams played in December, Fiorentina stomped Udinese 5-1. Fiorentina is fixing their form, while Udinese has been falling a part. I think Fiorentina will win outright, but I like this DNB line.