B365/MGM. Greg Dulcich has notched 40+ receiving yards in each of his last four games. After leading the Dolphins in targets last week, with Quinn Ewers at the helm, I love Dulcich this week. No Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller or De’Von Achane, and the Patriots tight-end defense has been below average (12th most yards allowed). I’d bet this to over 45.5.

Though the Patriots know a Denver loss is unlikely vs. a scaled-back Chargers lineup, thus most probably closing the door on a chance for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, it doesn't seem to be in the DNA of Mike Vrabel's team to take it easy. New England has been rolling since late September, winning 12 of 13, and Drake Maye is closing in on the league MVP honors as he completes a spectacular sophomore season, and might be off of his highlight-reel game of the season when tossing 5 TD passes last week vs. the Jets. Meanwhile, after hitting the high note of beating the Bucs last week, not expecting Quinn Ewers or Miami to do much in the Foxborough cold. Play Patriots

The New England Patriots cruised to victory in last week’s matchup against the New York Jets. Drake Maye exited late in the third quarter with five touchdown passes. Being the current leader in the MVP race and this being a tune up game before the playoffs, expect the Patriots to not be as conservative as one would expect. In turn with Maye airing out the football, look for Henry to clear his yardage prop today against Miami.

Poor Quinn Ewers. It's the rookie's third start -- away from home, against a foe shooting for a No. 1 playoff seed -- and his main helpers likely are sitting out. RB De'Von Achane is their best rusher, WR Jaylen Waddle their best wide receiver -- both by a wide margin. New England enters with an outside shot at the top seed. But if Denver, playing concurrently, puts away the Chargers early as expected, the Patriots might go into get-the-game-over-with mode.

I'm surprised this number is as low as it is considering the context, as the Patriots are double-digit favorites against a bad Dolphins defense that's 25th in yards per rush allowed. Stevenson remains a key part of the offense, rushing for 40+ yards in four straight, and he's had at least 27 receiving yards in every game in that stretch, finishing with no fewer than 77 yards total. He's also received at least three targets in all of those games, so TreVeyon Henderson's ascension hasn't left him with a reduced role in the passing attack. I'd take Over 32.5 rushing yards if you don't have the combined total available.

The Dolphins are coming off an upset win over a hopeful playoff team, and it's the type of positive outcome that can result in taking the foot off the gas in the final week on the road as big underdogs. Despite the win, Baker Mayfield navigated around two picks to have his best performance in months, and Quinn Ewers was inconsistent as four drives ended in negative yardage. The Patriots have shown they can beat bad teams by double digits, and Miami shouldn't be trusted on the road here. My ratings make this line Patriots -13, and the circumstances for the Dolphins off a win with the potential for a letdown would inflate it a bit higher.