The Dolphins won't have safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, further weakening a bad secondary. In two games since returning from injury, Mike Evans has drawn 21 targets and re-assumed his role as Baker Mayfield's go-to guy. Conditions will be perfect for passing, so I bet Evans to go Over his receiving yards total.

It's do-or-die time for the Bucs, who can't assume the Panthers will lose to the Seahawks to keep them alive. I expect Evans to be heavily involved in the gameplan after receiving 21 targets in his first two games back, though he didn't do much with them last week. This should be a better matchup against a Dolphins defense that just gave up 300 passing yards to the Bengals and generally didn't look like it wanted to be out there for most of that game. I'd play this one up to 59.5.

I was wrong on Mike Evans' over last week, but I'm going back to the well this week. Evans had a 36% target share last week and has 32% target share on his routes this season. This is a good matchup for Evans to go over, as the Dolphins give up 8.8 yards per target. In a must-win game, I like Evans to soar over this line.

In this must-win game, I expect Baker Mayfield to do whatever is necessary to win. That, of course, includes scrambling if need be. Mayfield has gone over this rush line in five of the last six games. In fact, four of those games, he soared over this rushing line. With everything on the line for the Bucs' season, I expect him to soar over this line again.

Quinn Ewers wasn't a total disaster in his first NFL start, and with another week of practice with Waddle should have fewer miscommunications with him like in Week 16. Even with miscommunications and off-target throws, Waddle had 72 yards, over the prop that I went against last week. Miami hosts Tampa Bay and its zone-heavy defense, which is terrific for Waddle as he averages 15.4 yards per catch versus zone (14.4 last week with Ewers) compared to 8.5 versus man-to-man. There's no doubt that Waddle will remain Ewers' primary option in the pass game, and the Bucs have allowed 60-plus receiving yards to wide receivers 14 times this year including at least one in 10 of its past 11 games.