Trusting the Cowboys this season has been a losing proposition. Outside of the Chiefs, perhaps no team has cost us more significantly. Dallas enters 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS since the start of December, but New York has lost nine straight games before dominating the worst team in the league (Las Vegas). Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson and Jevon Holland are out for the Giants, as are two starters along the offensive line. The Cowboys offense is missing Javonte Williams, which presents a prove-it opportunity for Jaydon Blue. If Dallas cannot cover this … shame.

Dallas has won all but one of the last 17 meetings SU, with a 12-5 ATS record during that span. Let's ride the Cowboys again with QB Dak Prescott, statistically the league's premier passer hoping to finish strong. The Giants, who are hitting the finish line as an improved team, claim they will go all out. But will they? With a defeat and a Las Vegas victory, they land the No. 1 draft pick. A W could send them all the way down to No. 7. If things do not go well early in this matchup, they would be forgiven for calling off the dogs and coasting home with an L.

Expect to see starters as usual in this finale; the G-Men are already on record saying as much after their best effort in over a month last week vs. the Raiders. New York is also on a 9-2 over run into Sunday's finale. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has had several big games in his career vs. the Giants, and will play on Sunday as Dallas seems motivated to end the season 8-8-1, and not under.500, to avoid joining an ignominious collection of previous Cowboys underachievers. Dallas also enters the finale over in five straight and 11-2 its last 13 games, and note the first meeting back in September landed 40-37 in favor of Dallas in OT (when Russell Wilson--remember him?--starred for NY). Play Cowboys-Giants Over

Dallas will be starting Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and George Pickens in this Week 18 game, which is enough for me to play them as short favorites. Their offense should simply outpace the Giants, who will be playing without WR Wan’Dale Robinson, TE Theo Johnson, and their two best offensive linemen Andrew Thomas & Evan Neal. The Cowboys won’t have RB Javonte Williams, but they can attack New York’s porous secondary that will be without FS Jevon Holland and CB Cor’Dale Flott. Prescott & Pickens are playing for incentives, and the Cowboys can finish Brian Schotteinheimer’s first season as head coach at .500 with a win here over a bad Giants team.

This line at DraftKings is nearly a full point lower than the rest of the market and I want to jump on it now. The Cowboys are the quintessential "great offense with a bad defense who missed the playoffs and get to put up a meaningless blowout victory against a division opponent in Week 18" team. We see a couple every year. Brian Schottenheimer can close out the year with two strong division wins and Jerry Jones will be "happy" or close to it, with zero talk about his job security. Dak could have a monster game here against a hapless Giants defense.