

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Past Picks
I'm not "new" to soccer, but obviously getting bigger and bigger at CBS Sports. Opened my eyes a bit to the "The Beautiful Game." Do I watch until the last 10 minutes? Short of a final/bet, no. Could I kick a ball into an open net from five yards away? Also no. I still prefer Wiffle Ball but can't bet on that and am enjoying the intricacies. Stoppage time is the worst, but otherwise. I already like Frosinone for the nickname: Canaries. They have played 11 total matches this year including friendlies. Two have landed Over this number. Sassuolo will concede and also leave your hair feeling fresh and bouncy. It's just will the visitors give up more than 2? Model has 2.7 total goals.
This as you can see is priced quite high for Monday but it's also a gift in my mind because three of our books have -1 and the other two at -1.5. So if I have to cough up a bit more $$ to avoid a push, that's OK. I do struggle to see a home loss as Venezia is quite easily the worst team in Serie A -- the only side yet to win and with the worst goal differential (minus-9). Plus, really banged up. Atalanta is mid-table.
CBS Sports Network game. Lazio looked strong in winning the season opener 1-0 at Bologna behind a goal from summer signing Davide Frattesi. Genoa looked about as bad as any Serie A team with a 2-0 home loss to Napoli. Lazio has won the past six in this series by a combined score of 13-2. Genoa had only four away wins last season.
Yes, I tend to pick Sassuolo matches because it reminds me of shampoo and a Phil Collins song. Hey whatever works man. Home opener and that's something I always like to play but I have flipped from DNB to the total. Torino didn't look particularly good in its opener, a 2-1 loss to AC Milan. The Sassys, meanwhile, lost their top goalscorer from last season in Andrea Pinamonti to Lazio. A few other guys are out. Pinamonti! Amore! Beefaroni! Love Italy. Welp, summer is officially over now. Gots to work. See you in April wife ...
High number but our only -0.5 on the board -- the rest are all at -1. Napoli, sitting second in Serie A, has just two home losses in its past 25. It did lose at Bologna earlier this season but also beat the team, 2-0, in Saudi Arabia (???) near Christmas in the Italian Supercoppa. Bologna has a single win in its past six in all competitions and has not scored in the past four. Maybe U2.5 isn't a bad idea, either.
Without Draw No Bet? Pass. This is why I miss -1 in the NHL so much (and not really playing) but that's for another day. I'm just now realizing that pretty much every team name in Serie A ends in a vowel. Hey, I'm a grammar nerd what can I say? Also math nerd. Let's just assume nerd overall, Poindexter. (#lambda) Lot of player concerns for the visitors and at this point in the season, really nothing to play for on either side in terms of Europe or domestic. So we take the home team. Il Toro won the reverse fixture, 1-0, in December.
Did not expect to be up at 5 a.m. ET on May 1 and be thinking of Udinese -- Beefaroni, maybe -- but here we are. Perhaps tired me is a footy genius. Doubt it, although doing pretty well of late. If I get a team higher in any table at a good DNB price, I'm taking it. And that's this one Saturday from Serie A. The Little Zebras have looked completely different for the most part since the start of March, including a rout of AC Milan. They won the reverse fixture, 2-1 on Jan. 7 and eye their first league double in the series since 2008.
Think I am learning that I prefer domestic soccer to the Champions League at least as a bettor. A little bit more predictable, it seems, and lower-scoring. Obviously exceptions to every rule and that's just my take. I am not being offered +1.25 or that'd be fine at a cheaper price. I simply want over +1 on Sassuolo at home as I tend to think a one-goal loss is coming. But might draw. Perhaps a bit of a trap spot for Como off a wild 4-3 loss vs. league-leading Inter last Sunday, blowing a 2-0 lead. And those two play again Tuesday in the Coppa Italia semifinals. Easy to overlook a mid-table Sassuolo side you'd think.
Inter leads Serie A by a fair amount but without two key guys today in leading scorer Lautaro Martinez (16 domestic goals) and defenseman Yann Aurel Bisseck (two goals and an assist). Como (se llama) is fighting for European qualification next season and unbeaten in eight if my math is right. That includes a scoreless home draw vs. Inter in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals on March 3. More than fine with a similar score.
Am sitting +200 in soccer's return from the international break so let's keep going Sunday. Serie A leader Inter is not losing at home to AS Roma, in my opinion. Just whether it will be a draw or not. Draw Not Bet not an option (non-parlay anyways) at -400.
Don't know much about history. Don't know much biology. Don't know much about a science book. Don't know much about Italy, either. But this feels quite cheap for DNB on Parma. Yes, I know it's still pretty high but shouldn't it be around -350ish? Again, standing in the table is not everything, but Parma is home and 10 points better than Cremonese. I guess my biggest concern is not really knowing if a "new manager bump" exists in Serie A. That's the case for the visitors with Marco Giampaolo having taken over this week. The side has 11 defeats in 15 games without a win.
I am definitely still learning my way around Draw No Bet. I saw this, and I was curious what DNB might look like with the overall money line at around -170. DNB is priced -550. Yikes. I wouldn't play that number even if it were MJ's Tune Squad (did you really think they would lose?) against the Monstars. Napoli is 23 points better in the Serie A table. The Parthenopeans can't win the league but also can't afford to not get three points here in pushing for a top-four finish. Kevin De Bruyne will return from a long injury absence. Many of our books have -1 so perhaps some value here even at the number. Torino has taken one point in its past four visits.
Not really clear why Udinese is getting the +0.25 at home when it sits eight points ahead of Fiorentina in the Serie A table. I mean, thank you, I'll take it. Granted, the hosts aren't playing great and the Florence club eyes consecutive Serie A away fixtures for the first time since November 2024. But that we don't even have to worry about draw? And surely Udinese will be eyeing some "horse head in the bed"-type retribution for a 5-1 whooping at Fiorentina on Dec. 21, but the Little Zebras (fabulous) were down to 10 men just seven minutes in. This time, Udinese has had a week off to prepare, while the visitors played Thursday in the UEFA Conference League.
Parma sits three points higher in the table entering Friday's Serie A match. The hosts have won three in a row if not playing that well at home overall this season. Cagliari is winless in its past three and didn't score in any. It has won just two of its past 12 away and allowed at least one goal in eight straight roadies. Cagliari has a lot more player worries including defender Yerry Minna suspended and midfielder Liza Minnelli ... err Luca Mazzitelli (two goals, two assists) out injured. Parma gets back key defender Alessandro Circati from suspension. It lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in September. I lean something like a 1-1 draw here but maybe we get lucky. Under 2.5 is too expensive.
Unfortunately, Draw No Bet is way too pricy for this Serie A match. Hellas Verona is last in the league and without a handful of players, including leading scorer and the wonderfully named Gift Orban (seven goals). I Gialloblu have one win and eight goals in 12 away league matches and are winless in the past 10 games overall. Sassuolo won the reverse fixture 1-0 in early October on an Andrea Pinamonti 71st-minute goal. I looked at Under 2.5 here.
