This is a weird line with the Panthers winning 30-0 last weekend. This game has the same feeling of UCF-Kansas State yesterday. Carolina’s defense comes in ranking 30th in the league in overall defense. New England should be sharper on offense this afternoon as turnovers cost them the game last week against the Steelers. Drake Maye has shown glimpses of his ability to lead this team as the Patriots are 9th in redzone efficiency thus far.

Bryce Young isn’t necessarily known for his mobility, but he’s starting to use his legs more effectively. Last season, Young concluded the year by going over this rushing yards mark in 5 of the last 7 games. Young ran 5 times for 40 yards in Week 1 to start this season, and picked up a rushing TD with his legs last week. The Patriots defense will get back their best CB Christian Gonzalez, and the Panthers WR room is fairly unimpressive. New England’s defensive line can get pressure up the middle with DT Christian Barmore and company, and force Young to roll outside. We should only need 3-4 rushes from Young to go over this number.

Drake Maye has cleared this prop total in all three games, and he's facing a Carolina defense that's registered just one sack this season. The Panthers rank 30th in pressure rate. Look for Maye to have a big day even if the volume doesn't match last week's 37 attempts.

The Patriots were let down by fumbles last week, mostly by their running backs. After the third fumble, the Pats turned exclusively to Henderson at the position to close out the game, and he finished with 11 carries after seeing just eight in the previous two games combined. His rushing props have accounted for the expected uptick in role, but his receiving props are curiously lagging behind. He had three catches on the final two drives last week to give him at least 19 receiving yards in all three games. This one is certainly worth laddering as I see this as wildly undervalued based on his potential as a pass-catcher.

Caesar’s. I love this matchup for Hunter Henry, who has cleared this line twice in three games this season, and in nine of twelve full games played with Drake Maye, dating back to last season. He’ll face the tight-end funnel pass defense of the Panthers on Sunday. Carolina is allowing a league worst 74 yards to the position, after ranking 31st in DVOA against the position last season (per FTN). I’d bet this line up to over 40.5 yards.