The Jets are 3-1 to the Under at home this season, and 4-2-1 to the Under when playing as the favorite. Speaking of which, I’m not sure the Jets deserve to be -4 favorites here. The Colts will switch back to Anthony Richardson at QB, who has struggled mightily with accuracy. While this Jets defense has been strong against the pass, they have been very beatable against the run. Look for Indy to feed RB Jonathan Taylor, and to try to beat New York at the line of scrimmage. The Jets offense hasn’t gotten any better since acquiring star WR Davante Adams. The Colts defense is now healthier and improving. Play the Under above the key number of 43.

The Colts have flaws, but they can run the ball, they just moved to an infinitely more mobile and explosive QB and the Jets are feeling sorry for themselves with a broken offense and defense. Yeah they have been much better at home, but watch this crowd turn on them with a slow start. Aaron Rodgers is cooked; can't play from behind. NYJ 26th in offensive TDs allowed since firing their coach. 0-5 ATS last 5 Sun games. Colts 7-3 ATS and 8-5 ATS on road since start of '23. NYJ 3-7 ATS and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

He loves to finish drives with his legs and the Jets are bottom 3 in the NFL in success rate vs the run and EPA vs the run since firing their head coach after 5 games. Richardson will be out to make a mark after having to sit behind Joe Flacco and will have plenty of keepers inside the redzone. Jets are just 21st in RZ defense the last 5 weeks and had no clue how to defend QB draws and designed QB runs vs Kyler Murray last weekend. I see more of the same here.

The Jets are curiously a 4 point favorite, but I don't think Jonathan Taylor gets scripted out of this game unless the Jets catch a huge lead. Given the unlikelihood of that scenario, we should see the playoff viable Colts lean heavily on JT (evidence of that is his rush attempt projection at 19). Having Anthony Richardson back at QB should only open up rush lanes for JT and I expect him to hit this prop and his longest rush prop (16.5). JT has hit this number in 5 of his last 6 and the Jets rush defense has been underwhelming this season.

Anthony Richardson's return extends the ceiling and floor for the Colts offense, but considering how much the ceiling looked like the floor with Joe Flacco the last few weeks, I'm treating the change as positive. My biggest worry is the Colts O-line with Bernhard Raimann in doubt, but Richardson's mobility can help neutralize the issue. And that's if the Jets defense finally starts playing up to its potential. I have more confidence in a healthy Colts defense right now, and since the Jets offense has been inconsistent, I disagree with the market that the Jets should be treated like the clear better team here. This line should be 3 at highest.

The Colts kicker has successfully booted at least two field goals in seven straight games. We can't fade him now! In what should be a tight game in the Meadowlands, with ideal weather conditions, look for Gay to get at least two attempts and likely hit them both.

The Colts opted to go back to Anthony Richardson this week, and I expect a big-time effort from the former Florida standout given the backlash he dealt with after his last start. Richardson has gone over this number in four of his six starts this season. Kyler Murray had some success running the ball against the Jets last week, and he isn't on Richardson's level as a runner. I expect Richardson to flirt with 50 rushing yards here.

The Colts going back to Anthony Richardson had to happen, and it will unlock the run game - especially against a Jets D that is 30th in rush D EPA and 29th in success rate since they fired Robert Saleh. Taylor is averaging 88 rush yards/game. However, he has 100+ rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 full games with Richardson. He averages 5.1/carry with AR at QB, with the threat of QB keeper and option ball stressing the D. He averaged just a league average 4.5/carry with immobile Joe Flacco at QB. Colts have to take it slow with Richardson and rely heavily on the run game. I see volume and explosion. Jets got gashed by QB keepers last week and might over-correct.