Don't look now, but the Dolphins aren't out of the AFC playoff race quite yet. Wins in three of four have revived hopes for Miami, which still has ground to make up but does have a favorable slate upcoming (Saints here, next two vs. the Jets and fading Steelers) that could get them to 7-7 by mid-December...and very much in the chase. The defense has excelled in recent weeks and we have seen some good efforts in the past month for Tua Tagovailoa. As for the Saints, the defense is stout but the offense is tied with the Raiders for fewest ppg in the league. Play Dolphins

We all know that De'Vonn Achane is an explosive running back. Achane has rushes of 10 or more yards on 17.7% of his attempts this season. He has exceeded this longest rush prop line in seven of his 11 games this season. He has exceeded this line, usually well above this line, in five of his last six games. He has a great matchup against the Saints' defense, so I look for Achane to soar past his longest rush prop again on Sunday.

The Dolphins opened 1-6 straight-up, and there was speculation that coach Mike McDanel might not last beyond midseason. Since, Miami has won three of four outright, twice in convincing fashion, and the bespectacled boss appears off the hot seat. The defense was dinged for just 32 combined points in those games. The Saints threw rookie QB Tyler Slough into the deep end late last month, and he has managed to stay afloat. However, it appears he must go to battle without main WR Chris Olave and fading but still effective RB Alvin Kamara, both injured. The ‘Fins conversely, are due to get reacquainted with OT Austin Jackson, out since early September, as they shoot for their fifth cover in six home gigs.

New Orleans has given up 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games, so the Saints should have a shot to slow down Devon Achane. New Orleans squandered its opportunities last week vs. Atlanta, but the offense generated a 42 percent success rate and had the ball inside the Falcons' 30-yard line four times. Miami comes off its bye, which followed an overtime win overseas against lowly Washington. The Dolphins deserve to be favored in this battle of bad teams. But this is too many points.

The Dolphins come off their bye fresh to face a Saints team that flopped in a similar situation last week. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara in that matchup, and if he's out this week as expected, I don't know how they get past 17 points. They haven't in five straight and in 7 of 11 overall this year, and the continued usage of Taysom Hill near the end zone shows why they're last in red zone touchdown rate. The Dolphins' defense is below average overall but fifth in that stat, and the unit was particularly strong before the bye, holding the Falcons, Bills and Commanders under 14 points in three of its last four games. I'm surprised this number isn't 16.5.