We cashed Cousins under 204.5 passing yards last week in a sweat (he had 199) against a woeful Saints team that played a putrid game. In his only other start this season, Cousins threw 21/31 for just 173 yards against the Dolphins. It will be a cold and rainy day at the Meadowlands, and I don’t see Cousins gunslinging in this environment without his WR1 Drake London. The Jets defense has quietly been playing solid ball lately. Whether through game script or good defense, the Jets have held QBs Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Dillon Gabriel & Lamar Jackson under this low number.

The Jets are in a new phase of the offense with Tyrod Taylor installed at quarterback, and for now the No. 1 receiver on the team appears to be Metchie. After coming to the team via trade about a month ago, Metchie has played more than 80% of snaps in each of the last two games, first catching all three of his targets for 45 yards then catching six of seven targets for 65 yards and scoring a TD in both games. Adoani Mitchell, the more buzzier trade acquisition, has managed just three receptions on 13 targets in that same stretch. Taylor should continue to feed Metchie targets moving forward, and while I also like the yardage Over, this seems like the best value.

The Falcons are coming off a double-digit win against another bad team, and as a result, this line is now up to 3 after sitting at 1.5 on the lookahead and 2.5 most of the week. But the Atlanta defense didn't play as well as it seems, with four Saints drives into field goal range resulting in zero points. The Falcons offense went 3/12 on third downs, and the Jets defense was similarly successful (2/11) against the Ravens, who managed just 4.2 yards per play in the game. With Tyrod Taylor looking like a marked improvement at QB, I see the Jets as the team that improved by more last week, yet the market reflects otherwise. Waiting for the 3 has paid off.

As rough as the Jets season has been, I’m not sure they should be catching a full 3 points at home here. The one thing New York does well consistently is stop the run. If Bijan Robinson isn’t succeeding with his outside zone runs, Atlanta’s offense will have to rely on Kirk Cousins in the wind and rain. Jets backup QB Tyrod Taylor is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, and is a responsible game manager. The Jets have lost by less than a FG to the Steelers, Bucs & Broncos this season. I think they can beat Atlanta without WR1 Drake London, so I’ll take the points.

DraftKings. Kirk Cousins is under this passing yards line in one of his two starts, with the over coming against the Saints bottom barrel pass defense last week. He’ll face the Jets, who have maintained their average pass defense rating even after dealing away Sauce Gardner (6.1 pass yards per attempt over their last three games). Throw in what’s likely to remain a neutral to positive gamescript for the Falcons, and no Drake London in the passing game, and I’d likely be on the under here in sunny conditions. But I’ll take the rain and significant winds that’s being forecasted. I’d bet this down to under 184.5.

Can the Falcons be trusted as a road favorite? The Jets have started to play with some life and I believe they have a good chance to get an outright win here today. The weather will be a factor and that will be tough for a dome team in Atlanta. Raheem Morris has been awful in his career versus the AFC, whether it be as a head coach or as an assistant. With the majority of the action on the Falcons side and the fact that this line remains at 2.5 - and has not gone to 3, is a sign for me when reading the market. Give me the home dog with the points.

Maybe the Falcons aren't out of the NFC South race just yet. Still two games to make up in the standings, but with South leaders Tampa Bay and second-place Carolina unconvincing lately, it's hardly impossible. After some bitter defeats, the Falcons got well against the Saints last week, and many NFC insiders suggest that ATL might be better off with vet Kirk Cousins at QB in place of the skittish Michael Penix, who is down for the count (knee). The Jets might have a sharper edge with Tyrod Taylor at QB, and they've been close many times this season, but NY is still 2-9. Even if Taylor is preferable to Justin Fields, hard to trust the J-Men to score the winning points. Play Falcons