The Colts have a few edges in this game, most notably on the sidelines. The Bears should have more offensive opportunities against a tough-to-stomach Indianapolis run defense, but they have not proven they can run the ball successfully, and Caleb Williams still needs to actually make his throws. We have seen him struggle with that through two games as he continues to get adjusted to the NFL. Anthony Richardson has simultaneously been flashy and disappointing, as expected, but his big arm and physical style should allow enough chunk plays. This is a legitimate must-win for Indy already in Week 3, which should be motivated to overcome last week’s embarrassment.

The Colts are just a couple plays away from being 2-0, instead they are 0-2 and in desperation mode to avoid an 0-3 start that would essentially spell the death knell on their playoff hopes. The Bears don't have a strong enough run game to exploit the weakness of the Indy defense, and we'll back what should be an inspired Colts team to escape with a win.

I have to think the Bears try to get Swift going versus the NFL's 32nd ranked rush defense to take pressure off Caleb Williams. Even though Swift was bottled up last week against the Texans, he still carried the ball 14 times. Josh Jacobs carried the ball 32 times versus the Colts and now Indy is without DeForest Buckner. Swift should be in line for a heavy workload on Sunday.

The primary risk with starting rookie QBs from the get-go is they can become shell-shocked. Houston sacked Caleb Williams seven times last Sunday, and he has yet to throw a TD pass. Rookies need a full complement of help, and Williams won't have it with WR Keenan Allen out. Williams will be a star someday but not likely soon. A beat-up Colts defense should be able to contain Chicago enough for big-play QB Anthony Richardson, who tops the league for passing yards per attempt, to bedevil a defense that gets victimized by large gains.

If Moore doesn't blow up this week against the likes of Jaylon Jones, Dallis Flowers, and Samuel Womack III, I have no idea what to tell you about his 2024 outlook. This should be a get right spot for a player with a 27% target share and 36% air yards share through two weeks. I'm thinking 75+ yards seems well within reach against this inexperienced Colts secondary, assuming Caleb Williams' accuracy improves for Chicago.

The Colts have the offensive talent to be explosive, but they have to get off to a fast start. Defensively, they should find some opportunities to get after rookie Caleb Williams. While I expect the Bears to play much better offensively against a sketchy Colts defense, Indy finds themselves in a 'must win' situation here in Week 3 and subsequently we'll see them play their best ball.

The Bears offense has been awful through two weeks, gaining half a yard per play less than the Panthers. But the defense has picked up where it left off last season, carrying the team to a win in Week 1 then holding an explosive Texans attack to just one TD in Houston. That D gets a Colts attack that boomed in Week 1 and busted in Week 2, and I expect they'll struggle against a strong Chicago stop unit. The Bears offense should finally have some success against a Colts defense that's been run all over even against an offense without a threat to pass last week. I don't see DeForest Buckner returning for this game, making Indy's defensive issues even greater.