With Bucky Irving back last week, the Bucs threw just 28 times against Arizona. Look for Tampa Bay to again emphasize the run in what should be a positive game script. In Saints' road games, opponents have thrown the ball a league-low 44.23 percent of the time. I would play this down to 29.5.

Chris Godwin has spent the bulk of the season on Injured Reserve however returned to the Bucs lineup last week and looked good, while immediately filling in as the Bucs WR1. Godwin has long has great chemistry with Baker Mayfield and we’re getting a hefty discount on this line. I expect his route participation to climb and this number ultimately feels much closer to his floor than ceiling.

This looks like a buy low-sell high situation to me with people believing the Buccaneers are back and the Saints continuing to decline. Actually NO has covered 2 of its last 3 games including an outright win over Carolina. They have owned this series when playing in Tampa and will be seeking same-season revenge for a 23-3 loss at home to the Buccaneers a little over a month ago. Tampa Bay has been outgained in 9 straight games and the Saints defense has been playing especially well lately. When I crunch the numbers, I get the Buccaneers favored by 4. 8.5 is too many for a Tampa team that remains injured and will likely be without Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans.

The Bucs are big favorites in this matchup, and considering the health of their starting quarterback, the gameplan has to be to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. To be fair, that's been most teams' approach to facing New Orleans, as only one defense has seen fewer pass attempts per game than the Saints' 27.5. Mayfield has hit 30 pass attempts just once in his last five games as he has struggled with injuries even before the worst one, the shoulder issue he picked up a few weeks ago. I also like taking his Under passing yards, but this protects us against an early long completion that skews Mayfield's yards per attempt.

Despite some of the flashes of good plays in garbage time, the Saints offense with a rookie QB hasn't been much to hang onto recently. Tampa Bay finds themselves in desperation mode here, as they are trying to keep a stranglehold on the division lead with the Panthers starting to surge. Look for them to go all gas no brakes on the Saints at home.