I’m ready to sell high on the Bears, who are feeling themselves on this 3-game win streak. However, two of those games were decided by one point. Chicago beat a broken Cowboys defense, the turnover-happy Raiders, and a beat up Commanders team that fumbled away their potential game-winning drive. Saints QB Spencer Rattler will be up against his old coach Dennis Allen, who is now DC for the Bears. However, Rattler may be looking for revenge against Caleb Williams, who took his starting job in college at Oklahoma. This 1-5 Saints team has quietly been competitive in almost all of their games, and I think they are live to beat the Bears here.

Money continues to come in on the Saints. They're facing the worst defense they've seen all season, as the Bears give up an NFL-high 6.5 yards per play. And I don't expect Grady Jarrett (knee) to return Sunday. Chicago has surprised thus far, winning three of five despite being the underdog each time. It's a different role when you're asked to cover a substantial number. The Bears are improved under Ben Johnson and likely pull out a win, but this is too many points to give the feisty Saints.

This looks to be a strong matchup for Chris Olave who profiles as a significant positive regression candidate. Spencer Rattler has played fairly well especially when given a clean pocket. Meanwhile Chicago’s pass rush ranks dead last in Quick Pressure Rate and 30th in Pass Rush Win Rate. Olave is drawing targets an elite rate and is the clear focal point of New Orleans passing offense. With Chicago checking in as 4.5 point favorites, this could easily shape up as a spike week for Olave. This prop line is much closer to his floor.

The Bears are on a three-game winning streak that has been boosted by 11 takeaways, and even though that's an unsustainable rate they could continue the trend with DC Dennis Allen facing the team he coached last year. A healthier Bears defense should excel against Spencer Rattler, who has lost all five career road starts by at least eight points, with an average 32.4-11.8 final score in those games. Even though the Bears have eeked out their last two wins, I'll trust them to deliver enough offensively to get the cover here.

The Saints are going on the road for just the third time this season, and their offense was held under 300 yards and 20 points in both other matchups despite facing a banged-up Bills defense in one of those games. They've only scored 20 twice all year, and once was thanks to a long fumble return TD. With the Saints offense ranked just 25th in EPA per play, I expect they'll have issues against a Bears defense that's starting to get healthy. Hopefully Grady Jarrett will be back, but even if he's out again I can't see the Saints putting up a big number in a tough environment.