Tucker Kraft leads the Packers in targets and receiving yards. This is an ideal matchup. Based on comments coming from coaches and Jordan Love, they know they need to feed Kraft to succeed.

Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson wears the green dot and is coming off an eight-tackle performance vs. Detroit. Now he faces a Top-5 matchup for linebackers: Green Bay. Over their last three games, the Packers have averaged the third-most offensive plays (67.7).

Spreads in the range of two touchdowns are rare early in recent NFL seasons. This is the third in the first six weeks. With Joe Burrow injured and Jake Browning floundering, the desperate Bengals traded for QB Joe Flacco on Tuesday. Don't laugh. (At least not loudly.) Flacco, 40, wields enough experience to absorb the Bengals’ playbook quickly and not be terrible. And it was just last month that Flacco's Browns beat Green Bay. The Packers' offense is not consistently vibrant enough for the team to be spotting this many points, especially with K Brandon McManus ailing.

Joe Flacco has always loved throwing to his tight ends. That should benefit Mike Gesicki. He'll also benefit from facing a Packers defense that gives up an NFL-high 7.5 catches per game to opposing tight ends. Green Bay yields the sixth-most receiving yards (65.8) to the position. With the Bengals likely playing catch-up and passing throughout the second half, I bet Gesicki to clear this prop total.

This line assume his TD rate this season (4 TDs on 13 receptions) is unsustainable. He has accounted for 15.5% of team receptions but 50% of his team's pass TDs this season. But don't expect his 50% to drop to 16%. Romeo Doubs has always accounted for 15 to 17% of team receptions (16.6% career) but his % of team's receiving touchdowns is 33%. Jordan Love's pass TD line is -180 over 1.5 on FanDuel. That implies the same 2.3 that the model projects. Based on our % chance he scores at least once, we'd set the line closer to -130.

The Packers are coming out of their bye well rested, while the Bengals were blown out yet again. But this is an inflated number for a Packers team that wasn't playing well before their break. The defense gave up 15 fourth-quarter points to Washington, 13 in the loss to the Browns and 38 points to the Cowboys in just over 30 minutes. The Bengals have excellent passing-game weapons, and Jake Browning showed the ability to pick up garbage time points last week against Detroit. This feels like a pick that looks bad at halftime but ends up coming through, and my line is Packers -10.5 here.