Typically in a cold and windy game I’d be playing the under, but these defenses have been atrocious. The Giants and Commanders each rank bottom-five in the league in defensive EPA per play & DVOA. New York can’t stop anybody on the ground (or through the air for that matter), and Washington has given up 25+ points to 7 of the last 8 teams they’ve faced (with the one exception being the Dolphins in Madrid). The east coast is getting some snow this morning, and you know we love a “Snowver.”

Coming off his bye week, Jaxson Dart has a dream matchup against Washington's pass defense. The Commanders rank in the bottom third in almost every statistical category of pass defense. The one that stuck out to me the most was Washington's defense has a 6.6% touchdown rate, which is 31st in the NFL. After losing RB Cam Skattebo for the season, who was a touchdown hammer, and not giving Dart as many designed rushes, I love this price for Dart to throw for 2 or more touchdowns on Sunday.

With the loss of Zach Ertz for the season, and Deebo Samuel is questionable for Sunday, Terry McLaurin should get a lot of usage. In his second game back from injury, he ran 71% of the routes last week. With that likely to go up this week, so will his target share given the depleted receiving options, even if Samuel plays. He's a trusted red zone target and he has a great matchup against the Giants' secondary. The Giants give up the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers. I like this price for McLaurin to find the endzone on Sunday.

We were successfully on Washington two weeks ago and successfully against them last week. Back on them here in Division, where Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury are at their best. Mariotta will join the rushing attack against this league-worst run-stop unit, who also happens to rank near the bottom in Red Zone Defense and in Penalty Yards. Things are a mess in NY with the interim coach Kafka firing assistants and seemingly lacking direction. As bad as things are in Washington, they are the better team here and are better coached. I actually make them a very small favorite and I expect they win the game outright.

FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has cleared this line in eight of thirteen games this season, including five of the last six games started by Jaxson Dart. With the second most catches out of the slot in the NFL, he will face the soft defense of the Commanders. Washington has allowed the fourth most receptions per game out of the slot (7.5) at the third highest catch rate (76%) and third highest target rate (35.2%).