Try as I might, I cannot skip the Bengals in this spot. While Josh Allen has won 13 straight 1 p.m. kickoffs, it matters not who wins – just that Cincinnati covers. Buffalo has serious issues on defense, even if it is a tier or two higher than the visitors. The Bengals bring explosive playmakers at both levels: Chase Brown should thrive in a snow game against the Bills' weak run defense, and Tee Higgins is back alongside Ja’Marr Chase helping Joe Burrow, who is 3-0 this season and has never (!) lost a road game in December. Make sure to get this at +6 (or +6.5 closer to kickoff), not +5.5, but you may want to consider a moneyline sprinkle on Cincinnati around +230.

How about 3-0 with...and 1-8 without. No, we're not talking about cheese steaks (at least for the moment), but that's the Bengals' record in games with Joe Burrow starting at QB, and games without Burrow starting at QB. Burrow is back and starting at QB again on Sunday at buffalo. There's more, but the Cincy argument always circles back to Burrow, especially in December, when the Bengals rallied min 2021, 2022, and 2024, all with Burrow at the helm (he missed December 2023 with injury). Not sure dominating a fading Pittsburgh last week and running roughshod over an tired Steelers defense was really a buy signal on the Bills, who have had their problems vs. Cincy in recent years. Play Bengals

In Burrow’s first start back from injury he got right to gunslinging, throwing 24/46 against the Ravens in an upset victory. Burrow will now go head-to-head with Josh Allen, and the total for this game sits at 53.5 so we can expect offense. Burrow will also get back his WR2 Tee Higgins. Last season, Burrow went over this pass attempts total in 12/17 games. The Bengals need to run the table to keep their season alive, and it’s on their star QB to find a way. I like Burrow for 40+ attempts today.

FanDuel. After starting the season incredibly slow, Chase Brown has not only cleared this line in each of his last six games, but recorded at least 100 scrimmage yards in each. The bump in his production coincided with Joe Flacco taking the reins, and now with Joe Burrow back at quarterback, defenses will be more focused stopping the Bengals through the air. The Bills have struggled as is against the run game, allowing the third most running back rush yards per game (on more than five yards per carry). And Brown should be involved in the passing game against a Bills defense that plays two-high safeties to protect against the deep ball. I’d bet this up to 77.5 yards.

This could be a cold game with snow, which I think has suppressed some of the passing and receiving props. But there isn't expected to be much wind, so if a team wants -- or needs -- to throw downfield, they should be able to. Higgins is coming back from a concussion and will be fully healthy, and I expect him to get to 60+ receiving yards like he had in four of his five games prior to the one in which he suffered the injury (and all were without Joe Burrow). The Bills have major issues at defensive end, and I don't see their pass rush being an issue for Burrow, who should be able to target Higgins downfield several times in this game.