The public is heavy on the Colts as road dogs here, yet the line has only moved towards the Titans. Colts QB Anthony Richardson will get the start returning from injury. Richardson has some of the worst passing metrics of any qualified QB this season. His accuracy and efficiency have been atrocious to start the year. I don't expect him to find success against this Titans defense, which ranks Top 10 in defensive DVOA. It's going to take some courage to back Titans QB Will Levis, but I still believe he is better than his disastrous mistakes. Indy is a zone-heavy defense with a weak secondary. If Levis does falter again, expect a quick leash. I'd like this even more with Mason Rudolph at QB!

The Titans are likely to be operating from a netural or positive game script and that's a very good thing for a team that already loves to run the ball. It's true that Tony Pollard cedes a good amount of work to Tyjae Spears, but the truth is that Spears can get plenty of work and still leave a lot of meat on the bone for Pollard. Pollard is projected to get 15 carries this week against a Colts team that just got mauled by Tank Bigsby.

Forget everything else. When a matchup brings the best and worst defenses based in yards allowed, other factors pale by comparison. Injuries serve as a partial excuse for Indy's tissue-like D and a few recent absentees could resume action. Still, problem not necessarily solved. On offense, QB Anthony Richardson's return is not a sure-fire blessing as the unit did just as well with Joe Flacco in his stead. The Titans have won eight in a row outright following a bye. Though the coaching staff is new, the holdover players apparently know how to prepare after getting a blow from the schedule.

Indianapolis' rushing defense is bad, having given up an average of 157 yards per game (second worst) and Pollard should be the beneficiary. He's getting loads of touches (21 per game) and has a 15% target share in the passing game. Assuming the game is close (as I expect), I would be surprised if the volume and production isn't there for Tennessee's top RB.

Over the last 42 plays of their loss to Jacksonville, the Colts gave up 419 yards -- nearly 10 yards a play. This is the ultimate get-right spot for a Titans' offense that is sticking with Will Levis. He had the bye to re-set and rest his injured shoulder. If he can't go, I have actually more confidence in Mason Rudolph to dissect Indy. Either way, even with Anthony Richardson practicing Wednesday, I don't think we're going to get a better number on the home team. This injury-decimated Colts' defense was on the field for 69 plays against Jacksonville and goes on the road for the second straight week. Grab the 1.5 points at FanDuel.