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Sun, Dec 219:25 pm UTCNRG Stadium
Las Vegas
Raiders
LV
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-14
ATS7-10
O/U8-9-0
FINAL SCORE
21
-
23
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L12-4
ATS9-8
O/U6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
2-14
Win /Loss
12-4
7-10
Spread
9-8
8-9-0
Over / Under
6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
LV @ HOU
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MONEYLINE
LV @ HOU
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OVER / UNDER
LV @ HOU
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28%
PUBLIC
72%
MONEY
5%
PUBLIC
95%
MONEY
Over78%
PUBLIC
Under22%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

SpreadHouston -14 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
Adam's Analysis:

Massive line for an NFL game with a legitimate starting quarterback on the other side, but this simply speaks to the huge differential between these teams. The Texans have been absolutely dominant defensively, clicking at the right time with the playoffs approaching. The Raiders have imploded, losing eight straight games, including four of the last five by 14+ points. Will Las Vegas even score 10 points on Sunday? With Kolton Miller still out, its offensive line may not even provide Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty with that opportunity. Look for Houston to roll.

Pick Made: Dec 21, 8:53 pm UTC on Caesars
SpreadHouston -14 -107
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1689
59-38-2 in Last 99 NFL ATS Picks
+247
6-3-1 in Last 10 LV ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

It looks like Geno Smith will return to the Raiders lineup on Sunday. At one point this season we would have considered that big news...but not now. Nothing seems to be helping the Silver & Black, whose losing streak has reached eight with several abysmal performances from the offense, which has been shut out twice by identical 31-0 scores (by Chiefs & Eagles). Trading away top WR Jakobi Myers to the Jags at midseason was reportedly against Pete Carroll's wishes and if true another indicator of the dysfunction of the front office. As for the Texans, they couldn't be at a more opposite end of the spectrum, with six straight wins as they continue to bear down on Jacksonville in the AFC South. Play Texans

Pick Made: Dec 21, 7:59 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Passing YardsGeno Smith Under 184.5 Total Passing Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+171
7-4 in Last 11 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

This is a tough spot for Geno Smith to make his return. The Texans allow 166.7 passing yards per game at home, and that includes some much tougher matchups than this one. Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller isn't coming back this week, so Smith will be under intense pressure from Houston's pass rush. In addition, elite Texans corner Derek Stingley has a chance to play.

Pick Made: Dec 21, 2:50 am UTC on BetMGM
Home Team TotalHouston Over 26.5 Total Pts -104
LOSS
Unit1.0
+16
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Team Props Picks
Claudia's Analysis:

I gave this out earlier this week on our shows at 25.5 but I'd still play it here. Houston has been a different team at home -- one of the best cover rates in the NFL, averaging over 26 points a game. That's impressive when considering the teams they have faced -- Bills, Jags, Broncos, and the 49ers. Now they're facing a struggling Raiders defense and team that is 2-5 ATS on the road, giving up an average of 28 points a game. If the Texans cover the 14.5 point spread, they should put up at least 27 points in the process.

Pick Made: Dec 19, 5:18 pm UTC on FanDuel
SpreadHouston -14 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+596
43-33-1 in Last 77 NFL ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

The Texans have won six straight, covering five of those. In their current four-game ATS win streak, the Texans covered by a total of 41 points. Even if Geno Smith returns from his multiple injuries, this is a brutal spot against an elite Houston defense on the road. Houston's offense has improved lately as CJ Stroud increasingly attacks the middle of the field. That should again prove effective against the reeling Raiders.

Pick Made: Dec 17, 5:05 am UTC on bet365
SpreadHouston -14 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+412
33-26 in Last 59 NFL Picks
+81
3-2 in Last 5 NFL ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Everything came together for the Texans offense last week thanks in part to facing a weak opponent, and that could again be the case here. The Raiders have looked a team going through the motions for weeks, losing four of the last five by 14+ but kicking a meaningless FG with no time left to only lose to Denver by seven. The last time they had more than 188 yards of offense on the road was Week 5 in Indy, and this matchup isn't any easier than the teams they've faced in that stretch. Houston's defensive front should dominate a bad Raiders O-line and again hold them to single digits, while the offense figures to score in the high 20s at least.

Pick Made: Dec 16, 4:27 pm UTC on bet365

Team Injuries

Las Vegas Raiders
Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026
Avatar
SAF
Isaiah Pola-Mao
ShoulderQuestionable
Monday, Jan 05, 2026
Avatar
QB
Geno Smith
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
RB
Raheem Mostert
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
DT
Adam Butler
BicepsQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Dylan Parham
IllnessQuestionable
Houston Texans
Monday, Jan 19, 2026
Avatar
OT
Trent Brown
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Justin Watson
ConcussionQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Nico Collins
ConcussionQuestionable
Sunday, Jan 18, 2026
Avatar
TE
Dalton Schultz
CalfQuestionable
Avatar
RB
Jawhar Jordan
Coach's Decision
Avatar
TE
Cade Stover
KneeQuestionable
Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026
Avatar
DT
Sheldon Rankins
Elbow
Avatar
DT
Denico Autry
Knee
Avatar
OT
Tytus Howard
Ankle
Avatar
LB
Azeez Al-Shaair
Knee
Avatar
OG
Ed Ingram
Shoulder
Avatar
CB
Kamari Lassiter
Ankle
Thursday, Jan 08, 2026
Avatar
CB
Derek Stingley Jr.
Oblique
Monday, Jan 05, 2026
Avatar
LB
Jamal Hill
Calf
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