Backing the Titans last week was a painful experience, but getting +7.5 against a broken Texans team is too many points to pass up. Houston rank dead last in the NFL in points per drive (1.22). Tennessee hasn’t protected Cam Ward, and they can’t stop drawing penalties… but it can’t get much worse. They get back RG Kevin Zeitler, while Houston may be without their best CB Derek Stingley. Titans QB’s coach Bo Hardegree will take over play calling duties for Brian Callahan, which could inject some life into their struggling offense. I’ll hold my nose and take the Titans again.

FanDuel. Tony Pollard has actually cleared this line twice this season, but I’m leaning into the tough matchup and taking the under. The Texans run defense profiles as one of the top units in the NFL, and have held two of three opposing running backs under their combined yards line. Pollard is a workhorse, but has been inefficient with his opportunities, averaging just four yards per carry plus target. The Texans secondary is also in flux, having released CJ Gardner-Johnson, and top cornerback Derek Stingley is questionable with an oblique injury. Pollard is not much of a threat in the receiving game, and I’ll count on the Texans defense to hold him in check. I’d bet this line down to under 78.5 combined yards.

FanDuel. Kirk’s output in his Texans debut (25 receiving yards) left a lot to be desired, but the participation stats were encouraging. Kirk was on the field for 81% of CJ Stroud’s dropbacks, and was the recipient of eight of 38 targets. The duo struggled to connect, but Stroud did throw three deep passes to the slot receiver - Kirk’s average depth of target of 12.9 yards was similar to Texans Nico Collins. Of course, this is a one game sample, but it’s evident that Kirk was brought in to complement Collins in the passing game. He’ll now face a Titans defense that’s allowed 164 yards per game to opposing receivers (fourth worst in the NFL). I’d bet this up to over 41.5 receiving yards.

This is a matchup of two offenses that haven't cracked 300 net yards this season, and I've already jumped on the Under. In lower-scoring games, points are at a premium, and I'm willing to lay the -122 at FanDuel to get the hook here. The Texans have scored the fewest points in the league with just 38 through three games, and if that keeps up here the Titans offense won't have to do much to cover. Derek Stingley is expected to miss this game, and with the Titans switching playcallers there's potential to keep this one close. Give me a 17-13 type of game and I'm happy.

There hasn't been much to get excited about this year with either of these teams, but Houston is playing excellent defense to date. Coupled with the struggles of the Texans offense, all three Houston games have finished under 40 points so far. The Titans defense looked great in Week 1 before struggling in two games against what look like pretty good offenses, and their defensive front should have success with an abysmal Texans offensive line. I expect a game similar to what we just saw from Texans-Jaguars that never gets close to going over the total.