High number but our only -0.5 on the board -- the rest are all at -1. Napoli, sitting second in Serie A, has just two home losses in its past 25. It did lose at Bologna earlier this season but also beat the team, 2-0, in Saudi Arabia (???) near Christmas in the Italian Supercoppa. Bologna has a single win in its past six in all competitions and has not scored in the past four. Maybe U2.5 isn't a bad idea, either.
Without Draw No Bet? Pass. This is why I miss -1 in the NHL so much (and not really playing) but that's for another day. I'm just now realizing that pretty much every team name in Serie A ends in a vowel. Hey, I'm a grammar nerd what can I say? Also math nerd. Let's just assume nerd overall, Poindexter. (#lambda) Lot of player concerns for the visitors and at this point in the season, really nothing to play for on either side in terms of Europe or domestic. So we take the home team. Il Toro won the reverse fixture, 1-0, in December.
Did not expect to be up at 5 a.m. ET on May 1 and be thinking of Udinese -- Beefaroni, maybe -- but here we are. Perhaps tired me is a footy genius. Doubt it, although doing pretty well of late. If I get a team higher in any table at a good DNB price, I'm taking it. And that's this one Saturday from Serie A. The Little Zebras have looked completely different for the most part since the start of March, including a rout of AC Milan. They won the reverse fixture, 2-1 on Jan. 7 and eye their first league double in the series since 2008.
Think I am learning that I prefer domestic soccer to the Champions League at least as a bettor. A little bit more predictable, it seems, and lower-scoring. Obviously exceptions to every rule and that's just my take. I am not being offered +1.25 or that'd be fine at a cheaper price. I simply want over +1 on Sassuolo at home as I tend to think a one-goal loss is coming. But might draw. Perhaps a bit of a trap spot for Como off a wild 4-3 loss vs. league-leading Inter last Sunday, blowing a 2-0 lead. And those two play again Tuesday in the Coppa Italia semifinals. Easy to overlook a mid-table Sassuolo side you'd think.
Inter leads Serie A by a fair amount but without two key guys today in leading scorer Lautaro Martinez (16 domestic goals) and defenseman Yann Aurel Bisseck (two goals and an assist). Como (se llama) is fighting for European qualification next season and unbeaten in eight if my math is right. That includes a scoreless home draw vs. Inter in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals on March 3. More than fine with a similar score.
Am sitting +200 in soccer's return from the international break so let's keep going Sunday. Serie A leader Inter is not losing at home to AS Roma, in my opinion. Just whether it will be a draw or not. Draw Not Bet not an option (non-parlay anyways) at -400.
Don't know much about history. Don't know much biology. Don't know much about a science book. Don't know much about Italy, either. But this feels quite cheap for DNB on Parma. Yes, I know it's still pretty high but shouldn't it be around -350ish? Again, standing in the table is not everything, but Parma is home and 10 points better than Cremonese. I guess my biggest concern is not really knowing if a "new manager bump" exists in Serie A. That's the case for the visitors with Marco Giampaolo having taken over this week. The side has 11 defeats in 15 games without a win.
I am definitely still learning my way around Draw No Bet. I saw this, and I was curious what DNB might look like with the overall money line at around -170. DNB is priced -550. Yikes. I wouldn't play that number even if it were MJ's Tune Squad (did you really think they would lose?) against the Monstars. Napoli is 23 points better in the Serie A table. The Parthenopeans can't win the league but also can't afford to not get three points here in pushing for a top-four finish. Kevin De Bruyne will return from a long injury absence. Many of our books have -1 so perhaps some value here even at the number. Torino has taken one point in its past four visits.
Not really clear why Udinese is getting the +0.25 at home when it sits eight points ahead of Fiorentina in the Serie A table. I mean, thank you, I'll take it. Granted, the hosts aren't playing great and the Florence club eyes consecutive Serie A away fixtures for the first time since November 2024. But that we don't even have to worry about draw? And surely Udinese will be eyeing some "horse head in the bed"-type retribution for a 5-1 whooping at Fiorentina on Dec. 21, but the Little Zebras (fabulous) were down to 10 men just seven minutes in. This time, Udinese has had a week off to prepare, while the visitors played Thursday in the UEFA Conference League.
Parma sits three points higher in the table entering Friday's Serie A match. The hosts have won three in a row if not playing that well at home overall this season. Cagliari is winless in its past three and didn't score in any. It has won just two of its past 12 away and allowed at least one goal in eight straight roadies. Cagliari has a lot more player worries including defender Yerry Minna suspended and midfielder Liza Minnelli ... err Luca Mazzitelli (two goals, two assists) out injured. Parma gets back key defender Alessandro Circati from suspension. It lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in September. I lean something like a 1-1 draw here but maybe we get lucky. Under 2.5 is too expensive.
Unfortunately, Draw No Bet is way too pricy for this Serie A match. Hellas Verona is last in the league and without a handful of players, including leading scorer and the wonderfully named Gift Orban (seven goals). I Gialloblu have one win and eight goals in 12 away league matches and are winless in the past 10 games overall. Sassuolo won the reverse fixture 1-0 in early October on an Andrea Pinamonti 71st-minute goal. I looked at Under 2.5 here.
You know what irks me about soccer on weekends? Starts too early. Missed two plays because I slept in for once. Dang it Europe, be on Eastern Time! Of course kidding and know how American that sounds. I did used to get up early for a couple of World Cups because the pubs were open via special exemption. Super fun, but I highly do not recommend pork scratchings and Guinness at 5 am. These two are right next to each other in the Serie A table, although Atalanta has six more points. I will say this is tricky because Lazio will be playing a third time in six days (drew both). But Atalanta also has a Champions League match Tuesday. This is why draws exist.
Will do a half for this Friday Serie A matchup as I don't really think it wins, but the Under 2.5 total is super pricy and this is obviously a solid price. It might win. In four of its past five in all competitions, Lazio has either scored one or been clean sheeted -- am I the first to verb that? Genoa has totaled two goals in its past three away domestic matches. I'm sure it ends 1-1 or the like but maybe we get lucky.
Como might have the best stadium location on the planet and is averaging 2.11 points per home game. I Lariani are on a nine-game unbeaten run at home. Cesc Fabregas' side is unbeaten in the last four overall. AC Milan has looked rather average in 2026 thus far with a win and two draws, not scoring more than one goal in any. Top Milan defender Strahinja Pavlovic is out. Niclas Füllkrug is in question with a fractured toe.
Inter Milan may top this itself like Bayern Munich did the other day, but Lecce has scored the fewest goals in Serie A with 13 and Inter has allowed among the fewest with 17. 3-0 works. Lecce hasn't had a match with more than four total goals scored since Oct. 25. Available on Paramount+.