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Massive line for an NFL game with a legitimate starting quarterback on the other side, but this simply speaks to the huge differential between these teams. The Texans have been absolutely dominant defensively, clicking at the right time with the playoffs approaching. The Raiders have imploded, losing eight straight games, including four of the last five by 14+ points. Will Las Vegas even score 10 points on Sunday? With Kolton Miller still out, its offensive line may not even provide Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty with that opportunity. Look for Houston to roll.
It looks like Geno Smith will return to the Raiders lineup on Sunday. At one point this season we would have considered that big news...but not now. Nothing seems to be helping the Silver & Black, whose losing streak has reached eight with several abysmal performances from the offense, which has been shut out twice by identical 31-0 scores (by Chiefs & Eagles). Trading away top WR Jakobi Myers to the Jags at midseason was reportedly against Pete Carroll's wishes and if true another indicator of the dysfunction of the front office. As for the Texans, they couldn't be at a more opposite end of the spectrum, with six straight wins as they continue to bear down on Jacksonville in the AFC South. Play Texans

This is a tough spot for Geno Smith to make his return. The Texans allow 166.7 passing yards per game at home, and that includes some much tougher matchups than this one. Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller isn't coming back this week, so Smith will be under intense pressure from Houston's pass rush. In addition, elite Texans corner Derek Stingley has a chance to play.
I gave this out earlier this week on our shows at 25.5 but I'd still play it here. Houston has been a different team at home -- one of the best cover rates in the NFL, averaging over 26 points a game. That's impressive when considering the teams they have faced -- Bills, Jags, Broncos, and the 49ers. Now they're facing a struggling Raiders defense and team that is 2-5 ATS on the road, giving up an average of 28 points a game. If the Texans cover the 14.5 point spread, they should put up at least 27 points in the process.
The Texans have won six straight, covering five of those. In their current four-game ATS win streak, the Texans covered by a total of 41 points. Even if Geno Smith returns from his multiple injuries, this is a brutal spot against an elite Houston defense on the road. Houston's offense has improved lately as CJ Stroud increasingly attacks the middle of the field. That should again prove effective against the reeling Raiders.
Everything came together for the Texans offense last week thanks in part to facing a weak opponent, and that could again be the case here. The Raiders have looked a team going through the motions for weeks, losing four of the last five by 14+ but kicking a meaningless FG with no time left to only lose to Denver by seven. The last time they had more than 188 yards of offense on the road was Week 5 in Indy, and this matchup isn't any easier than the teams they've faced in that stretch. Houston's defensive front should dominate a bad Raiders O-line and again hold them to single digits, while the offense figures to score in the high 20s at least.
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